AUD / USD

Discussion in 'Interactive Trading' started by SLT, Jun 7, 2014.

  1. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Weekly Highs and lows through the consolidation period
     

    Attached Files:

  2. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    An image to keep in mind when next you listen to the media trying to give a million reasons why the Aussie should decline.

    [​IMG]

    Heaps of foreign investment capital keeps flowing into Australia. In fact, the graphic is already out of date since China recently overtook the USA and is now the largest source of foreign funds inflows.

    In trading this just doesn't matter really, you just trade what you see, but it is not a bad idea to have an idea of what the real fundamentals are doing, not just the rubbish that creates "news." I mention it because I am well aware that even though technical traders claim that they don't listen to or follow the news or fundamentals, they still have their insidious and inexorable effects on trader psychology. Maybe this will help with the balance. :)
     
  3. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Here's one for the record.

    8:14 PM - 4 Sep 2014
    BNPP recommends selling AUD/USD at market to target 0.9050, with a stop up at 0.9510

    Position documented in attached charts. Let's see what happens.

    Could such a big FX playing bank get it wrong? Do you think it's possible that a bank wanting to go long would issue such a recommendation?
     

    Attached Files:

  4. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    You can watch this longer term, but here's an update already.

    The DXY went vertical based largely on EU weakness and then partly on US data. Remember, that's the other side of the AUDUSD, so the Aussie should have crashed, much like the GBP did.

    But what did it do? See the charts.

    What did the bank recommend again?
     

    Attached Files:

  5. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

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    They make it up as they go along, literally!
     
  6. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Well they're still making it up. Here is the BNPP nett positions graph.

    [​IMG]

    They reiterated their recommendation.

    [​IMG]

    So what will happen. Are they happy with the run up to fill their shorts? Or are they really going long and want people to sell to them? >:D

    What will happen at NFP. Let's watch and see... Note the relative positioning of Cable, Fiber and Aussie pre NFP.
     
  7. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    What currently interests me is the clear divergence between Cable and Fiber, ie overall positioning and tonight's PA.
     
  8. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I've been watching that. Something is afoot me thinks.

    Addit:
    Milan Cutkovic ‏@MilanCutkovic 1m

    Barclays: EUR vols too high outright, EUR vols too high relative to other usd pairs like AUD,GBP, Correlations are high in eurgbp(vol cheap)
     
  9. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Goldman Calls End to Iron Age After ‘Dramatic’ Drop in Price

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/goldman-calls-end-to-iron-age-after-dramatic-drop-in-ore-price.html

    Oh well, it was good while it lasted... :))
     
  10. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    There goes the prospect of a decent WA credit rating
     
  11. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's sad, if not a little sobering, to realise we are seen as just a big pile of rocks.

    But then, lately it seems, NZ is just a big dairy ;D

    Reminds me of the Aussie joke I like to tell in some circles. Goes like this.

    We've completed our study into global warming and rising sea levels.
    We have some good news and some bad news.
    The bad news is that Sydney as we know it will become completely submerged.
    That's terrible, what's the good news?
    Melbourne will go first.

    Enjoy, and if Australian. remember to tell this to all your friends from Victoria >:D
     
  12. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    years ago when visiting Melbourne I was asked "what do you think of Melbourne"

    I lied, in truth I do not think about it at all.
     
  13. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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  14. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    LMAF

    the truest of them all:

    "You pretend the Sydney-Melbourne rivalry doesn't exist. Which it doesn't. Because Sydney doesn't care. And that really shits you.
     
  15. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    I was short from Aussie's recent highs, can you believe i closed it out, half way down from where it is now... expecting a correction. Somebody slap me :(
     
  16. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  17. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Why Rod!... the things you're into :eek:
     
  18. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    lol. My wife came into my office and spotted the pic of the girl 'washing' the Ferrari, she stated, "now I know what you do in here!!!" I responded, "um arr, just like to admire fine automobiles"

    true story
     
  19. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Well you were lucky, you're still on speaking terms. Now if she spots the picture on this page it may be different. Or maybe I'm thinking of my wife! :)) :)) :))
     
  20. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    probably would ask the reason why she does not receive the same attention.
     

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