Source: http://www.thinkforex.com/market-analysis/traders-corner/2014/07/28/back-to-the-futures-volume-and-cots-analysis/#.U9XnmGOLXaoThe Rikshaw Man Doji is of particular interest because the Futures Charts (left) shows this was on increasing volume to suggest a 'change in hands' from buyers to sellers. Additionally the CFTC data (right) shows that the ratio between Net Longs and Shorts has reduced whilst Open Interest has also increased, to also suggest sellers are coming into the market.
Whilst volatility remains low it would be wise to not become too 'sensationalist', but it does raise more confidence that we are witnessing a topping pattern forming on the weekly timeframe. Whilst volatility remains low on D1 then it is still wise to not become too attached to positions and not outstay your welcome whilst the [suspected] topping pattern continues to form.
Jack said:(Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
if you knew the setup you would have been loaded for the move.Jack said:I mean, I've seen cleaner setups.. unless I'm missing something obvious. Did you catch this before or after the price adjustment?
(Not being critical, just interested in what made that trade compelling before the move.)
Hopefully you found the answer earlier but a couple of charts are attached that might add something. On the M15 chart the fib tool was applied on close of the final leg down and I placed my entry, stop and two profit target orders (then waited a little longer than I had hoped - I don't usually trade NFP but am taking afresh look at this).Jack said:Actually, to be specific, what made the trade compelling in that last little move up before the big spike; There had been a few divergences before that point but none that followed through with a move.. so unless you'd take each one I don't see what made that last little spurt stand out.
Or, what was setup before the move.Jack said:cool.. Yeah, I noticed a few things from before But this will help others reading along.
It was a solid trade regardless. I do love how the news jolt just ended up being a catalyst for what was already forming beforehand.