Hopiplaka's Journal

Discussion in 'Trading Journals' started by Hopiplaka, Mar 13, 2014.

  1. sakib717

    sakib717 Never apologize for confidence...

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    this article written by Jim Wyckoff

    Here's a difference in open interest, as opposed to volume: Open interest has seasonal tendencies--higher at some times of the year and lower at some times of the year, in many markets. The seasonal average of the open interest is important in analyzing open interest figures. If prices are rising in an uptrend and total open interest is increasing more than its seasonal average (5-year average), new money is considered to be flowing into the market, indicating aggressive new buying, and that is bullish.

    However, if prices are rising and open interest is falling by more than its seasonal average, the rally is being caused by the holders of losing short positions liquidating (short covering) and money is leaving the market. This is usually bearish, as the rally will likely fizzle.

    The same holds true in a downtrend. Open interest increasing more than its seasonal average on the downmove means new aggressive sellers entering the market, and this is bearish. But if open interest is declining more than the seasonal average on the downmove, then it's likely holders of long positions are liquidating their losing trades (long liquidation), and that the downtrend may be near an end.

    Here are two more rules for open interest:

    Very high open interest at market tops can cause a steep and quick price downturn.

    Open interest that is building up during a consolidation, or "basing" period, can strengthen the price breakout, when it happens.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/education/related-markets/volume-and-open-interest-how-to-use-it-to-trade-mo/2007/06/19/

    i found this, trying to figured out open interest and also trying Larry williams seminar - How I Made One Million Dollars ... Last Year ... Trading Commodities
     
  2. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    Although commercials are decreasing their short positions, the reason I was short still was that we didn't reach the weekly order block for USDx and EUR.

    Divergence on Tuesday between EU and GU on the 1H, and GU made a clear divergence between price and stochastic.

    In hindsight I should have set the take profit much lower because of the USDx.
    I had a resistance line at the body of the weekly order block (86.69) which was touched during NFP. But I was not in front of the computer during NFP and decided 172 pips was enough :)

    This week I will use less risk because of commercials decreasing their long position, but if USDx (85.82) and GU (1.6070'ish) or EU (1.2650'ish) make a nice OTE I will take another short.
    Maybe I'll even take the EU this week because we still didn't make it to that weekly order block around 1.2440 and possibly 1.2320.
    Also for the GU, we are deep inside the weekly order block so the support line around 1.5750 is also a downside objective.

    As for COT and certainly open interest I'm not proficient enough to base my whole setup on that, I have made a few mistakes trying to pick tops/bottoms in the past using COT, so I use it as a guideline at the moment, not a turning point :)
    But that doesn't rule out the fact the GU commercials are covering their long position and EU is at a extreme level, so once MS is broken on the Daily I will look for long after an retracement.

    But for now, shorts only. Also the 5 Year bond yields for both GBP and EUR are still going down, while USD failed to make a lower low, suggesting USDx is the stronger of them, which equals to weaker GBP and EUR, so lower prices.
     
  3. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    I entered the EU position.

    USDx is in the 1hour order block, cleaned yesterdays stops.

    GU made higher high while EU did not make higher high, so EU is the weaker pair.

    Entered at the OTE zone of the hidden OTE of 1.2680 level @ 1.2655 (sweet spot-spread)
    Take profit around 1.2455 would be nice :)
     

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  4. Fuzzbuggy

    Fuzzbuggy Well-Known Member

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    Hopiplaka,

    Do you have a particular checklist that you go by each day/week that maybe you can share with us?
     
  5. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    Closed the entry at the 127% extension for a total of 63 pips.
     

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  6. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    Yes, I use (part of) the preflight checklist courtesy of ICT
     

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  7. rupakcr

    rupakcr Member

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    Re: 5 minutes of work, 50 hours of waiting

    Thanks for your nice lesson, Could you please tell me how to define weekly dealer range? or any tutorial from ICT about this?
    Thanks
     
  8. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    Re: 5 minutes of work, 50 hours of waiting

    The range is calculated from Friday's NYO until Market close.
    It's not in ICT video's but rather something I use and is an extension of ICT's Central Bank Dealer Range concepts.
     
  9. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    A nice order block play during NYO yesterday until LO today in line with the down trend.
    15 Min divergence during NYO between GU and EU, GU hit the 1H order block.
    Take profit at a lower 1H order block

    All in all good for a nice 146 pips.

    Although it's a nice trade I'm pretty mad at myself because it appears that I have forgot to put a stop loss (was a market order and was in a hurry, but that's no excuse!)
     

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  10. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Yeah, the stop loss part is brutal. Good thing you're analysis was good. ;D
     
  11. joepippin

    joepippin Well-Known Member

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    Nice trade Bud :)
     
  12. Fuzzbuggy

    Fuzzbuggy Well-Known Member

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    An excellent trade, great work
     
  13. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    A nice 1H order block and weekly dealer range play on the GU.
    Price hit Friday's 1H order block on Monday during a KZ, take profit on Tuesday's 1H order block.

    Good for 70 pips. This time with a stop loss in place :)
     

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  14. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Kind of wish I had held that trade longer. (I got in at the same place you did yesterday, but closed the last part at +55) :eek:
     
  15. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    I stopped using that thought :)

    I had a stop of 23 pips, so it was a nice 1:3 play. With a 2% risk, it's a 6% payout, enough for me, and I didn't have to worry to what the news brings :)
     
  16. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

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    Just had a peak at the futures, have not found a way to incorporate it in trading yet still trying to understand whats being relayed however always seems to work against me. I put it down to complete inexperience so Im not deterred in cracking it.

    With that said, I noticed nearby month higher price then next month out but cant find any other signs of buying, therefore, do we assume its profit taking on a large scale and look for shorts against next week?
     
  17. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    So i played a bit with tradingview this week.

    I entered following short GBPUSD idea this morning
    https://www.tradingview.com/v/jNLk2zVM/

    A nice 1:4 risk/reward ratio.

    I really like the interface and might be using it a bit more for my trading ideas.
     
  18. joepippin

    joepippin Well-Known Member

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    Nice trade bud :)
     
  19. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    I think we'll just have to wait for the series that start after the upcoming market maker series :)
     
  20. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

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    judging by your trades this week I think Ill take that as a yes ;)
     

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