Aarnog's Journal

Discussion in 'Trading Journals' started by Aarnog, Nov 20, 2013.

  1. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    you may find this view interesting (https://twitter.com/50Pips)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=w7R7Imd0Ihs
     
  2. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    Update for tonight:

    Went long Cable @ 1.6450. Price traded up around 30 pips, I moved my stop loss up to capture 10 pips profit (news was coming out - gotta be careful).

    Price sprints down, tags my stop, and continues upward.

    There was swearing. Lots of swearing.

    Either way, still ahead by a few pips.
     
  3. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Annoying, obviously, but Profit is Profit and, had it actually gone the other way, you'd have lost money. Risk Protection first, Profit second.

    Also, how much was your Risk% & Pips Risked at? If it's an ICT style 30 at risk, taking some profit off at 30 pips isn't a terrible idea with a higher News Cycle Reverse being possible.
     
  4. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    I only ever risk 2-3% of my account (I usually round to the nearest lot).

    Also, I'm still stuck in the mindset from when I first started trading where gradually phasing out of trades wasn't really worth it due to the low volume I was trading. Now that I'm trading significantly higher volumes, I really need to start phasing out my trades.

    Although, I should have stuck with my system and taken everything off at 30 pips anyway. Ah well, I'm still ahead for the day!
     
  5. Shaan

    Shaan Member

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    Hi Aarnog

    Thank you for sharing your journal. It really helps for someone like me who is new to ICT concepts. I am wondering if you could possibly share your cot and bond charts as I am seem to be struggling to interpret them. for instance this weekend i was looking at British pound commercials data. They reduced their net short position from around 40 thousand to 20 thousand. My interpretation was that commercials are anticipating lower prices in and therefore would accumulate long positions when the price goes down etc. I would extremely appreciate if you could do that if you get some time or perhaps in your next analysis.

    Many thanks
     
  6. foreigner

    foreigner Est. 12480 Hours and Counting

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    Aarnog, Im struggling to see the bullish divergence in the 10 year yields, I can see that the German made a lower low at the start of feb without the US but the UK failed to make a lower low, I thought both UK and German yield must diverge from the US?

    Also, I fail to see the extreme COT in the Euro, can you show us some charts to support this analysis?!

    Cheers
    F
     
  7. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    I've attached pictures of the divergence and the COT Data for illustration:

    The COT is the image on a black background - it is only a 6-month high, not an annual high (that was my error), but it is still illustrating a significant change in sentiment.

    The divergence between the 10 year yields has been highlighted by a black line to make it a bit easier to see.

    If you have any more questions, please let me know!

    (Also - skipping the analysis portion of my post tonight, because I ended up being super busy. Basically, I'm looking to short at 1.6750. If we don't continue short there, then I'm looking to go long until either 1.7050, or maybe even 1.7450 if we go that high. Here's hoping!)
     

    Attached Files:

  8. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    I know I haven't done this yet, but next week I'll grab a couple screenshots and draw a couple lines to show you guys what I look at for yields and bonds!
     
  9. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    Also, tonight's trade:

    We bounced off of the 1.6800 level (cleared 1.66750 resistance, but couldn't hold above there). Tuesday didn't see a higher high made, or even a retest of that level. My assumption was that price was going to either maintain range before testing 1.6750 again, or just head straight downwards.

    I took an OTE short @ 1.6720. Currently up ~50 pips. Probably going to close the trade very shortly here, given that I've reached my weekly pip target.

    Update: Clsoed out for 50 pips, and time for bed! I love when I reach my profit targets quickly and manage a full night's rest!
     
  10. Shaan

    Shaan Member

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    Thanks Aarnog. i look forward to it.
     
  11. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    Tonight's trade: Shorted Cable @ 1.6680 - OTE short + bearish divergence between Cable, Fiber, and USDX. Also, bearish outlook on the week - still likely bouncing off of the 1.6750 level. USDX is looking to push long. If it breaks past resistance at 80.38 and holds, then I'll hold the short for a while (inverse relationship between the two).

    update: stopped on the news for +30. I'm happy with this.
     
  12. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    Analysis for the week!

    Overall:

    There is, sadly, no divergence between any of the major yields - neither foreign or domestic (see attachments). There was divergence on the foreign yields early in the month, but that has run its course by now (and explains the large bearish move seen in the USDX - investors switched to bonds from currency, as yields were rising).

    We have nothing on the COT either - it's remained pretty flat. We're getting close to making a new yearly low on the Cable, though. That'll be good confirmation for a short, especially since we just hit a major resistance level.

    USDX:

    I am fully expecting the USDX to move dorn to the 80.00 level before continuing to move bullishly. It's an OTE level, psychological level, and it lines up pretty well with previous support.

    Cable:

    So, we finally hit the 1.6750 level. Emphasis on FINALLY. I am fully expecting bearish action for at least a little while as price corrects from that level.

    Price yesterday bounced at the highs made on Jan 2nd (1.6600, coincidentally my entry for the day yesterday!), and is probably going to retrace into an OTE at around 1.6680 or so to make the high of the week (it is Tuesday, after all!) before heading lower into Friday.

    Fiber:
    I am also expecting lower prices going into Friday here - we just reached an OTE level (1.3770) yesterday, and are still in a retracement from the high made at 1.3900.


    Overall: Looking to short the Cable going into tonight, tomorrow, and Thursday nights!
     

    Attached Files:

  13. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    Yeah, the muddle is making a lot of things stagnant (on my pairs) this week so far.

    British 4Q GDP is 930 GMT on Wednesday. So I'm expecting a bit of consolidation before the News Event moves. (Not sure how much it moves for Pound pairs on that news yet)
     
  14. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    So! I wasn't really expecting price on the cable to move as high as it did last night - took a ten pip loss as a result. Still at +50 for the week, though.

    More importantly - it looks to me like the Cable might be going for a retest of the 1.6740 level. If price rejects there, I am expecting some seriously bearish moves going into the next few weeks. If price goes above that level and holds? I will be looking to go long into 1.6880 or 1.7050.

    If we get outside that 1.7050 level, then the sky is the limit.
     
  15. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    More updates! So, I got caught out on Tuesday + Thursday - the ranges on the Cable have been getting smaller and smaller, and I am expecting a large breakout day. I went short both Tuesday + Thursday during New York session (I took this week off, so I can trade ALL the sessions!). Losses on both of those, for -30 total.

    BUT - I had a major win (+70 pips) on Monday, and another win on the AUD on Wednesday evening for +40 pips, so I'm doing pretty well so far this week.

    Looking to go Long into tonight - although the pattern for the week is short into London, long into New York. Hopefully we get a big move up and retest that 6740 level that I have been eyeing greedily for a while.

    Also, as a side note - I might start throwing some analysis of the yen pairs into the mix. I hadn't looked at them in years, and I just realized how many pips I'm leaving on the table by ignoring them. We'll see how that goes though, I might just stick with by Cable/Fiber combo.
     
  16. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

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    I'd go with the USDJPY first. GBPJPY is going to lose you a lot of money until you put in significant work. EURJPY I'll start looking into around April. It correlates a lot less with the USDJPY moves, so it has its own character.

    If you do go for the USDJPY, some quick & useful details:

    - Big moves are either before LO (late Asian time, normally news cycles/Nikkei runs) or during NYO. The major volume for the pair is actually London/NY overlap.
    - The NYO raiders will run a slaughtering of Stop Raids.
    - NYO range on Monday dictates a major "pull" on the range for the week. A lot of money is there.
    - Looking for IntraWeek Swings is pretty easy on the pair. After month, I'm catching most of them. Though still working on catching more of the move.
    - 65 or less pips on the daily range is a consolidation day: be weary. (At least in the current muddle market)

    If you find any other insights, I'm quite open to chat.
     
  17. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Sqa! I'll keep all that in mind!

    Also - just a quick update. I just went short on the cable at 1.6740. We have: higher time frame OTE, long term resistance, bearish SMT divergence. The USDX has hit a significant support level. The Fiber has hit a resistance level as well. Also, we've been well inside the ADR for this whole week, so I am hoping I get to see a significant move today.

    Now, we wait and hope things pan out like I want them to.
     
  18. Aarnog

    Aarnog Well-Known Member

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    And the stops were hit. -30 pips. Total gains for the week - 120 pips. Total losses for the week - 110 pips.

    Total for the week: 10 pips.

    So, I took this week off to see how well I could do as a full-time trader. Turns out, I'm pretty bad at it.

    Especially frustrating is the fact that I can make large, successful trades, but I just give any pips gained right back to the market. This is a pattern that repeats week, after week, after week. It's getting to the point where I don't think I'll actually be able to make it as a trader.


    I'm going to mull it over this weekend, but it's entirely possible that, come Monday, I may withdraw my funds from my trading account and focus solely on my full-time job. I can't handle doing both for very much longer - a few weeks, tops, and it looks like trading isn't going to provide me the life that I so desperately want it to.

    I'll keep you guys updated as to what my decision is.
     
  19. rod178

    rod178 Well-Known Member

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    Suspect that you are to easily discouraged.

    Fact to think about - A successful trader should expect to sometimes experience seven consecutive losses.

    Sound as though you are doing better than that, so hang in there.
     
  20. Hopiplaka

    Hopiplaka My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer

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    And to add to that, try - in the beginning - for one setup per week. Looks like you want to be in the market all the time.
    I don't know if the 120pip was a result of one trade, if so you made 8% with a 30 pips s/l.

    Enough for the week me thinks :)

    So for the next couple of weeks: try to stick with 1 pair, and only do 1 trade.
     

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