Hopiplaka's Journal

rod178

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
Yes, but the same thing happened yesterday as well, to clean the Monday stops.
So I thought they cleared all stops and just go for the order block :)
They only took out those stops by about 4pips, so there were still plenty left for today.

I'm now wondering whether or not it will drop back to the CBDR low 16082 for one last liquidity hunt before the news. There seemed to me some good hints from Carney last night that the BOE was considering a rate hike.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
rod178 said:
They only took out those stops by about 4pips, so there were still plenty left for today.

I'm now wondering whether or not it will drop back to the CBDR low 16082 for one last liquidity hunt before the news. There seemed to me some good hints from Carney last night that the BOE was considering a rate hike.
Or a hidden OTE from the 1.61 level, entry @ 1.6117?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
rod178 said:
I'm going by the premise that we will need some News to facilitate a rapid move into the gap.

GBP Inflation Report Hearings in about 3 hrs may do the trick
Going strong, an update with the typical counter trend late NYO, LC trade.
Take profit should be no later than 38.3% fib of daily range.

Normally the NY range should act as support...
 

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rod178

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
Going strong, an update with the typical counter trend late NYO, LC trade.
Take profit should be no later than 38.3% fib of daily range.

Normally the NY range should act as support...
... so you've locked in about 33pips and are still shooting for the gap fill ?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
rod178 said:
... so you've locked in about 33pips and are still shooting for the gap fill ?
I was monitoring the entry yesterday night with a tight stop loss.
When it hit Sunday's high it retraced. It closed when it went through the 1MIN order block.

I locked in 114 pips, but will make a new long entry today. My goal is 1.6280'ish still
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
I locked in 114 pips, but will make a new long entry today. My goal is 1.6280'ish still
Maybe a very early entry:
  • NY top range acts as support
  • draw a hidden OTE from NY high to high made yesterday, enter sweet spot during asian after a judas swing
  • draw an OTE from Asia low to asia high, right into the sweet spot after a Judas out of asia, (too) early LO
  • Might get in sync during LO when we go higher now and it retraces into something OTE like
  • on large range day, low is at or very close to the opening price
  • 1MIN had a nice entry during LO
  • 1.6413 is likely next week
 

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sakib717

Never apologize for confidence...
Commercial are net long in Euro but it is has to be confirmed with open interest to make low, open interest didnt declined :( open interest rate rising in daily chart if open interest rising euro is still bearish right ?
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sakib717 said:
Commercial are net long in Euro but it is has to be confirmed with open interest to make low, open interest didnt declined :( open interest rate rising in daily chart if open interest rising euro is still bearish right ?
I'm sorry, COT is still on the agenda to learn.
Ideally I should have confirmation with COT data that we made a longer term low, but this is something I need to improve upon.
My understanding is that COT data is 1 week old when it hits the street, so maybe you get a confirmation this Friday?
 

ovidiux

Well-Known Member
my understanding is that even if we see a change in cot, the effect on price will have a delay of 2-3 weeks. And in this time we have to expect a large move to clear stops in the direction opposite to what the cot says.
 

sakib717

Never apologize for confidence...
Hopiplaka said:
I'm sorry, COT is still on the agenda to learn.
Ideally I should have confirmation with COT data that we made a longer term low, but this is something I need to improve upon.
My understanding is that COT data is 1 week old when it hits the street, so maybe you get a confirmation this Friday?
i'm not good at COT analysis but this is what im thinking, i saw euro weekly chart commercial are net long more than past 12 month and open interest declined. ICT says you have to confirm it on daily chart. Euro daily chart showing open interest rising thats mean Euro is still bearish now if euro wants to bullish open interest should rapidly decline in daily chart.

here is link you can check it : http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=E6U14&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BOI%280%2C0%2C0%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&chartindicator_3_code=OI&chartindicator_3_param_0=0&chartindicator_3_param_1=0&chartindicator_3_param_2=0&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sakib717 said:
i'm not good at COT analysis but this is what im thinking, i saw euro weekly chart commercial are net long more than past 12 month and open interest declined. ICT says you have to confirm it on daily chart. Euro daily chart showing open interest rising thats mean Euro is still bearish now if euro wants to bullish open interest should rapidly decline in daily chart.

here is link you can check it : http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=E6U14&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BOI%280%2C0%2C0%29&chartindicator_2_code=COTLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&chartindicator_3_code=OI&chartindicator_3_param_0=0&chartindicator_3_param_1=0&chartindicator_3_param_2=0&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
So the weekly suggest that we made a bottom at an extreme and open interest declined and we are in a weekly order block, touched the 50% of that bar.

I think this is where patience comes in. We wait to break out of the current consolidation to the upside and wait for the retracement into the daily order block @ 1.2920-1.2960 next week.
Did you look at the forex calendar for next week, some huge news events.
 

sakib717

Never apologize for confidence...
but i want to see one more drive down because its created a sell model. to confirm bullish we as ICT students we except a buy model in a key support level. didnt you watched ICT USD/CAD COT analysis ? we need to see open interest decline rapidly in daily chart of euro and buy model in key support level !

Edit : sorry we expect a market maker buy model in key support level when open interest rapidly decline in daily chart
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sakib717 said:
but i want to see one more drive down because its created a sell model. to confirm bullish we as ICT students we except a buy model in a key support level. didnt you watched ICT USD/CAD COT analysis ? we need to see open interest decline rapidly in daily chart of euro and sell model in key support level !
My 2 cents: open interest increased on the daily when it hit the weekly order block and the last bearish daily candle inside that weekly order block.
Can you determine what they are interested in when open interest increases? Is it in the current short, or can it be that it is buy's they're interested in?

We touched this daily order block, price rejected and now we retraced into the hourly order block, twice already.

You could even draw a market maker buy model but as I said before, I'm not a COT expert and MM models is also I need to improve upon
 

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sakib717

Never apologize for confidence...
Thanks man i yah its like a buy model.

Open interest tell us what is commercial doing.

I marked in euro daily image whats happen when open interest rising and declining.

in second image I add ICT Inner Circle Trader's Trade Plan Development Part 5 screen shot.

if open interest decline i will buy Euro.
 

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AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
My goal is 1.6280'ish still
Pretty close. 1.62768 on mine, but filled.



Looking bearish still but plenty of reasons for crazy price action ATM and anything is possible, even 1.6413 some time next week. Good luck :)
 

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