Hopiplaka's Journal


sakib717

Never apologize for confidence...
foreigner said:
Sakib, Im only going by what Ive learned from Alexander Elder (you can find his stuff for free online) as you can see from the post above, its more of a hindrance than a help.

There are definitely more accurate and timely tools.
this article written by Jim Wyckoff

Here's a difference in open interest, as opposed to volume: Open interest has seasonal tendencies--higher at some times of the year and lower at some times of the year, in many markets. The seasonal average of the open interest is important in analyzing open interest figures. If prices are rising in an uptrend and total open interest is increasing more than its seasonal average (5-year average), new money is considered to be flowing into the market, indicating aggressive new buying, and that is bullish.

However, if prices are rising and open interest is falling by more than its seasonal average, the rally is being caused by the holders of losing short positions liquidating (short covering) and money is leaving the market. This is usually bearish, as the rally will likely fizzle.

The same holds true in a downtrend. Open interest increasing more than its seasonal average on the downmove means new aggressive sellers entering the market, and this is bearish. But if open interest is declining more than the seasonal average on the downmove, then it's likely holders of long positions are liquidating their losing trades (long liquidation), and that the downtrend may be near an end.

Here are two more rules for open interest:

Very high open interest at market tops can cause a steep and quick price downturn.

Open interest that is building up during a consolidation, or "basing" period, can strengthen the price breakout, when it happens.

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/related-markets/volume-and-open-interest-how-to-use-it-to-trade-mo/2007/06/19/

i found this, trying to figured out open interest and also trying Larry williams seminar - How I Made One Million Dollars ... Last Year ... Trading Commodities
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
foreigner said:
Excellent forecast again this week Hop, your analysis never ceases to amaze me, well maybe just that once;)

Id be interested in what your COT analysis was this week? I made the mistake of trying to use open interest to substantiate a counter trend/sideways week but couldnt of been further from the truth.

This was the basis of my false belief, just goes to show the value of conventional wisdom, even if it was Alexander Elders;



In hindsight, with large specs flat on the pound and Euro still short with dollar adding to longs its seems obvious now a short bias would have been more prudent.

Still not a bad week fighting the trend. :)
Although commercials are decreasing their short positions, the reason I was short still was that we didn't reach the weekly order block for USDx and EUR.

Divergence on Tuesday between EU and GU on the 1H, and GU made a clear divergence between price and stochastic.

In hindsight I should have set the take profit much lower because of the USDx.
I had a resistance line at the body of the weekly order block (86.69) which was touched during NFP. But I was not in front of the computer during NFP and decided 172 pips was enough :)

This week I will use less risk because of commercials decreasing their long position, but if USDx (85.82) and GU (1.6070'ish) or EU (1.2650'ish) make a nice OTE I will take another short.
Maybe I'll even take the EU this week because we still didn't make it to that weekly order block around 1.2440 and possibly 1.2320.
Also for the GU, we are deep inside the weekly order block so the support line around 1.5750 is also a downside objective.

As for COT and certainly open interest I'm not proficient enough to base my whole setup on that, I have made a few mistakes trying to pick tops/bottoms in the past using COT, so I use it as a guideline at the moment, not a turning point :)
But that doesn't rule out the fact the GU commercials are covering their long position and EU is at a extreme level, so once MS is broken on the Daily I will look for long after an retracement.

But for now, shorts only. Also the 5 Year bond yields for both GBP and EUR are still going down, while USD failed to make a lower low, suggesting USDx is the stronger of them, which equals to weaker GBP and EUR, so lower prices.
 

Fuzzbuggy

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka,

Do you have a particular checklist that you go by each day/week that maybe you can share with us?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
I entered the EU position.

USDx is in the 1hour order block, cleaned yesterdays stops.

GU made higher high while EU did not make higher high, so EU is the weaker pair.

Entered at the OTE zone of the hidden OTE of 1.2680 level @ 1.2655 (sweet spot-spread)
Take profit around 1.2455 would be nice :)
Closed the entry at the 127% extension for a total of 63 pips.
 

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rupakcr

Member
Re: 5 minutes of work, 50 hours of waiting

Hopiplaka said:
A (hindsight) example of how "easy" trading is when looking at the bigger picture and you're in a trending environment.

On monday you check the COT charts. You can see that the non-commercials added a huge amount to their short position.
You can see on the daily and 4 hour chart we're in a clear downtrend.

We do not trade on monday but prefer to trade only Tuesday-Thursday.

We add the weekly dealer range and see a level that aligns with a 1 Hour bullish order block, after breaking Market structure on the 1 hour.

We enter the trade using the dealer range and order block level.

We wait until Thursday NO or LC to take profit, which aligns with the STD3 weekly level.

5 minutes of work, 54 hours of waiting, 220 pips in the pocket...
Thanks for your nice lesson, Could you please tell me how to define weekly dealer range? or any tutorial from ICT about this?
Thanks
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Re: 5 minutes of work, 50 hours of waiting

rupakcr said:
Thanks for your nice lesson, Could you please tell me how to define weekly dealer range? or any tutorial from ICT about this?
Thanks
The range is calculated from Friday's NYO until Market close.
It's not in ICT video's but rather something I use and is an extension of ICT's Central Bank Dealer Range concepts.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
A nice order block play during NYO yesterday until LO today in line with the down trend.
15 Min divergence during NYO between GU and EU, GU hit the 1H order block.
Take profit at a lower 1H order block

All in all good for a nice 146 pips.

Although it's a nice trade I'm pretty mad at myself because it appears that I have forgot to put a stop loss (was a market order and was in a hurry, but that's no excuse!)
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
A nice 1H order block and weekly dealer range play on the GU.
Price hit Friday's 1H order block on Monday during a KZ, take profit on Tuesday's 1H order block.

Good for 70 pips. This time with a stop loss in place :)
 

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sqa

Village Scribe
Kind of wish I had held that trade longer. (I got in at the same place you did yesterday, but closed the last part at +55) :eek:
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sqa said:
Kind of wish I had held that trade longer. (I got in at the same place you did yesterday, but closed the last part at +55) :eek:
I stopped using that thought :)

I had a stop of 23 pips, so it was a nice 1:3 play. With a 2% risk, it's a 6% payout, enough for me, and I didn't have to worry to what the news brings :)
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Just had a peak at the futures, have not found a way to incorporate it in trading yet still trying to understand whats being relayed however always seems to work against me. I put it down to complete inexperience so Im not deterred in cracking it.

With that said, I noticed nearby month higher price then next month out but cant find any other signs of buying, therefore, do we assume its profit taking on a large scale and look for shorts against next week?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
foreigner said:
Just had a peak at the futures, have not found a way to incorporate it in trading yet still trying to understand whats being relayed however always seems to work against me. I put it down to complete inexperience so Im not deterred in cracking it.

With that said, I noticed nearby month higher price then next month out but cant find any other signs of buying, therefore, do we assume its profit taking on a large scale and look for shorts against next week?
I think we'll just have to wait for the series that start after the upcoming market maker series :)
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Hopiplaka said:
I think we'll just have to wait for the series that start after the upcoming market maker series :)
judging by your trades this week I think Ill take that as a yes ;)
 

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