AUD / USD

Discussion in 'Interactive Trading' started by SLT, Jun 7, 2014.

  1. Alpha-Bet

    Alpha-Bet Well-Known Member

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    only a fundy view
    no bearing on cold hard trading....
     
  2. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    A change in the wind?

    Most sentiment analysis from the big banks places AUD sentiment at neutral to bullish. This is a change from bullish most recently (they're only bankers remember).

    Here is a possible, maybe, kind-of hint of change based on volume and OI.

    [​IMG]

    Commenting on the above Matt Simpson writes:

    Source: http://www.thinkforex.com/market-analysis/traders-corner/2014/07/28/back-to-the-futures-volume-and-cots-analysis/#.U9XnmGOLXao
     
  3. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Doji names keep getting stranger. ;)

    Thanks for the post.
     
  4. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Updated EW chart for Aussie
    Bearish structure while V is not taken out
     

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  5. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    One for you S, using NFP on M15.
     

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  6. Alpha-Bet

    Alpha-Bet Well-Known Member

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    Nice catch.... :)
     
  7. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Isn't that a bit of a stretch though?

    I mean, I've seen cleaner setups.. unless I'm missing something obvious. Did you catch this before or after the price adjustment?

    (Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
     
  8. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    • View that the run down was overdone (technically and fundamentally)
    • Ample preceding divergence to get my attention
    • Better than 88.6% retracement to form a DB while failing to make new low
    • MACD already positive before that last leg down
    • The extremely attractive risk on offer
    • Made plenty shorting the GBPUSD ;)

    A no-brainer as they say.
     
  9. Alpha-Bet

    Alpha-Bet Well-Known Member

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    two spinning tops @ 23.6. sign of indecision. was a warning.
     
  10. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    I guess it was. I read it as 'waiting' in the pre-NFP context and reassurance that the market wasn't too interested in heading lower.
     
  11. Alpha-Bet

    Alpha-Bet Well-Known Member

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    yeah, pre NFP is ballsy. time for a backfill though.
     
  12. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    True. I didn't tempt them with much... :))
     
  13. shopster

    shopster Well-Known Member

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    if you knew the setup you would have been loaded for the move.

    you trade thru the news, not after it .

    all retail sits there like " a deer in the headlites "

    the woulda, coulda, shoulda yapping about it later means zip.

    carry on.

    s
     
  14. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Exactly.. the post could have been a Capt. Hindsight chart..

    (Don't take that the wrong way AusDoc, I don't think you're 'that' type at all, and I assumed you had taken that on a solid setup..)

    I just wanted to see what AusDoc's thoughts were leading into that move.. what 'made the trade compelling'.

    Actually, to be specific, what made the trade compelling in that last little move up before the big spike; There had been a few divergences before that point but none that followed through with a move.. so unless you'd take each one I don't see what made that last little spurt stand out.
     
  15. dentist007

    dentist007 Well-Known Member

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    audusd
    4 hour data
    a pump or a dump
     

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  16. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Yes, interesting. Break of flat side of triangle and trendline to head higher or time for one more stab lower? We shall see.
     
  17. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully you found the answer earlier but a couple of charts are attached that might add something. On the M15 chart the fib tool was applied on close of the final leg down and I placed my entry, stop and two profit target orders (then waited a little longer than I had hoped - I don't usually trade NFP but am taking afresh look at this).

    Note that the setup existed pretty clearly on an hourly chart also. Note the clear support level. When all the ducks line up a trader will engage. A question to consider would be, given the setup, why wouldn't you take the trade? I trade what I see since, at least when I'm awake, the market doesn't send me a telegram. ;)
     

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  18. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    cool.. Yeah, I noticed a few things from before :p But this will help others reading along.

    :thumbsup:

    It was a solid trade regardless. I do love how the news jolt just ended up being a catalyst for what was already forming beforehand.
     
  19. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Or, what was setup before the move. ;)
     
  20. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/chinese-demand-rush-for-australia-homes-here-to-stay-ausin-says.html

    Welp, now that everyone's talking about it, time for the Chinese market to dry up. ;)
     

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