Hopiplaka's Journal

[Hopiplaka]

My journal based on ICT concepts.

GENERAL INFO

I've been following ICT for over 2 years now, and I must say it has been a rough ride
But since the scout sniper series was released, my trading has evolved rather impressively and all concepts which were released before that became much clearer as well.

So ICT: Thank you very, very much for all the time you have spent making the video's, explaining concepts over and over again, and teaching us to become a better trader.Much appreciated! :-*



DISCLAIMER

This journal is mostly after the fact - to reflect the ideal trade for the week - and do not necessarily mean I took this trade, live or on demo.



SETUPS

The trade setup I'm looking for is based on the Scout Sniper Series, so one shot-one kill type of setup, sometimes I mix in some concepts that were released before the series.

• Trade in the direction of the 9 and 18 EMA
• Look for the weekly high or low to form between Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday LO by the latest
• The low should bounce of a support level, the high of a resistance level
• Look for a retracement into an Order Block, preferably after a break in MS on the 5M or 15M timeframe
• TP on previous low/high and fib extension

ACCOUNTS

I use following accounts with some custom profiles:

• Oanda demo and live account
  [list type=decimal]
• EURUSD and GBPUSD: to trade mainly EURUSD and to see divergence between the 2 pairs
• BONDS: USB05YUSD, USB10YUSD and USD30YUSD. If you do not see these symbols by default, go to view/market watch, right click anywhere in the market watch window and choose show all

[*]Forex Ltd demo account
[list type=decimal]
[*]STOCKS: _DJI, _SP500, _NQ100
[*]EUR and USD: USDX, EURX
[/list]

[/list]



FIB SETUP

This is how I setup my fib tool. I included the take profit entries, as well as reflection entries:

• Take Profit levels
  [list type=decimal]
• TP1: -0.27
• TP2: -0.618
• FTP (Final take profit): -1

[*]Reflection levels
[list type=decimal]
[*]R0: 2
[*]R1: 1.6181
[*]R2: 1.4182
[*]R3: 1.2658

[/list]

[/list]



INDICATORS

Central Bank Dealer range indicator: http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,320.msg4938.html#msg4938

 

[Hopiplaka]

For future purposes

 

[Hopiplaka]

Trade setup 2014 Week 11

Hi Folks,

This is the setup for week 11.

1D and 4H 9/18 EMA were bullish, so we were looking for the low of the week to form between Monday and Tuesday.

The low came in on Tuesday, Wednesday LO gave the confirmation.
The low made on Tuesday was a hidden OTE based on the 1.3800 institutional level, right into the Sweet Spot.

Drilling down to the 5M we can see a MS break and a retracement right into the order block. It was right on the mid price level, so 1.3850 was ideal to enter your long position.

Extra stimulans to take the trade was the divergence between EU and GU at that time.

The final TP was @ 1.3947 which was the 2.61 fib extension which converges with the R2 fib level. The r2 fib level is my 70.5 reflection pattern based on the high of Friday's high to the low formed this week on Tuesday.

Stop loss was exactly 30 pips, 10 pips below the low formed on Tuesday.

Conclusion: Enter @ 1.3850, exit @ 1.3940 is your 1:3 risk/reward ratio.

 

[fredfresh]

Hi Hopiplaka
been lurking around this website for a while, and felt it was time to sign up.
Been also following ICT for a little over 2 years and rough is a good description

My understanding of the market has been growing everyday, but my ability to use that knowledge and cash in on it is still limited.. but it is improving as well.
Been trading Live for around 1.5 years now, and have NOT lost money - I guess thats an achievement in itself - I gave myself until next Christmas, and then I will reflect on my (financial) achievements and decide if I can afford to continue to pursue my forex adventure or if I need another change of direction. To say the least, I do hope very much to have a profitable year

The reason why I decided to finally sign up was to reply to your post.
I was amused to see that we both caught exactly the same trade and closed at the same time.
Maybe the whole ICT journey has really brought us to a similar state

Instead of hijacking your thread I wanted to share with you my reasons for entry and exit. while in general we had the same things in mind, I did NOT notice the hidden OTE on tuesday but I did notice the weekly pivot giving support.

Yesterday I entered at the mid fig, as it was: a mid fig, an M15 OTE from tuesdays low to high, an OTE in OTE (M5 created several OTEs around the 50 level), SMT divergence. Additionally I like to keep an eye on USDX which came out of the 80 level (79.97ish..close enough) which happened to be a D1 OTE as well. USDX also diverged with the sisters. Plenty of confluence. enough to even convince me to pull the trigger

After I enter a trade I tend to start doubting my decisions... this trade wasn't different.
After the Ny session gave it a nice push to around +50 pips from my entry, I noticed the new bearish SMT divergence and the Bearish Bond yield-divergence, making me abit uncomfortable about my bullish bias.. I decided to just move my SL to +30ish (my focus during the next month will be to establish the consistency I'm lacking..rather than always trying to catch the weekly train - and often missing it- I shall try and catch 30-70 pips a week consistently) and get off the charts... For once my feed didn't manage to stop me out by a hair and today after I saw the Asian range jumping up to 1.3950ish, I was more than happy to take my 3R and close the trade as the bearish SMT divergence and yields still looked bearish. Didn't really pay attention to the Fib projection - which I should have - and I am happy you fill in the gaps for me

While I am more than happy with my weekly trade (had a few losses recently, which this trade made up for) I am currently eyeing a possible short off of the weekly pivot on cable, which seems to be playing out while I'm typing this. I probably won't take it and just take note of it from the sidelines. After all, my bias is still Bullish, until USDX gunned those stops below 78.90, or MS changes before that.

I'm looking forward to reading more about your journey and future trades, and I promise I won't write such lengthy replies anymore hahaha

the best of luck to you
cheers

 

[Hopiplaka]

Hi Hopiplaka
been lurking around this website for a while, and felt it was time to sign up.
Been also following ICT for a little over 2 years and rough is a good description

My understanding of the market has been growing everyday, but my ability to use that knowledge and cash in on it is still limited.. but it is improving as well.
Been trading Live for around 1.5 years now, and have NOT lost money - I guess thats an achievement in itself - I gave myself until next Christmas, and then I will reflect on my (financial) achievements and decide if I can afford to continue to pursue my forex adventure or if I need another change of direction. To say the least, I do hope very much to have a profitable year

The reason why I decided to finally sign up was to reply to your post.
I was amused to see that we both caught exactly the same trade and closed at the same time.
Maybe the whole ICT journey has really brought us to a similar state

Instead of hijacking your thread I wanted to share with you my reasons for entry and exit. while in general we had the same things in mind, I did NOT notice the hidden OTE on tuesday but I did notice the weekly pivot giving support.

Yesterday I entered at the mid fig, as it was: a mid fig, an M15 OTE from tuesdays low to high, an OTE in OTE (M5 created several OTEs around the 50 level), SMT divergence. Additionally I like to keep an eye on USDX which came out of the 80 level (79.97ish..close enough) which happened to be a D1 OTE as well. USDX also diverged with the sisters. Plenty of confluence. enough to even convince me to pull the trigger

After I enter a trade I tend to start doubting my decisions... this trade wasn't different.
After the Ny session gave it a nice push to around +50 pips from my entry, I noticed the new bearish SMT divergence and the Bearish Bond yield-divergence, making me abit uncomfortable about my bullish bias.. I decided to just move my SL to +30ish (my focus during the next month will be to establish the consistency I'm lacking..rather than always trying to catch the weekly train - and often missing it- I shall try and catch 30-70 pips a week consistently) and get off the charts... For once my feed didn't manage to stop me out by a hair and today after I saw the Asian range jumping up to 1.3950ish, I was more than happy to take my 3R and close the trade as the bearish SMT divergence and yields still looked bearish. Didn't really pay attention to the Fib projection - which I should have - and I am happy you fill in the gaps for me

While I am more than happy with my weekly trade (had a few losses recently, which this trade made up for) I am currently eyeing a possible short off of the weekly pivot on cable, which seems to be playing out while I'm typing this. I probably won't take it and just take note of it from the sidelines. After all, my bias is still Bullish, until USDX gunned those stops below 78.90, or MS changes before that.

I'm looking forward to reading more about your journey and future trades, and I promise I won't write such lengthy replies anymore hahaha

the best of luck to you
cheers

Hi FredFresh,

Welcome to the forum.

I still remember you from the BP days. Great to see that you're still following ICT, and our doing great. The fact that you do not lose money tells me you have some sweet setups and excellent money management skills.

I still lack some knowledge. For instance, I do not pay attention enough to the pivots, like you, but they render some sweet setups as well. Also, I need to dig in into the stinger and holy grail patterns, but one step at the time
For now, I focus on the methods teached in the Scout sniper series.

For next week, I might eye a bearish trade. the USDX reached the OTE into an order block, same for EURX and there was divergence between them.
But I'll wait until next week to confirm this. Watch this space for an update of week 12

Great to hear from you, and good luck. I hope Santa Claus brings you some nice things this year )

 

[Hopiplaka]

Trade setup 2014 Week 12

A nice setup in the direction of 9/18 EMA presented itself today.

The LO gave a judas swing into the 1H order block, confluence with the 62% OTE entry.

NYO gave confirmation on the 5M. Add the divergence between EU and GU on LO vs NYO and we had a solid setup.

Entry around the 1.3890 level, exit at the 62% fib extension around 1.3940.
Good for a decent 50 pips.

The 62% fib extension (to be precise the high of today) was on the SELL order block on the 1H.
Also a nice OTE to go short. The USDX and EURX are in the OTE level still, with divergence between them, so we might see a turnaround from buys to sells.

That's the reason to TP at the 62% fib extension.

We didn't touch the 4H order block @ 1.3872 for a buy, so it will be interesting to see if we clean some stops tomorrow and continue higher, or start to go lower...

 

[Tansen]

I think this will be interesting since most of the comms are short for the most part on the EUR but at the same time their taking some minor longs and even with all that said its almost even and there isn't much of a bias it seems.

 

[Hopiplaka]

I think this will be interesting since most of the comms are short for the most part on the EUR but at the same time their taking some minor longs and even with all that said its almost even and there isn't much of a bias it seems.

For the moment I'm focussing on the 9/18 EMA and try not distract myself from COT and/or bonds.
Last Friday Bond prices went up rapidly, so yield should go down as well as foreign currencies.
But the EU went up as well.

I got burned too much in the past, trying to understand the larger picture, so 9/18 and the occasional MM[B|S] Model will do for now :-\

But I do think it will be an interesting week indeed ;D

 

[Tansen]

For the moment I'm focussing on the 9/18 EMA and try not distract myself from COT and/or bonds.
Last Friday Bond prices went up rapidly, so yield should go down as well as foreign currencies.
But the EU went up as well.

I got burned too much in the past, trying to understand the larger picture, so 9/18 and the occasional MM[B|S] Model will do for now :-\

But I do think it will be an interesting week indeed ;D

No I agree its just speculation with Crimea and such

 

[Hopiplaka]

Re: Trade setup 2014 Week 12

A nice setup in the direction of 9/18 EMA presented itself today.

The LO gave a judas swing into the 1H order block, confluence with the 62% OTE entry.

NYO gave confirmation on the 5M. Add the divergence between EU and GU on LO vs NYO and we had a solid setup.

Entry around the 1.3890 level, exit at the 62% fib extension around 1.3940.
Good for a decent 50 pips.

The 62% fib extension (to be precise the high of today) was on the SELL order block on the 1H.
Also a nice OTE to go short. The USDX and EURX are in the OTE level still, with divergence between them, so we might see a turnaround from buys to sells.

That's the reason to TP at the 62% fib extension.

We didn't touch the 4H order block @ 1.3872 for a buy, so it will be interesting to see if we clean some stops tomorrow and continue higher, or start to go lower...

Screenshot with the GMT pivots added. NYO was right on the MS1 pivot level and into the 1H order block, TP was on the R1 level

 

[rod178]

I've often found that "NY Close" pivots are the most indicative, at least for daily pivots used for trading the Asian and London Session.

My rationale is that a new day begins after NY Close.

 

[Hopiplaka]

I've often found that "NY Close" pivots are the most indicative, at least for daily pivots used for trading the Asian and London Session.

My rationale is that a new day begins after NY Close.

May I ask you what indicator you use? There are at least 3 daily pivot indicators in the ICT indicator library.
I haven't played around much with the pivots I must say. Also, they have different properties for timezones, but it's not always clear what to enter.

 

[rod178]

imho the two best pivot indicators are -


SDX-Tz-Pivots

and

FXI Pivots

The only issue with the latter is that you are stuck with the Broker feed. My feed is GMT+3, which is NY Close pivots, so no issue for myself

SDX_TZ Pivot scan be highly customised

 

[Hopiplaka]

imho the two best pivot indicators are -


SDX-Tz-Pivots

and

FXI Pivots

The only issue with the latter is that you are stuck with the Broker feed. My feed is GMT+3, which is NY Close pivots, so no issue for myself

SDX_TZ Pivot scan be highly customised

Great, thanks for the info.

It looks like the SDX-Tz indicator is actually the same as the ICT GMT Pivot indicator, so I'll stick with this one. I downloaded the source code, so the properties of the indicator actually make sense now

 

[rod178]

The SDX indicator uses 0 time shift as default. It will only be GMT Pivots if your broker feed is GMT

Also - my recollection from a couple of years ago, is that ICT used both GMT Pivots and NY Close Pivots, although he seemed, at least to me at that time, to have a preference for the latter.

 

[Hopiplaka]

Just for my personal notes, and based on the SMT divergence video's released a couple of years back, you could catch 2 nice trades this week, both in the direction of the 9/18 EMA.

Both entries in NYO, you could catch Monday's long in the EU (around 50 pips) and Tuesday's short in GU (around 80 pips). TP right on target in the 15-16GMT zone, nice confluences of fib extension and reversed fib retracement tools.

Note the stop hunt and reflection pattern on Tuesday for EU as well, for a counter trend short setup (not following the 9/18 ema direction)

 

[Hopiplaka]

While we're waiting for the next series, we can see the setup of one his recents tweets come in action.
TP1 is my 127 ext, TP2 is 162. Look how after touching the 127 on the 1H went back to 100% to the pip.

 

[Hopiplaka]

While we're waiting for the next series, we can see the setup of one his recents tweets come in action.
TP1 is my 127 ext, TP2 is 162. Look how after touching the 127 on the 1H went back to 100% to the pip.

So we were in a short, levels TP1 and TP2 are reasonable levels to take profit, but what would be the perfect price?


Take a look at the 1 Minute for accurate take profit levels.
Market structure broke to the upside. Anyone see the pattern learned in the Scout sniper serie 4?

1.3760 is a nice TP price I'd say, the ADR was also met.

Edit: to squeeze out the last bit of juice, you might also go for the 3 indians into a support level

 

[Hopiplaka]

A screenshot to demonstrate some ICT concepts:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Price bounced off of a Support level
[*]The Scout sniper 4 model could be seen on the 15Min. So break 1, break 2 and back into the order block
[*]The order block confluences with the 61.8% retracement level
[*]A reflection pattern was seen before price went into the order block, just between asian session and LO
[*]Divergence between the EU and GU (the blue graph)
[*]When price touched the R1 reflection level, a bounce was made and you could enter on the 5Min OTE, let's say 1.3770
[*]TP1 and TP2 were hit, which is a nice TP because the 4h 9/18 ema is pointing to SELL's only, and we are in a Market maker SELL Model (1.3720 or even 1.3650 are within reach)
[/list]

I didn't trade this, but it's just to show the concepts at work. Good for 30 pips (a 1:1 risk reward), extra pocket change for the weekend

 

[Hopiplaka]

Another update after some well deserved time off

There were some decent pips to be made with a long on Monday, against the 9/18 EMA tide.
But the bounce was of a weekly order block, so i made sense, with a nice OTE and all.

The extension of that bounce is at 1.3829, which is an ORDER BLOCK on the 1H in an OTE zone, wednesday morning (might be a late HIGH of the week???) .
Interest rates coming for the EU, talks are that they might intervene in the EU (lower interest rates, QE, ...), so we might see a nice bounce at the 1.3830 level during LO today. If the bounce is substantial, a nice NYO entry short might present itself...