Hopiplaka's Journal

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
GBPUSD Week 38

Although the EURUSD present a very nice opportunity yesterday with a clear order block, GBPUSD could be a bit more tricky to find the correct entry level.

Remember last week we made a swing low. What is of interest when a swing low is created?
The open/close/high/low of each of the 3 bars creating the swing low.

So on chart 1 I laid out the necessary support levels.
Next: We wait for price to hit a support level in a specific kill zone: price hit the level during London open. The level is also close to the 50% equilibrium of the consolidation. See chart 2
Next: we wait for a retrace and an OTE in obvious swing points.
The LO did not retrace enough for a clear OTE pattern, but on the 5 MIN, there was a nice OTE during NYO. See chart 3
Next: profit targets. the profit targets are determined using the fib tool using the dominant price swing. 127% extension was reached. See chart 4.

Now on for today. We have a slew of news coming at us, but looking at chart 4, you can see a nice 4H order block resting at the 100% swing point, which happens to clear the stops after that (engineered, wrong head title, yeah right ;) ) spike of yesterday evening.
So 1.6233 is a level I watch before or during the GBP news announcements during LO.

The next (longer term) take profit areas are:
  • 1.6346
  • 1.6414
  • 1.6528

GLGT
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
It seems like the 1.6277 4H order block is holding as support, divergence between EU and GU as well.
1.6281 was a sweet spot entry based on the 5M swing in LO.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
1.6281 was a sweet spot entry based on the 5M swing in LO.
Yep, and good for a quick scalp to 1.63 and that'll do. I'm not as bullish on Cable as you ATM Hopi. ;)
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
AusDoc said:
Yep, and good for a quick scalp to 1.63 and that'll do. I'm not as bullish on Cable as you ATM Hopi. ;)
1.6330 (previous week open) to 1.6340 (161 extension) should be doable, but I admit you need to have a pair of attached screenshot with the news coming up :)
 

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AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
1.6330 (previous week open) to 1.6340 (161 extension) should be doable, but I admit you need to have a pair of attached screenshot with the news coming up :)
Hit 22 already, so maybe if you're patient eh? At this time I opted for big lots, short time, money in the bank. Mine won't rust :p

Be careful. Hey, did you hear Scotland is having some kind of pole? Or was it poll? Anyway, they're doing something soon. :))
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
AusDoc said:
Hit 22 already, so maybe if you're patient eh? At this time I opted for big lots, short time, money in the bank. Mine won't rust :p

Be careful. Hey, did you hear Scotland is having some kind of pole? Or was it poll? Anyway, they're doing something soon. :))
Patience pays :)

Now - with all this voting thingies coming up - it's time to get out of GU, but the 200% is still likely in my opinion.
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
This week I will be looking to short the GBPUSD.

reason:
  • Have a look at the COT data: large speculators increased there shorts
  • Have a look at the 5 year US/UK yield divergence

Should we first break the low of 1.6280 I will look for a short in the 1.6305 region.
If we do not break the low but start to move up, I will look to short in the 16420 region.

Tomorrow there's a bit of news during LO so I'll see what gives.

We might go as low as 1.5980, the daily order block.
 

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sqa

Village Scribe
During the current USDX high, Yen, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie & Swiss all hit corresponding highs/lows. However, Cable didn't set a new low. Obviously, they were running stuff due to news, but it's a pretty large SMT Divergence.

Thought I'd mention that.
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
sqa said:
During the current USDX high, Yen, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie & Swiss all hit corresponding highs/lows. However, Cable didn't set a new low. Obviously, they were running stuff due to news, but it's a pretty large SMT Divergence.
Sqa I personally disregard SMT divergence unless its with the prevailing trend. I think youll find its stronger when viewed as trend continuation divergence albeit harder to spot.

Hopiplaka said:
This week I will be looking to short the GBPUSD.

reason:

Have a look at the COT data: large speculators increased there shorts
What made you choose Large Specs in favor of Commercials for this analysis Hopi?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sqa said:
During the current USDX high, Yen, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie & Swiss all hit corresponding highs/lows. However, Cable didn't set a new low. Obviously, they were running stuff due to news, but it's a pretty large SMT Divergence.

Thought I'd mention that.
There's still that weekly order block @ 86.10 level we might reach.

The main reason I think we're going down with the GU is the divergence in yield between UK and US 5 year yield. UK failed to make a higher high while US did, so UK will be the weaker pair for the week(s) to come.

As for the COT remark, this is from WENT part 4:
  • Large speculators are trend following in nature and that is very important. These are the fund managers and it is important to look at the relationship between these fund managers and the large Commercial hedgers.
  • The large speculators have a really good track record of being right during long trends. They don't care about tops and bottoms because they have such good risk control and you shouldn't either.

Just as an addition. Currently we are working through the 1 hour order block around 1.6380, which happens to be a reflection pattern as well of the main swing of yesterday.
So this level also interest me if we go lower and break a 5 or 15 MIN market structure (around 1.6372).
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
Cable looking very Bearish during FOMC. I shorted just above the AR High and endured an 18pip DD on a 20pip stop, so that was close.

I noted that once again the CBDR deviation levels have meaning on the Cable.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
This week I will be looking to short the GBPUSD.

reason:
  • Have a look at the COT data: large speculators increased there shorts
  • Have a look at the 5 year US/UK yield divergence

Should we first break the low of 1.6280 I will look for a short in the 1.6305 region.
If we do not break the low but start to move up, I will look to short in the 16420 region.

Tomorrow there's a bit of news during LO so I'll see what gives.

We might go as low as 1.5980, the daily order block.
So we didn't break the low @ 1.6280, but instead first it went up, right into the 4H order block.
Cleaned the stops that were in place during LO which was a nice turtlesoup entry with divergence using stochastic oscillator.

The USDX was right in the OTE zone and touched a resistance turned support level as well during NYO

Short 1.6412 and I will try to manage the trade for a good amount of pips.

We might even go as low as 1.5760 but will be happy if we reach 1.6080 already this week.
 

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foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
They tried to buck you off Hop but looks like you tamed this one.

Im in awe at your awareness in spotting this trade and having the confidence to take the the position where you did, hats off to you, very impressive.

Of particular interest was watching how they kept squeezing the shorts until the last minute.

PS. Im also along for the ride ;)
 

Fuzzbuggy

Well-Known Member
Great work guys!

Does anyone here have losing trades or is it just me? lol...

Just hit my final TP also for euro @1.2787. Still on a good run!
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Fuzzbuggy said:
Great work guys!

Does anyone here have losing trades or is it just me? lol...

Just hit my final TP also for euro @1.2787. Still on a good run!
No one likes to post their losers, haha.
 

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