Aarnog's Journal


Aarnog

Well-Known Member
So, took a long tonight. Got a crappy entry because I hit the snooze button a couple times. Closed out first trade at break even, thanks to the news event. Re-entered long @ 1.6210, currently holding for 30+pips.

edit - well that was a good re-entry! Just closed out for 80 pips, because I am sleepy and want to go to bed. I am fully expecting us to hit at LEAST 1.6300 today. See you all in New York!
 

pipmart

Well-Known Member
The other thing you could have done is traded nyo instead of lo... In my limited experience nyo is much easier jump in on. Good job on the analysis Aarnog. Right on.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Pipmart - my issue is that I like being in front of my monitor while the bulk of my trade happens. Unfortunately, I have a full time (and then some) job at the moment, so I much prefer to trade LO. Plus, it's nice catching the low of a day and riding it for a while.

Also - I'm still bullish for the week, but less so after yesterday's move. I'm expecting to see things trade higher today, and then much softer into Friday. If price can hold over 1.6300 then we could be in for a hell of a bullish ride, though.

However, given that we just broke into the highest point that we've seen since Sept 2011, I wouldn't be shocked if there was a retracement, and price traded lower for the next few days. Basically, I'm going to be quick on my feet these next few sessions while I discern whether we'll keep above 1.6300 or not.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
It's Sunday night! Time for another round of top-down analysis for the week!

USD Treasury yields:

Nothing terribly exciting happening here - no clear divergences, so it's looking like price is going to continue on the slow uptrend (meaning an increase in the value of the USD, and a decrease in the value of foreign currency - bearish for the cable and fiber)

German + British yields:

Also not much to report. Everything is pretty sideways. No divergences, sadly. That may change soon, the GDBR is looking a little sickly and may make a lower low compared to the other yields (USD and UK)

Commitment of Traders:

EURO: very slight increase in Commercials last week - I wouldn't be surprised if there was a drop in that on this Tuesday's COT data though. Small specs decreased their positions a lot. That's probably more of a buy signal than anything, though.

GBP: Small decrease in commercials net position last week. Still hovering right around neutral. Again, I expect that to decrease on this Tuesday's COT.

USD: Looks like there wasn't much of a change in the commercials position this week either. Still net short, showing weakness in the dollar. That might change a bit this week, and increase bullishly moderately, but probably not that much.

Overall - I'm going to wait for Tuesday's COT data to come out for sure, but I expect a minor shift in overall sentiment from last week - more bearish on foreign currency, and more bullish on the USD. Not a major change, though, and probably nothing long-term.

Now, the REAL stuff!

USDX:

Weekly - Still overall bullish off of the most recent long move (week of Oct 27). Just hit resistance level at 80.50, expecting at least a bit of a bounce there.

Daily: Story doesn't change much - price reacting pretty strongly on the daily at the 80.50 level lately - if that level breaks, I'll be looking for the 80.00 level, then to the 79.80 level for support (127% extension, and OTE, respectively). If those fail, then 79 is the next target.

4h + 1h: Pretty much the same story - price is testing the 80.50 level for sure. If price fails to break the level, I'd expect to see a stop raid of the lows below the 80.50 level, and then a rocket to the moon. IF the support level holds (I am not 100% confident of that).

Cable:

Weekly: Cleared the highs at 1.6300. There is nothing in the way of us reaching for the 1.6600 and 1.6750 levels (highs from back in 2011!). I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of the 1.6300 level before we do that, thoguh.

Daily: Oh my. We obliterated those highs. Adjusting my expectations on the fly here - I wouldn't be surprised to see price reach for the 1.6670 level or higher! (Measured move technique, for those who remember it from ICT's earlier videos).

4h + 1h: There we go - looks like we have the retest of the 1.6310 level on a lower time frame. I can see price continuing upward this week for sure.

15m: OTE @ 1.6380/Friday's high is my target for an entry today - probably going to happen in NYO.

Fiber:

Weekly + Daily: Price looks like it is still climbing to the 1.3720 level at least. I think that's a reasonable target, especially given that it lines up with the 80% fib retracement level.

4H + 1H: There are some highs right at the 1.3630 level that are also in the OTE zone that might serve as resistance. Otherwise, looks like it's pretty much smooth sailing to 1.3720 or so.

15m: So long as we can break the highs made on Friday, we're good to move on up - bullish OTE @ 1.3590 is likely going to be my target (unless we get some nested ote's going into london open, of course). I am totally poaky with being bearish on the Fiber as well - asian session highs are currently set at a short OTE, so I wouldn't be surprised to see price trade softer into Tuesday-Wednesday before moving north (if price moves north at all).

As always, comments/criticism is welcome!

Edit: New York Open - Fiber is down after a stop raid on the asian session highs. Cable also has slid downwards. I did not trade last night, I was up too late, apparently, and slept through my alarm.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Quick one for tonight -

Yields have increased, COT data on Euro is slightly up, and COT data on GBP is slightly down. Still overall bullish. Looking for longs.

edit: took a quick scalp short on euro @ 1.3450 or so. Didn't go well, but I only risked around 6 pips, so that doesn't even register, the r:r was too good to pass up.

Took a more serious trade long on GBP - filled at 1.6390, holding for maybe 30 pips or so.

Closed trade for +15 pips - didn't like the railroad tracks short on the 5m chart occurring right at the OTE short level on the Cable (was expecting a much faster, larger rally given the movement in the USDX). Gonna preserve my equity for a trade I feel more comfortable in. Will see how New York plays out.

edit: I am tempted to go long on the cable once more, but the USDX is at the max OTE level (79% retracement), and I have to go to work so I can't watch it. Looks like I am on my hands this morning, sadly.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
So, went long @ OTE on cable today (entry: 1.6374). Have my stop set @ 20 pips (1.6354). Price was 1 pip away from triggering my stop before it zipped back up. My palms were sweaty. That was an uncomfortable wait.

Still in the danger zone when it comes to having my stop triggered, and I would be pretty surprised to see a profit on this trade in all honesty. We've gone past the 79% retracement level on my OTE, and I tend to have around a 95% failure rate there. We shall see!

Edit - and there we go. Stopped out for -20 pips. Not surprised at all, but pretty frustrating trade - I really don't handle the cable trading out of sync with the Euro and the USDX very well.

Final edit - closed trade at +21 pips, bringing me to 1 pip for the night. Still technically got paid, and made up for my loss, so that's okay. I'm just not comfortable sitting in this market at the moment - the cable, euro, and usdx are all too out of sync at the moment for my liking. We'll see how New York goes!

Edit again - re-entered long @ 63.40. That large snap (pre-news release, no less!) was not mirrored in either the USDX or the Fiber, which to me says it was probably a stop raid below the lows from Monday. This is looking a lot more promising already, currently up 15 pips, aiming for 30.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Hi! Sorry - been busy these last couple days, haven't kept up with the journal.

Basically, it was a bad week for trading - managed to break even most days, took two losses on Thursday, and then made 40 pips today during NFP. I'm just under break even for the week (which is good!); so I'm pretty happy with it - especially because I really should have been focusing more on the nice, clean, predictable Fiber, instead of the sloppy, out-of-sync Cable.

Lesson learned! Sometimes the increased volatility of the cable just isn't worth it.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Aarnog said:
Hi! Sorry - been busy these last couple days, haven't kept up with the journal.

Basically, it was a bad week for trading - managed to break even most days, took two losses on Thursday, and then made 40 pips today during NFP. I'm just under break even for the week (which is good!); so I'm pretty happy with it - especially because I really should have been focusing more on the nice, clean, predictable Fiber, instead of the sloppy, out-of-sync Cable.

Lesson learned! Sometimes the increased volatility of the cable just isn't worth it.
Is this the sole journal for your weeks trading or just the public version.
A more detailed private version may be advantageous, that's if you're not already maintaining one.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
This is my sole journal - I've tried the private journal thing and find it doesn't work for me; I don't go back through my notes, which sort of defeats the whole purpose. I think I'm mostly using this as an outlet to make public any... undesirable behaviours that I'm exhibiting - overtrading, anxiety, gambling, etc, so I can take accountability and correct those behaviours before they become issues.

As well, I'm trying to find flaws in my analysis - it is often VERY hard to find the weaknesses in your own work, so I'm hoping some of the traders here will chime in and offer suggestions as to things to look for in the market, or mistakes I make in my analysis.
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Aarnog said:
Lesson learned! Sometimes the increased volatility of the cable just isn't worth it.

This is a very valid point - one that I have been studying especially in the context of short term trading and news release days.

As many will know the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf are closely correlated inversely, it seems, sometimes, that at news releases, the 'quieter' pair is a little easier to trade.

Example, Fri's nfp, the swissy 'spiked' right to the previous day's AS low and then continued on it's trend path as per the H1.

On the 15 min for Fri, look at the equilib for AS , a short limit order (in agreement with h1 trend) required a stop of 20 to allow for the spike, Fibre required a stop of 40.

I know (to my cost) how spikey NFP can be, but the thrust of my learning for news releases is how can I trade them that little bit more safely.
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Should have added, some will say - ahh, but less risk (volatility), less potential gain.

A trade from AS equilib on the above 2 crosses on Friday;

Fibre : required (safe) stop 40, TP 40 (successful).
Usd/Chf: required (safe) stop 20, TP 50 (successful).

It's an interesting study.

Thks Aarnog for a good thread.
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
The issue I have with the volatile pairs is that they can trade so far out of sync with the rest of the market, that perfectly good trades can become losers, then quickly switch over to winners. It really is one of the risks you take when you trade those pairs though.

Anyway - on to my analysis for the week, starting from the top!

US Treasury yields:

The 5, 10, and 30 year are all trending upward, making higher highs. the 2 year is not. Bearish divergence! Might see a correction in the coming days here on the usdx

Comparison of foreign yields

Looks like German, us, and British yields are all well in line. Nothing exciting to report here, just a signal that prices are going to continue the way they're going.

COT

COT on the pound shot down last week - the euro dropped slightly. The usdx rose slightly - I wouldn't be surprised to see the pound retrace a bit after making a brand new high. Otherwise, things look to be mostly neutral, probably a continuation of price.

Seasonality
I haven't touched on this, but we're in the part of the year where we tend to see prices move bullishly until around early-mid January, when things sort of level off and retrace back downwards.

Cable

Weekly + Daily - price has broken the highs from 2012, and has retested them (1.6300 level). I fully expect this to be the most important level of the week, but if it fails, the next level to watch is 1.6360. Definitely significant support levels.

4H and 1H - Nothing terribly exciting to report - price was unable to make higher highs last week, but made a set of lower lows, suggesting bearish prices (although the 1.6300 support level trumps that). If we break the 1.
6300 level to the downside and hold, I fully expect lower prices. If not, up we go!

15m - we had a big, sloppy, choppy friday because of NFP. Price is currently in a short OTE (during asian session). I am expecting a move down today to test the 1.6300 level during LO.

Fiber

Weekly + Daily - We broke the highs at 1.3720, came back down, and are currently testing them as resistance. If this fails, I'd expect some bearish action on both the Cable and Fiber for the week.

4H + 1H - Last week was actually fairly strong and bullish, and I wouldn't be surprised to see things run out of steam this week - take a few days to re-accumulate positions before driving price higher.

15m: Price tested the 1.3720level during asian session, and is currently retracing from that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see another test of that level in LO, but if price kept falling, that wouldn't surprise me either.

USDX

The main level I'm watching here is the 80.45/80.50 level. If it's broken, it's bullish for the USDX. If it isn't, bearish for the USDX. That'll be a big tell as far as price action for the rest of the week is concerned.

Currently - waiting to see what the situation is come London open. Wish me luck!
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
So, I wasn't feeling well this week, and ended up heading to bed pretty early almost every day, so I didn't really have much time or energy to put together trade journal entries.

I am, however, up around 150 pips for the week - I switched my bias to short on Tuesday after the large run-up in price on the Cable and Fiber on Monday. Held it for the week, and price just decided to work in my favor all week long, it was fantastic and easy. Just how I like it. I did have a couple of losing trades; but they were extremely minimal (5 pips and 10 pips, respectively). The rest was profit. I've noticed that I am getting more and more level headed with my trades. The winning trades and the instant loser trades don't phase me in the least. I still get a bit grumpy when price swings my way 15-20 pips and then erodes all my profit and turns against me, but that's just me mad at myself for not taking some profits before things went south.

Also, I had a realization the other day that showing up to work at my day job is a serious opportunity cost. I earn more in an average 20-30 pip trade than I do in a week working my job, so going to work (which makes it difficult to properly trade the New York session) means I am losing out on a fairly significant amount of potential income. I'm probably going to stick it out for the remainder of the year (I do want my Christmas bonus after all), but after that I'll likely put in my notice and go full time.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
Aarnog said:
Also, I had a realization the other day that showing up to work at my day job is a serious opportunity cost. I earn more in an average 20-30 pip trade than I do in a week working my job, so going to work (which makes it difficult to properly trade the New York session) means I am losing out on a fairly significant amount of potential income. I'm probably going to stick it out for the remainder of the year (I do want my Christmas bonus after all), but after that I'll likely put in my notice and go full time.
All the best with your decision to go full time.
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
Aarnog said:
... I had a realization the other day that showing up to work at my day job is a serious opportunity cost. I earn more in an average 20-30 pip trade than I do in a week working my job, so going to work (which makes it difficult to properly trade the New York session) means I am losing out on a fairly significant amount of potential income...
Supposing that you are trading at least 50pips per trade then full time can be all that you require, if you are consistent over at least 12 months. If so, go for it.

Alternatively, at least work is not charging you pips to be there, although there may be other 'costs' and 'benefits'. Just remember that trading can be very isolating and humans 'require' meaningful work for mental well being.

GLGT
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
rod178 said:
Supposing that you are trading at least 50pips per trade then full time can be all that you require, if you are consistent over at least 12 months. If so, go for it.

Alternatively, at least work is not charging you pips to be there, although there may be other 'costs' and 'benefits'. Just remember that trading can be very isolating and humans 'require' meaningful work for mental well being.

GLGT
I must say - 50 pips a trade is a very lofty goal - if I manage 50 pips a week, and I don't increase my lot sizes as my account increases, I will still manage over $100,000 this next year.

I think I mentioned this earlier - my actual goal is 50 pips a week. I aim for 1 trade in London open, and 1 trade in New York open 3-4 days a week, with a target of 30 pips per trade (so, if I have a perfect week, I will net nearly 250 pips, or 5x my goal!).

My current weakness is my consistency - once I get that higher, I can work on other areas of weakness.

Also - while work isn't charging me pips to be there, I hate my job. It's awful, and has both ruined my work-life balance (there is none - I don't do thing anymore because I am too exhausted from trading and working for 16-18 hours a day), and caused serious negative changes to my personality that I can not tolerate. I'm going to leave it at that, because I don't feel like opening the floodgates on what is wrong with my job/what it has done to me as a person.

So, really, I'm going to quit my current job no matter what - even if I wasn't trading at all, I'd still be quitting. Trading is basically just going to be the deciding factor as to when (or if!) I decide to apply for another job.
 

Ramy3

May the pips be with you!
Can relate and was in the same situation. Sorta still am. You might want to consider a sabbatical, if your company offers this. The emotions, boredom and greed that come when relying on trading alone as income is a totally different story then just seeing missed opportunities. You start creating ones that are not there. .Alpha-Bet and Shopster are ones I respect here that are doing it (maybe they will chime in), amongst others I know. Plus, I missed those little daily challenges. We are all created/geared differently.

Here is a bit more of my experience. Others may vary…
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=375624
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, my company does not offer sabbaticals - it is not a company that promotes healthy lifestyles. More... utter and complete devotion to the company, or nothing at all (which is why I would not be surprised to come in to work one morning only to be given my walking papers. The company forbids extra jobs.). It's okay though, I'll be changing industries anyway, so I figure why use this as an opportunity to see how trading suits me? Who knows, I might hate it and end up quitting trading forever!
 

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Weekly analysis time! A day late, but so what?

Big picture!

USDX - look for the USD to be heading bearishly this week. Treasury yields are showing bearish divergence (neither 10 yr nor 30 yr have made higher highs - signals a bearish move forthcoming).

Also, the USD bond yields made a higher high, while the German and British ones failed to do so. Another bearish signal for the USD.

Coincidentally - GBP futures are trading at a premium right now (price right now > futures prices), which is a SIGNIFICANT bullish signal (for the near term, at least).

However - the COT report shows commercials increased their shorts on the pound. They're nearly at a 1 year low. Once they reach that level, I'm shifting my bias to short for sure, as that is a very strong indicator of a large bearish movement (likely to occur January-February sometime. That is when, seasonally, the Cable is at its weakest).

Open interest has rapidly increased on the cable, as well (up to almost a new 1 year high). This occurred during a consolidation, which is an indicator that there is a bearish reversal going to happen soon.

Overall - I am bullish on the very near term (1 week, tops), and bearish in the longer term. I am basically waiting for the big price reversal that seems like it is inevitably going to happen.

The Euro/Fiber is showing the same sort of thing as the Cable - big increase in open interest during a consolidation (lots of money moving in, means price is probably going to reverse). I am basically expecting price to reach for the highs above 1.3800, sweep them for stops, and then move on lower. Much, much lower. Commercials on the COT have also reduced longs - nearly net 0 now.

Cable proper:

I do not see the cable having the momentum to move all the way up to the 6600+ level before smashing back downwards. I'm expecting it to range between 1.6500 and 1.6250 for a bit, then move bullishly. I will be pretty nimble with my trades here, that's for sure.

Euro:

75 pips up to sweep the highs above 1.3830, and then down we go. The 4h OTE Short has me a bit concerned as to whether that will happen, but I think that's the most likely scenario. Will still remain nimble with my trades.

Thanks, and any questions, please feel free to ask!
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
Aarnog said:
I must say - 50 pips a trade is a very lofty goal - if I manage 50 pips a week, and I don't increase my lot sizes as my account increases, I will still manage over $100,000 this next year.

I think I mentioned this earlier - my actual goal is 50 pips a week. I aim for 1 trade in London open, and 1 trade in New York open 3-4 days a week, with a target of 30 pips per trade (so, if I have a perfect week, I will net nearly 250 pips, or 5x my goal!).

My current weakness is my consistency - once I get that higher, I can work on other areas of weakness.

Also - while work isn't charging me pips to be there, I hate my job. It's awful, and has both ruined my work-life balance (there is none - I don't do thing anymore because I am too exhausted from trading and working for 16-18 hours a day), and caused serious negative changes to my personality that I can not tolerate. I'm going to leave it at that, because I don't feel like opening the floodgates on what is wrong with my job/what it has done to me as a person.

So, really, I'm going to quit my current job no matter what - even if I wasn't trading at all, I'd still be quitting. Trading is basically just going to be the deciding factor as to when (or if!) I decide to apply for another job.
My ambiguous post - I meant trading $50per pip.

equates to $50x50pipsx40weeks = $100K per year.
I gave you 12 weeks off for good behavoiur LOL

My target is less than half yours. ie 80pips per month. I only enter setups with at least an TP RR 3:1, althought often reduced risk stops be out early for, say, 2:1, which is ok.

Once I hit my 80 I become highly selective and do not 'look' for trades, rather they have to be very obvious or very high RR (read lower risk for same reward. eg 10pips for 60 TP). The issue is always consistency, without which compounding is a bad strategy. I am not compounding.

PS very little reason to stay in a job you hate, provided that you have, or can create, other options.
 

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