AUD / USD


AusDoc

Well-Known Member
A change in the wind?

Most sentiment analysis from the big banks places AUD sentiment at neutral to bullish. This is a change from bullish most recently (they're only bankers remember).

Here is a possible, maybe, kind-of hint of change based on volume and OI.



Commenting on the above Matt Simpson writes:

The Rikshaw Man Doji is of particular interest because the Futures Charts (left) shows this was on increasing volume to suggest a 'change in hands' from buyers to sellers. Additionally the CFTC data (right) shows that the ratio between Net Longs and Shorts has reduced whilst Open Interest has also increased, to also suggest sellers are coming into the market.

Whilst volatility remains low it would be wise to not become too 'sensationalist', but it does raise more confidence that we are witnessing a topping pattern forming on the weekly timeframe. Whilst volatility remains low on D1 then it is still wise to not become too attached to positions and not outstay your welcome whilst the [suspected] topping pattern continues to form.
Source: http://www.thinkforex.com/market-analysis/traders-corner/2014/07/28/back-to-the-futures-volume-and-cots-analysis/#.U9XnmGOLXao
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Isn't that a bit of a stretch though?

I mean, I've seen cleaner setups.. unless I'm missing something obvious. Did you catch this before or after the price adjustment?

(Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Jack said:
(Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
  • View that the run down was overdone (technically and fundamentally)
  • Ample preceding divergence to get my attention
  • Better than 88.6% retracement to form a DB while failing to make new low
  • MACD already positive before that last leg down
  • The extremely attractive risk on offer
  • Made plenty shorting the GBPUSD ;)

A no-brainer as they say.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Alpha-Bet said:
two spinning tops @ 23.6. sign of indecision. was a warning.
I guess it was. I read it as 'waiting' in the pre-NFP context and reassurance that the market wasn't too interested in heading lower.
 

shopster

Well-Known Member
Jack said:
I mean, I've seen cleaner setups.. unless I'm missing something obvious. Did you catch this before or after the price adjustment?

(Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
if you knew the setup you would have been loaded for the move.

you trade thru the news, not after it .

all retail sits there like " a deer in the headlites "

the woulda, coulda, shoulda yapping about it later means zip.

carry on.

s
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Exactly.. the post could have been a Capt. Hindsight chart..

(Don't take that the wrong way AusDoc, I don't think you're 'that' type at all, and I assumed you had taken that on a solid setup..)

I just wanted to see what AusDoc's thoughts were leading into that move.. what 'made the trade compelling'.

Actually, to be specific, what made the trade compelling in that last little move up before the big spike; There had been a few divergences before that point but none that followed through with a move.. so unless you'd take each one I don't see what made that last little spurt stand out.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
dentist007 said:
audusd
4 hour data
a pump or a dump
Yes, interesting. Break of flat side of triangle and trendline to head higher or time for one more stab lower? We shall see.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Jack said:
Actually, to be specific, what made the trade compelling in that last little move up before the big spike; There had been a few divergences before that point but none that followed through with a move.. so unless you'd take each one I don't see what made that last little spurt stand out.
Hopefully you found the answer earlier but a couple of charts are attached that might add something. On the M15 chart the fib tool was applied on close of the final leg down and I placed my entry, stop and two profit target orders (then waited a little longer than I had hoped - I don't usually trade NFP but am taking afresh look at this).

Note that the setup existed pretty clearly on an hourly chart also. Note the clear support level. When all the ducks line up a trader will engage. A question to consider would be, given the setup, why wouldn't you take the trade? I trade what I see since, at least when I'm awake, the market doesn't send me a telegram. ;)
 

Attachments

jack

Administrator
Staff member
cool.. Yeah, I noticed a few things from before :p But this will help others reading along.

:thumbsup:

It was a solid trade regardless. I do love how the news jolt just ended up being a catalyst for what was already forming beforehand.
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Jack said:
cool.. Yeah, I noticed a few things from before :p But this will help others reading along.

:thumbsup:

It was a solid trade regardless. I do love how the news jolt just ended up being a catalyst for what was already forming beforehand.
Or, what was setup before the move. ;)
 

sqa

Village Scribe
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/chinese-demand-rush-for-australia-homes-here-to-stay-ausin-says.html

Welp, now that everyone's talking about it, time for the Chinese market to dry up. ;)
 

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