Aarnog's Journal

A

Aarnog

Well-Known Member
Hey Guys, I've been following ICT for a good while now. I'm starting this journal because I want to get some public accountability for my trades, and maybe to swap ideas with you guys.

I've had a fair bit of success, and I'm hoping to be able to quit my job and trade full time within the next couple of weeks here (definitely before the new year), but we'll see how that goes - I'm still trying to gauge whether it was a lucky streak or not!

Anyway, my basic target is 30 pips per trade, 2x trades per day (1 in london open, on in new york open).

I will try to make a post a day, and update it as the day goes on - first I will post what I am targeting before I go to bed, then I will update with my entries, and then when I close the trade I will update once more with profit/loss, and what I learned/what I think I did right and wrong.

Please feel free to criticize my analysis! That's what I'm posting it here for!
 
Welcome,

I noticed the portion where you said you're going to quit your job?

Just remember sometimes it takes a while to learn how to trade, take it in baby steps but don't quit your job in an instant you're on a month hot streak. Remember moderation, it's ok to be excited but make sure you factor in the worst case scenario because a month hot streak can easily go the other way as well. Try to at least part-time, still got that influx of cash and when your trading well meets your expected salary including the downside factored in at its worse your still walking away with your rent and other expenses paid. But that's just my advice, cover your ass :nickleflip:.

Aside from that welcome and some of the other journalist are probably looking forward to chatting with you.

Also note it took me a year to even grasp the basic concepts of ICT's stuff lol. Despite thinking I knew it, it just grew from there.
 
I guess maybe I should tell my full story here so it doesn't look like I'm a total amateur!

So, I started trading about 5 years ago. Started following ICT after his first post on babypips.

I've been trading live for 3 years (getting close to 4 now). I started with $2000 initially, and traded my way all the way down to about $1000. This shook me right up - I was totally convinced I was ready to trade full time when I threw that $2000 into the account. I was wrong.

So, I took about 6 months off. I figure round 2 will be WAY more successful than round 1. Except I had trade paralysis - I would find trades, and then talk myself out of entering, only to find the trade would run my way. This would happen a couple times, and then I'd get frustrated and lose focus and my next trade would be a loser. Frustration mounted, and I just stopped trading for another few months.

Round 3! This time it'll work out, right? Well, sort of. I had about $600 in my account. I managed to turn that voice in my head that talked me out of trades off. Finally I was taking trades, but I wasn't really getting anywhere - any gains I would make would be offset by a loss either in the next session, or the next day. That, and the gains I was making were pretty paltry - I was having a REALLY hard time justifying losing 3 hours of sleep a night to maybe earn $40.00 - $50.00. Fast forward a few months, and I'm a little bit ahead, but nothing too exciting, and I'm just not earning enough to really consider the whole endeavor worthwhile. So I stop trading again.

In the interim, I switched jobs - my new job doubled my old job's salary. Suddenly I noticed I had a fair bit of cash saved up. I figured I might as well throw it into the trading account to bump my equity and actually make the dollar values worth my time and effort. Before I did that, I wanted to make sure I was able to consistently gain money, though.

So I start trading again - round 4! This time I'm being more sensible - doing legitimate analysis, preserving equity, etc. My real target here is to make 100% sure that month-over-month I am earning a positive return. Sure enough, I'm there! Three months later or so I am confident enough in my ability to maintain a positive return every month that I dump my savings (not my retirement savings or anything, just the extra cash I had from the new job) into the account. Turns out, when the numbers get bigger, I get more motivated to trade - while $40-$50/trade wasn't enough to get me out of bed, $200-$300/trade was. So, I keep up with it for a few more months. Some wins, some losses, but still coming out ahead.

Then, a couple weeks ago, I took a trade. I caught a news event, and price rocketed 75 pips in about 5-10 minutes. It's always fun to catch those, but with this one I realized that I earned more in those 75 pips than I will earn on my next paycheck. I hadn't been really paying attention to the dollar value of my returns until this point. Turns out, I'd tripled my account in the last few months. That brings me to where I am now. I am at the point where I am able to survive comfortable on 1-2 profitable 30-pip trades per week.

My goal at this point is to get my success rate up. I'm aiming for the 80-90% success rate (although I'd be happy with 75%).

As for quitting my job - that is a thing that is going to happen pretty much regardless of what happens with my trading account. The job is making me miserable, and I've just completed my Canadian Securities Course (which is going to help me get licensed!) which will let me get into my backup career as a financial advisor. I'm just thinking that I'm going to take 6 months (and I have enough in my savings to pay rent/expenses for at least 6 months) and try to use trading as my sole source of income.

My other option is to take my 6 months of savings and put them in to my trading account, which would more than double my trading income. It is an equally tempting proposition.

But yeah - I am looking to get away from the exhausting 18 hour days that I'm working at this point (10-12 hours at work, an hour at the gym, an hour for dinner, and then an hour of analysis + the 3-4 hours of trading time in London Open and New York Open), because the lack of sleep is starting to take it's toll on me - my short term memory is totally shot, and I'm noticing that I'm getting more and more irritable and aggressive (which is also probably a byproduct of my workplace). Not to mention being too tired to do anything with friends, family, or my girlfriend is starting to wear thin. So, hopefully you can understand my haste in trying to get trading full time!
 
Hi Aarnog,

Nice introduction and admire your persistence.

I'm not going to impart advice (for better or worse ), well not too much anyway :) as I'm not familiar with you or your situation.
That said I do agree with what Tansen said as regards covering your arse. When Trading is your sole form of income the game changes.....

There is no place for emotion in trading.
---------------------------------------------

I look forward to popping in here and reading your Journal

Cheers
 
Please - any and all advice is welcome! Whether I listen or not is another matter altogether ;).

But truthfully, I've got myself covered for the next 6 months at minimum, with probably close to another 6 months on top of that, just in case. And I have all kinds of career-based backup plans for myself, as well as a girlfriend who is just finishing up her nursing degree, so if for some reason things go really poorly and I lose all my trading money and then can't find a job within another 6 months with 2 degrees and my Canadian Securities Course designation then she can support me for some time while I figure out what has gone wrong.

And even if the worst case scenario does happen, I am still young and educated enough to bounce back from that sort of disaster. So the down-side has been more than looked after - I am, after all, not a risk-taking kind of person. I don't gamble (I don't even buy lottery tickets!), and I make sure I've got myself covered in case things go wrong when I do take a risk in my life. It's how I was raised.


SO! On to my analysis for tonight! It's a bit late, because I have been playing assassin's creed 4 all night, but it's here!

GBP/USD:
Market Flow: Technically bullish on the daily time frame - we have broken the high of 1.6115 made on Nov 6th, and have not broken any swing lows to the downside since.

Support/Resistance levels - we have a couple of hard s/r levels that I am eyeing up - the daily 1.6115, and the daily 1.6160 levels. The 1.6160 provided solid resistance yesterday, and the 1.6115 will likely do the same today.

Higher time frame OTE - The OTE zone is 1.6100 - 1.6170 on the 4h chart. Looks like the 79% retracement level did hold yesterday, which means that price is likely to continue downward to test the lows around 1.5900 - 1.5850. Especially if price breaks the 1h low at 1.6060. (Successful OTE entries tend to continue until they reach the 0% fib level)

Bonus: if we break Tuesday's low, we will very likely see it continue until Friday - possibly down all the way to 1.5980, maybe lower!

My plan for tonight? Short entry at 1.6100, looking to gain 30-40 pips.

EUR/USD:

Market flow: technically bullish - just cleared the previous high at 1.3445 yesterday before flying downwards - possible stop raid.

Support/resistance: support levels at 1.3400 and 1.3290 to contend with for downside objectives. Resistance at 1.3550. Looks like we're working the range between 1.3200 and 1.3550 on the daily at the moment.

Higher time frame OTE - bullish OTE range from 1.3265 - 1.3395. price has entered and reacted there once already, plus the 62% and 70.5% retracement levels line up really well with the above mentioned support levels - definitely something to watch out for.

we have broken yesterday's low on the Euro - I am expecting a judas move upwards, then a move downwards to retest at least the 1.3400 level.

If I enter on the euro, I'll be looking for a short around the asian session high @ 1.3440. I will very likely close or at least reduce my exposure at 1.3400.

Overall - I am short on both the Euro and the Pound. I am not long-term short on either pair though, especially with the bullish signals confounding things on the Euro.

Lets see how things go!

edit 1: So, took a short on the cable @ 1.6095. Price got to 1.6080 before I realized that the USDX was hitting a significant resistance area and was very likely to turn around. Closed cable trade for ~10 pips, re-entered long @ 1.6090, currently holding for 20-30 pips.

edit 2: Price is moving too slowly, and it's making me nervous. That, coupled with exhaustion, means I closed my second trade with ~5 pips profit, and I'm going to bed - hopefully New York is more fruitful!

edit 3: Just woke up - apparently I was WAY more tired than I thought I was - normally I wake up after 6-7 hours of sleep. Not 10-11. Yikes!

Either way - trade update. I'm up 15 pips for the day, which is fine. Looks like I was right, though, and should have held on to my long. This is why I try not to trade when I'm so tired - I very quickly convince myself that things are going to go against me, and close out trades LONG before I should.
 
What the, I didn't know you were Canadian as well as a CSC cert holder, maybe... I should consider taking it as well.

Also that's good, I just didn't want a story like in Jack's professionalism series thread where it says "Joe Schmo Six Pack" puts his life savings then lynches himself with devastating trade after another. We don't encourage betting it all on red but for the healthy development of the mind.

If your going to play both pairs just remember SMT divergence, which this week was a great example of as well as last week. One pair can be strong the other can be weak and they can move in opposite directions despite having the same pair off. The pay off could be one day Long Long and then the next could be still hold long and then short and then you return it to Long Long and ICT said once in his webinar you can absolutely short one long the other if your holding one pair you can move to the other one for a quick scalp or intra-day trade then reverse when appropriate.
 
Oh, absolutely. I LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE SMT Divergence. It is far and away my favorite tool because of how accurate it is, and it's ability to predict huge moves.

And yeah, like I said - my life savings are definitely, definitely not being put into this. I have my RSP's, and my TFSA filled up; and then the extra cash that is laying around in my account after my monthly expenses is what gets thrown into my trading account. It's either spend it on trading, or other dumb stuff, so if I can earn a return on it, why not?
 
I'm in Canada as well.
I have the CSC, CPH and am fully licensed in Options.
I work in Capital Markets.
Welcom Aarnog. I remember you back from babypips!
 
Unles it's for your job, it's not worth much. I mean it won't help with trading.

It will just tell you very basic stuff. I did it because I had to for the job.
 
I'm going to +1 what Sage says - unless you want a job that requires it, it's not really worth it. The knowledge is too broad to really apply to valuating financial markets.
 
Ah, I might just get it one day for the sake of having it. Jack tells me he has it as well and that it's literally no big deal.
 
I guess bragging rights do count for something!

Also, apologies. I didn't do a pre-market analysis today because I was busy playing video games (I took this week off, so I've been filling my free time with productive things. Like video games.)

Anyway - I am currently long on the Fiber. Saw a bullish SMT divergence between it and the Cable, so I figured I'd just leap in and take it. Currently up 20 pips or so. Gonna trail my stop up in a few minutes here because of the news coming out at 3:30am my time. Don't wanna lose too much if things don't go well, after all!

But yeah - basic premise behind the trade was that price was bullish on both cable and fiber, and there was an SMT divergence along with that.. So I went long at the asian session high (which is also at the 1.3480 significant level), and I figured that was good enough reason to take a quick trade. I'm really not looking for more than 20-30 pips on this one.

Also - stream of consciousness here - I am looking at the resistance level at 1.3550. If price reaches that level on the high impact news coming out and doesn't break it cleanly I am closing up shop for sure.

edit: Well well, looks like the speech that was suposed to start in 2 minutes actually started half an hour ago. That makes sense, really. In that case I'll probably let it ride until NYO and see what happens then.

edit 2: Nope, got tired, decided to take my 20 pips (low end of daily target) and head to sleep - have a good night! Hopefully I actually wake up for new york session today!
 
Aarnog said:
Please - any and all advice is welcome! Whether I listen or not is another matter altogether ;).

But truthfully, I've got myself covered for the next 6 months at minimum, with probably close to another 6 months on top of that, just in case. And I have all kinds of career-based backup plans for myself, as well as a girlfriend who is just finishing up her nursing degree, so if for some reason things go really poorly and I lose all my trading money and then can't find a job within another 6 months with 2 degrees and my Canadian Securities Course designation then she can support me for some time while I figure out what has gone wrong.

And even if the worst case scenario does happen, I am still young and educated enough to bounce back from that sort of disaster. So the down-side has been more than looked after - I am, after all, not a risk-taking kind of person. I don't gamble (I don't even buy lottery tickets!), and I make sure I've got myself covered in case things go wrong when I do take a risk in my life. It's how I was raised.


SO! On to my analysis for tonight! It's a bit late, because I have been playing assassin's creed 4 all night, but it's here!

GBP/USD:
Market Flow: Technically bullish on the daily time frame - we have broken the high of 1.6115 made on Nov 6th, and have not broken any swing lows to the downside since.

Support/Resistance levels - we have a couple of hard s/r levels that I am eyeing up - the daily 1.6115, and the daily 1.6160 levels. The 1.6160 provided solid resistance yesterday, and the 1.6115 will likely do the same today.

Higher time frame OTE - The OTE zone is 1.6100 - 1.6170 on the 4h chart. Looks like the 79% retracement level did hold yesterday, which means that price is likely to continue downward to test the lows around 1.5900 - 1.5850. Especially if price breaks the 1h low at 1.6060. (Successful OTE entries tend to continue until they reach the 0% fib level)

Bonus: if we break Tuesday's low, we will very likely see it continue until Friday - possibly down all the way to 1.5980, maybe lower!

My plan for tonight? Short entry at 1.6100, looking to gain 30-40 pips.

EUR/USD:

Market flow: technically bullish - just cleared the previous high at 1.3445 yesterday before flying downwards - possible stop raid.

Support/resistance: support levels at 1.3400 and 1.3290 to contend with for downside objectives. Resistance at 1.3550. Looks like we're working the range between 1.3200 and 1.3550 on the daily at the moment.

Higher time frame OTE - bullish OTE range from 1.3265 - 1.3395. price has entered and reacted there once already, plus the 62% and 70.5% retracement levels line up really well with the above mentioned support levels - definitely something to watch out for.

we have broken yesterday's low on the Euro - I am expecting a judas move upwards, then a move downwards to retest at least the 1.3400 level.

If I enter on the euro, I'll be looking for a short around the asian session high @ 1.3440. I will very likely close or at least reduce my exposure at 1.3400.

Overall - I am short on both the Euro and the Pound. I am not long-term short on either pair though, especially with the bullish signals confounding things on the Euro.

Lets see how things go!

edit 1: So, took a short on the cable @ 1.6095. Price got to 1.6080 before I realized that the USDX was hitting a significant resistance area and was very likely to turn around. Closed cable trade for ~10 pips, re-entered long @ 1.6090, currently holding for 20-30 pips.

edit 2: Price is moving too slowly, and it's making me nervous. That, coupled with exhaustion, means I closed my second trade with ~5 pips profit, and I'm going to bed - hopefully New York is more fruitful!

edit 3: Just woke up - apparently I was WAY more tired than I thought I was - normally I wake up after 6-7 hours of sleep. Not 10-11. Yikes!

Either way - trade update. I'm up 15 pips for the day, which is fine. Looks like I was right, though, and should have held on to my long. This is why I try not to trade when I'm so tired - I very quickly convince myself that things are going to go against me, and close out trades LONG before I should.
Click to expand...
Wow is this the Canadian tread? :drinking:
I am also LOL.
Similar trading experience, took $10,000,00 and the dream of giving up my job and proceeded to trade it down to $13.00 yes $13.00 (actually $12.75 :'( :'( :'( :'( ) by following the amazing forex guru's (ASSHOLES in english). I did not give up, went back to studying the market and forex forums where I stumbled upon ICT. I have traded my account back to $120.00 and plan on just keep building it up till i can afford to trade full time.
Wishing you great success EH! :cashjump:
PS: I live north of Toronto :)
 
Merry bunch of Canucks, lol. They are the best people in the world!

Cheers!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWQf13B8epw
 
It's Monday! That means a brand new top-down analysis! Weeee!

So, the COT data - The commercials are basically neutral on both the pound and euro (although the Euro has had one hell of a rally from its low a couple weeks ago, so if anything I'd expect to see some bullish action in the euro based purely on COT data).

Yields - there is bearish divergence between US, UK, and German yields (the German yields have failed to make a higher high, while the US and UK yields have made a higher high).

The USD Treasury yields are showing both bullish and bearish divergence - the 10 and 30 year yields have made higher highs, while the 2 and 5 have not. As well, the 2 year yields have made a lower low, but rallied last week, while the 5, 10, and 30 year yields have not. Given the rally in the 2 year yield, but the failure to rally in the other term yields, I would have to see this as bearish for the USD.

The USDX:
I'm going to say it's bearish on the weekly - the most recent significant lows having been taken out, with no really significant highs having been taken out - would not be surprised to see a retracement to 81.50 or a little bit higher to clear out some stops before heading lower.

Looking bearish on the daily overall as well - again, probably the 81.50 level being targeted before price moves.

The story looks pretty much the same on all time frames, really.

Cable:

Weekly chart - We are at the high end of a very long term weekly range (1.6250-ish). Price is probably going to swing above that and at least take out the stops. If price holds above the level, then we'll probably see some pretty handsome upside movement.

Daily charts - 1.6250 and 1.6300 are definitely, definitely the levels to watch this week. Call Kenny Loggins, because we're about to step into a zone. A zone of danger.

Nothing jumping out at me on the 4h and 1h charts, but the 15m is showing suppoert at 1.6215, which is a very clean level that needs to be raided. I'm probably going to look to get long around that level.

Euro:
Weekly:
Looking fairly bullish, levels 1.3690 and 1.3830 are the ones to watch over the next week or two.

Daily:
Looks like we're heading north off of a daily OTE (62% level, not quite the 70% that I like to see). If we can clear the 1.35370 I would be shocked if we didn't make it to the 1.3690 level at least.

H1:
Yeah, looks like they found liquidity at the 1.3400 level last week, and they're continuing to move price upwards. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a continuation up - especially with the COT Data being as it is.

M15:
1.3540 looks like a respectable entry level for a long trade this morning.

The plan:

Long on either fiber or cable, depending on which strikes my fancy. Going to look for a confirming signal in the technicals this morning just to make sure my entry is good. Looks like it'll be a slow news week, so I won't be aiming for much more than 20-30 pips per trade. Maybe 50 if I get lucky.

Let me know what you guys think/if I'm missing anything, etc. Criticize me and make me a better trader!

edit:

End of day update: I slept in because my alarm didn't go off. Looks like I was wrong in the direction for the day (but there is still the week - remember, the weekly low is usually made Tuesday sometime). I remain long, until we show some momentum either way and break a 1h or 4h low.
 
Sorry for the tremendously delayed response guys - ended up super busy last evening and didn't have time to write up a post.

Quick summary - even though I was dead wrong on the direction for Monday, I am still bullish into the rest of the week - the strong rejection in the pound and Euro are helping that.

I didn't get a long entry in LO (the entry was juuuust outside the window of me waking up), but I m currently long on the Cable at the OTE - 1.6160. Again, looking to take 20-30 pips.

edit: There is a very low probability this trade is going to work out for me. I fully expect to close this one out with a loss today!

edit 2: and there it is. Too bad!

Edit 3: there is nothing quite as annoying as being right, and still taking a loss.
 
Aarnog said:
Sorry for the tremendously delayed response guys - ended up super busy last evening and didn't have time to write up a post.

Quick summary - even though I was dead wrong on the direction for Monday, I am still bullish into the rest of the week - the strong rejection in the pound and Euro are helping that.

I didn't get a long entry in LO (the entry was juuuust outside the window of me waking up), but I m currently long on the Cable at the OTE - 1.6160. Again, looking to take 20-30 pips.

edit: There is a very low probability this trade is going to work out for me. I fully expect to close this one out with a loss today!

edit 2: and there it is. Too bad!

Edit 3: there is nothing quite as annoying as being right, and still taking a loss.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's the salt to the wound especially when you don't "have to risk that much" you have a tight stop or tighten it to b/e... THEN it comes back snaps you out.... THENNNN IT GOES.
 
So, I guess I should go over a lessons learned thing!

1: maybe a slightly wider stop - I did only really have 1 support level between price and my stop, instead of 2 (stop should have been below 1.6130).

2: Don't forget to check for larger OTE's! This one is a bit tougher for me, because it feels like I lose an equal number of trades either way - either I aim for the larger OTE and price hits a smaller OTE and doesn't trigger my entry, or I aim for a smaller OTE and price hits the bigger one and I get stopped out.

3: I would have absolutely taken a second entry at around 1.3145 had I not had to go to work. That's neither here nor there, though.
 
Aarnog said:
So, I guess I should go over a lessons learned thing!

1: maybe a slightly wider stop - I did only really have 1 support level between price and my stop, instead of 2 (stop should have been below 1.6130).

2: Don't forget to check for larger OTE's! This one is a bit tougher for me, because it feels like I lose an equal number of trades either way - either I aim for the larger OTE and price hits a smaller OTE and doesn't trigger my entry, or I aim for a smaller OTE and price hits the bigger one and I get stopped out.

3: I would have absolutely taken a second entry at around 1.3145 had I not had to go to work. That's neither here nor there, though.
Click to expand...


Well

1: maybe not necessarily, it depends what your looking for and what your willing to proactively manage. I used to use and still do SOMETIMES for GBP/USD since its very whippy at times, so I will use a 30 stop looking for 300 but that would typically take 2 weeks at best.

2: Larger OTE's are just congestion areas, you'll be lucky a lot of times just getting the fill but at the same times its such a large area you'll be exposed to more risk. You narrow it down to a price zone and trade it based on the killzone rules or levels.

3: Second entries are that of annoying and an art, since oanda does fifo i hate cancelling my oldest position when all I want to do is shave off my 2nd normal size position. Take them with caution unless they burst away after filling you then you can have confidence in your position but don't get mega greedy and t/p along the way
 
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