For a sense of completion, here is the result for BNPP.AusDoc said:Here's one for the record.
8:14 PM - 4 Sep 2014
BNPP recommends selling AUD/USD at market to target 0.9050, with a stop up at 0.9510
Position documented in attached charts. Let's see what happens.
Could such a big FX playing bank get it wrong? Do you think it's possible that a bank wanting to go long would issue such a recommendation?
Our short AUDUSD trade recommendation reached target this morning at 0.9050 (entry 0.9345 on 4 Sept.). We close for a 3.2% gain.
Could be right, could be wrong. MS are usually the latter. I think they get their currency strategic views by reading the newspapers, they are so far behind. When they make forecasts they tend to hold onto them way past their use by date and never seem to get any of them right anyway.GdayFx said:Chris Lori camp/morgan stanley calling Aussie to 0.8400 by year end & 0.7600 by end of 2015
Clifford Bennett, 1 October 2014I will again forecast a move to .9650 within 3-6 months, and a move to $1.0300 in 12-36 months.
AusDoc said:Do you really think they'll need to? We're talking about the Reverse Bank of Australia so they very well might, they rarely get anything right. But whether or not they will actually need to, that's another matter.
It may be easy to be a bit down on the Aussie economy and no doubt some reasons can be found. In my view the little Aussie battler of an economy is doing just fine and operating normally (despite the RBA). But for every buyer we need a seller so we must have market participants who look at the same things and draw opposite conclusions. Without this quirk of human nature we would have no markets.
My sense is that the Aussie economy is traveling well. The data and feeling around at present reflects nothing more than the clutch being put in. It may feel like we're losing momentum but it's just a brief sensation while we change gears.
We are changing gears, there's no doubt about that. We are presently in transition from a mining-based boom with high international sensitivity to a more sustainable and less internationally sensitive infrastructure development phase. This is all normal cyclical activity.
Of course during changes like this we have no shortage of Chicken Littles running around screaming that the sky is falling. But this is not the end of the mining industry and the sky is not falling.