AUD / USD


AusDoc

Well-Known Member
a nice lite snack.
LOL ;D

Gotta love that Fib tool. Did a good job on your M5 chart.

What's the little yellow rectangle on the left, sitting in what looks like a TMA channel? The one on the right shows the session high wicks but the other one is a mystery.
 

shopster

Well-Known Member
Chucky,

where is your post on shop garbage.

did you moderate it out.......:)

" Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened. "

cheers,

s
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
@Alpha-Bet

Looks good. I assume your precision exit was at the mini pull. Where exactly was your entry?
 

shopster

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
@Alpha-Bet

Looks good. I assume your precision exit was at the mini pull. Where exactly was your entry?
the correct question is what do you see and where do you think it is .........?

s
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
shopster said:
the correct question is what do you see and where do you think it is .........?
No, that may be your question but mine is the one I asked. I don't need you to put words in my mouth shopster, I make more than enough of my own. :))

I reviewed your thread and recognise the approach in Alph-Bet's post. Anyone can post after the even charts as you well know. It constitutes an interesting contribution as is but would be significantly enhanced, IMO, if it clearly indicated exactly where the method, or at least the trader, made an entry. Perhaps Alph-Bet will be good enough to share this.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Yes I could see you going through a few keyboards and pens!

entry was the fully diverged macd on the shoulder.

earlier hint was given as it touched .14 fib to form top shoulder before finishing shoulder formation and heading south for confluence exit.

entries are easy..
it's the exits that are more problematic.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
shopster said:
... what do you see and where do you think it is .........?
Happy to show you. However please note that I did not take this trade and wasn't watching this market at the time. Pity really as it was an easy scalp with my method too.

The attached chart shows my approach. It basically involves reading the price action story. I show my timing zones and I also show my buy and sell zones and proprietary MAT which basically takes the place of the Zero Lag MACD shown by Alpha-Bet. The relevant support zone is also shown.

The market rallied strongly through the Frankfurt open (which was another easy buy from the bottom using the identical method). It had a typical pull back into the buy zone for another very easy scalp. It rallied through the London open forming a new high. At this point the story is scremaing sell with a very strong MAT divergence inside the timing zone (marked).

From the high to the pullback into the buy zone formed a 20 minute range suitable for applying the Fib tool. Clearly there was no buy indicated from this buy zone pullback due to the divergence and timing, so we are looking to sell unless the high is blown away. It wasn't.

Entry is made by a pending sell order placed at the 61.8% retracement (0.9428). The chart shows some higher prints but I wouldn't be interested in those crumbs on an M5 chart and prefer a higher probability fill at my chosen price over a missed and possibly sloppy market entry if there is no higer fill.

Now we are into trade management. If scalping I would have exited all or part of my position instantly on seeing the wick on the closed candle that broke the 200% Fib level. That level is 0.9415 so take a couple of pips off that if you like for an initial exit. Now we watch and wait patiently.

The bounce entered my sell zone and I would have targeted a sell at 0.9420. As we watch the price follow the sell zone lower into the New York open zone an eye is kept on the MAT which is forming another divergence right on time. We are also entering my target zone which is the support zone drawn on the chart. Full exit for profit would have been at 0.9406 or lower.

With my method there is never any doubt about exits. I take the view that if you have no rules or consistent method for exits then you don't yet have a completed trading plan.

The market then went about resetting for yet another trade but as I can't trade 24 hours a day that would have to be left for others to take.

This is trading not made simple but kept simple. Unfortunately most people want to make out that it's complicated. People are complicated, trading is simple. If people weren't so complicated then trading could actually be easy!

Anyway, thanks for the question shopster. I hope someone finds this useful.
 

Attachments

shopster

Well-Known Member
the entry is on the fully diverged and corked right shoulder of the h and s setup at the .86 retrace.
a pin bar load at the fib zero line.

it really is that simple.


" the Frankfurt open. " is that a tournament.........:)

s
 

TopFroxx

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Happy to show you. However please note that I did not take this trade and wasn't watching this market at the time. Pity really as it was an easy scalp with my method too.

The attached chart shows my approach. It basically involves reading the price action story. I show my timing zones and I also show my buy and sell zones and proprietary MAT which basically takes the place of the Zero Lag MACD shown by Alpha-Bet. The relevant support zone is also shown.

The market rallied strongly through the Frankfurt open (which was another easy buy from the bottom using the identical method). It had a typical pull back into the buy zone for another very easy scalp. It rallied through the London open forming a new high. At this point the story is scremaing sell with a very strong MAT divergence inside the timing zone (marked).

From the high to the pullback into the buy zone formed a 20 minute range suitable for applying the Fib tool. Clearly there was no buy indicated from this buy zone pullback due to the divergence and timing, so we are looking to sell unless the high is blown away. It wasn't.

Entry is made by a pending sell order placed at the 61.8% retracement (0.9428). The chart shows some higher prints but I wouldn't be interested in those crumbs on an M5 chart and prefer a higher probability fill at my chosen price over a missed and possibly sloppy market entry if there is no higer fill.

Now we are into trade management. If scalping I would have exited all or part of my position instantly on seeing the wick on the closed candle that broke the 200% Fib level. That level is 0.9415 so take a couple of pips off that if you like for an initial exit. Now we watch and wait patiently.

The bounce entered my sell zone and I would have targeted a sell at 0.9420. As we watch the price follow the sell zone lower into the New York open zone an eye is kept on the MAT which is forming another divergence right on time. We are also entering my target zone which is the support zone drawn on the chart. Full exit for profit would have been at 0.9406 or lower.

With my method there is never any doubt about exits. I take the view that if you have no rules or consistent method for exits then you don't yet have a completed trading plan.

The market then went about resetting for yet another trade but as I can't trade 24 hours a day that would have to be left for others to take.

This is trading not made simple but kept simple. Unfortunately most people want to make out that it's complicated. People are complicated, trading is simple. If people weren't so complicated then trading could actually be easy!

Anyway, thanks for the question shopster. I hope someone finds this useful.
hi ausdoc, thanks for the insight. the light pink and blue rectangles are your buy and sell zones, right? how do you define those? time of day based?
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
TopFroxx said:
hi ausdoc, thanks for the insight. the light pink and blue rectangles are your buy and sell zones, right? how do you define those? time of day based?
Hi TopFroxx, you're welcome. I guess colours vary between monitors so here is a copy with some labels.

The MAT isn't really necessary and I usually turn it off but on small timeframe scalping it is very useful for spotting divergences. I think it is better than a MACD and an AO, etc but I designed it so I'm biased. Any similar tool that you know intimately that reveals divergence can be used. Everything above that tool is what really counts.

Please let me know if anything is still unclear.
 

Attachments

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
AusDoc,

see you're playing a similar game with divergence and fibs.
the ma crossover providing the trigger.

there's more than one way to skin a cat as they say

cheers
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
G'day Alph-Bet,

Yep that's right, a very similar method. Not ma crossovers - as you know that's all about lag - but divergence and fibs certainly, with an awareness of time and support and resistance.

As you say, many ways, same cat.

Cheers
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
shopster said:
Chucky,

where is your post on shop garbage.

did you moderate it out.......:)

" Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened. "

cheers,

s
Bigger men stick around and watch over the smaller ones... 8)

All the best,

C
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Here's an extract from brushTURKEY, 26 June 2014.

The Australian dollar as a proxy to the China miracle is looking good. We are seeing pullbacks and consolidation but remember there is still aggressive selling by bears going on who think China is about to fall over and there is too much iron ore in the world. Wrong on both counts as previously discussed. So the Australian dollar is both a fabulous investment opportunity and a must have for Australian exporters who should be hedged out a few years at lower levels by now. As we suggested all year.

The big news is that the market rallied on a 2.9% GDP drop in Q1 in the USA. If there was ever a case of all the bad news is priced in and out of the way this is it! On a medium to long term view, perhaps even short term as well, the stock market is as I occasionally like to say, a screaming BUY!!!

Durable goods orders in the US excluding military and aircraft rose 0,7% in May. This is a good number and in line with our sharp acceleration for the rest of the year for the broad economy scenario. We will be seeing GDP numbers above 3% this year. This second quarter is very strong indeed.

Overall the world is looking good and asset prices generally of all forms are headed much higher.
The author is Clifford Bennett, once rated the “world’s most accurate currency forecaster” by Bloomberg News NY. He's also the author of Warrior Trading (Wiley). Google his name if interested.

It looks to me as though some big players have been milking this pair for the last few days, under the usual pretexts. Carry trade is said to be picking up again.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Good for some Aussie strength - Pressure remains on the USD.




Source: Colin Twiggs, Trading Diary, 26 June 2014
 

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