Scalping with Alpha-Bet

jack

Administrator
Staff member
It's going to be hard to pick this bottom so I'm still playing AUD to the downside for now on scalps.


(This was a bit more than a scalp, but only because we plunged down from earlier, so I'd want to look for some type continuation only with less momentum.)

Like you though, I keep eyeing the long.. for a swing trade I'm interested in setting up a very low leverage long position and see if we get a squeeze back up. But I suck at this kinda trade (multi-year lows seeing support, it's like not knowing where the floor is..) and I hold out for too many positive signals so by the time I'm confident to go long most of the move has taken place. :S

My interest will pick up highly if we touch 0.8850's within the next few days. (Again, we're talking a very low leveraged swing trade.)

And 0.90 is such a psychological number I can see price getting very choppy around it (and faking me out in the process should I try and fade a breach below) so I'd be hands off til it clears lower or rockets away. (Usually I love even penny numbers, especially 10 cent round numbers, since you can fade small moves past them for a clean scalp on the clustering of orders being built up around them... but not when we haven't seen the number in about 3 years, things could get violent..)
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
This is just a slice of the total market, and it's only looking at retail, but to illustrate the round number thing:




Left chart)
Left bars below ~0.90 (in blue) show stop limits. Stops on a long position would also count as a 'sell stop limit' order but I'm not sure if they appear on this graph (it might just be stop limit orders set to open new positions.)

Orange bars below ~0.90 are limit buys.. So some want to draw that line in the sand and hope not to get run over.

On the right chart)
We see open positions... typical retail longs (some since 1.02+'s) holding onto their underwater positions forever (or until margin call)... but notice what's below 0.90? ...Nothing. After 3 years since we've last touched prices this low, there's practically zero open retail positions (shorts got killed long ago on the way up, and longs took profit all the same.) So yeah, below 0.90 is a bit of a no-man's land.. expect all kinds of nastiness to shake out weak hands and fake people out.

--

PS: Alpha, I just re-read and realized you might still be holding that long position. :S This wasn't meant to dump on your choice of direction. (I mentioned that I want to go long myself after all.) I just thought the prices we're seeing now are significant (on a monthly timeframe point of view) and wanted to point out why I felt that way since you guys punt around AUDUSD. :S
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Alpha-Bet said:
Long Aud/Usd for swing acct... @.9060
TP ......................................@.9120
S/L......................................@.8995
TP....................................... Modified .9115 . 261.8 15 minute Fib
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Jack said:
It's going to be hard to pick this bottom so I'm still playing AUD to the downside for now on scalps.


(This was a bit more than a scalp, but only because we plunged down from earlier, so I'd want to look for some type continuation only with less momentum.)

Like you though, I keep eyeing the long.. for a swing trade I'm interested in setting up a very low leverage long position and see if we get a squeeze back up. But I suck at this kinda trade (multi-year lows seeing support, it's like not knowing where the floor is..) and I hold out for too many positive signals so by the time I'm confident to go long most of the move has taken place. :S

My interest will pick up highly if we touch 0.8850's within the next few days. (Again, we're talking a very low leveraged swing trade.)

And 0.90 is such a psychological number I can see price getting very choppy around it (and faking me out in the process should I try and fade a breach below) so I'd be hands off til it clears lower or rockets away. (Usually I love even penny numbers, especially 10 cent round numbers, since you can fade small moves past them for a clean scalp on the clustering of orders being built up around them... but not when we haven't seen the number in about 3 years, things could get violent..)
Nice scalp... 8)

Aud/Usd selloff (.9280's) was a one legger top with a Head and Shoulders @.14 Fib on hourly.
We found support and bounced off the hourly 161.8 Fib. So there's plenty of room on the downside for the aussie.
5.76 Fib projection is .8225

I'll post a chart later.

Regarding funnymentals, the RBA is jawboning the markets with RBA head Stevens stating that rising inflation will not have bearing on future rate cuts. Drop in AUD has pushed price of oil for domestic market. Headline inflation on the rise.
I don't trade fundamentals. Just read the biz pages so when I talk to non traders about the markets I can sound half intelligent ;D
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
Lol, to much pressure for me. :) Will start entering too early or to late just to try and prove i am good/right. lol :\

eur out 7.8

i am done.

Cheers!
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Ramy3 said:
Lol, to much pressure for me. :) Will start entering too early or to late just to try and prove i am good/right. lol :\

eur out 7.8

i am done.

Cheers!
Nothing to prove when you trade.

If you're trying to prove something, you're not ready to trade.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Ramy3 said:
Lol, to much pressure for me. :) Will start entering too early or to late just to try and prove i am good/right. lol :\

eur out 7.8

i am done.

Cheers!
Trade away mate. You can trade. Believe you belong.... :)
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
Trying to keep my ego at bay. :) Not good for trading.

Kind of ironic as posting here boosts it. So ,will need to cool down a bit on the posting thingy.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Ramy3 said:
Trying to keep my ego at bay. :) Not good for trading.

Kind of ironic as posting here boosts it. So ,will need to cool down a bit on the posting thingy.
No room for ego in this game.

Shit, my ego has been destroyed this week.

I'll win......
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
Ramy3 said:
Long aud .89670
tp 89755 sl89600

This is nerve racking, lol.
Out -6.8 told ya lol. ego said, ah this looks good, lol. No more posting for me mate. :) Will make it back plus a bit next trun. No worries.

Cheers!
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
Always had issues with publicly posting my things. May get over it one day,. would not hold my breath though, lol. :/
 

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