AUD / USD


AusDoc

Well-Known Member
An image to keep in mind when next you listen to the media trying to give a million reasons why the Aussie should decline.



Heaps of foreign investment capital keeps flowing into Australia. In fact, the graphic is already out of date since China recently overtook the USA and is now the largest source of foreign funds inflows.

In trading this just doesn't matter really, you just trade what you see, but it is not a bad idea to have an idea of what the real fundamentals are doing, not just the rubbish that creates "news." I mention it because I am well aware that even though technical traders claim that they don't listen to or follow the news or fundamentals, they still have their insidious and inexorable effects on trader psychology. Maybe this will help with the balance. :)
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Here's one for the record.

8:14 PM - 4 Sep 2014
BNPP recommends selling AUD/USD at market to target 0.9050, with a stop up at 0.9510

Position documented in attached charts. Let's see what happens.

Could such a big FX playing bank get it wrong? Do you think it's possible that a bank wanting to go long would issue such a recommendation?
 

Attachments

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
You can watch this longer term, but here's an update already.

The DXY went vertical based largely on EU weakness and then partly on US data. Remember, that's the other side of the AUDUSD, so the Aussie should have crashed, much like the GBP did.

But what did it do? See the charts.

What did the bank recommend again?
 

Attachments

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Well they're still making it up. Here is the BNPP nett positions graph.



They reiterated their recommendation.



So what will happen. Are they happy with the run up to fill their shorts? Or are they really going long and want people to sell to them? >:D

What will happen at NFP. Let's watch and see... Note the relative positioning of Cable, Fiber and Aussie pre NFP.
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
What currently interests me is the clear divergence between Cable and Fiber, ie overall positioning and tonight's PA.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
rod178 said:
What currently interests me is the clear divergence between Cable and Fiber, ie overall positioning and tonight's PA.
Yes, I've been watching that. Something is afoot me thinks.

Addit:
Milan Cutkovic ‏@MilanCutkovic 1m

Barclays: EUR vols too high outright, EUR vols too high relative to other usd pairs like AUD,GBP, Correlations are high in eurgbp(vol cheap)
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Goldman Calls End to Iron Age After ‘Dramatic’ Drop in Price

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/goldman-calls-end-to-iron-age-after-dramatic-drop-in-ore-price.html

Oh well, it was good while it lasted... :))
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Goldman Calls End to Iron Age After ‘Dramatic’ Drop in Price

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/goldman-calls-end-to-iron-age-after-dramatic-drop-in-ore-price.html

Oh well, it was good while it lasted... :))
There goes the prospect of a decent WA credit rating
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
rod178 said:
There goes the prospect of a decent WA credit rating
Yeah, it's sad, if not a little sobering, to realise we are seen as just a big pile of rocks.

But then, lately it seems, NZ is just a big dairy ;D

Reminds me of the Aussie joke I like to tell in some circles. Goes like this.

We've completed our study into global warming and rising sea levels.
We have some good news and some bad news.
The bad news is that Sydney as we know it will become completely submerged.
That's terrible, what's the good news?
Melbourne will go first.

Enjoy, and if Australian. remember to tell this to all your friends from Victoria >:D
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
years ago when visiting Melbourne I was asked "what do you think of Melbourne"

I lied, in truth I do not think about it at all.
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
LMAF

the truest of them all:

"You pretend the Sydney-Melbourne rivalry doesn't exist. Which it doesn't. Because Sydney doesn't care. And that really shits you.
 

SLT

Official GDayFX.com Rep
I was short from Aussie's recent highs, can you believe i closed it out, half way down from where it is now... expecting a correction. Somebody slap me :(
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
GdayFx said:
I was short from Aussie's recent highs, can you believe i closed it out, half way down from where it is now... expecting a correction. Somebody slap me :(
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Why Rod!... the things you're into :eek:
lol. My wife came into my office and spotted the pic of the girl 'washing' the Ferrari, she stated, "now I know what you do in here!!!" I responded, "um arr, just like to admire fine automobiles"

true story
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
rod178 said:
lol. My wife came into my office and spotted the pic of the girl 'washing' the Ferrari, she stated, "now I know what you do in here!!!" I responded, "um arr, just like to admire fine automobiles"

true story
Well you were lucky, you're still on speaking terms. Now if she spots the picture on this page it may be different. Or maybe I'm thinking of my wife! :)) :)) :))
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Well you were lucky, you're still on speaking terms. Now if she spots the picture on this page it may be different. Or maybe I'm thinking of my wife! :)) :)) :))
probably would ask the reason why she does not receive the same attention.
 

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