USD / JPY

Discussion in 'Interactive Trading' started by SLT, May 2, 2014.

  1. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,075
    Sounds good sqa. Slow and steady wins the race is a mature approach I reckon. I plan to cut back to focus on just 3 pairs because I plan to travel more. I could just stop but it get's in the blood. The question is, which three. It may vary based on where I am and for how long. Not going just yet so still time to put off the decision. Will have to think about whether to drop the Yen altogether.
     
  2. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    Realistically, it depends on where you're living. There are pairs that are a lot better at certain time frames.

    Minus the USD-JPY. It decides to set important levels at any point from Sunday Open to Friday Close.
     
  3. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,075
    Given the recency of our Elliott wave fun, I thought you might find this entertaining. From an EWI marketing piece:
    ---

    Here's a great example of how important it is to listen to the market -- instead of the news.

    On July 22, USDJPY -- a.k.a. the Japanese yen -- experienced a sharp intraday drop. The market quickly recovered -- but the next move, said the mainstream forex pundits, would largely depend on the events in Ukraine and Gaza. Said one forex strategist:

    "Until the market gets a better sense of the trajectory of those events, you can expect some residual caution." (July 18, Wall Street Journal)

    From an Elliott wave perspective, however, the next move was already becoming clear. On July 23, editor of our Currency Pro Service Jim Martens wrote:

    "Surprises are likely to work against the dollar, though we suspect [USDJPY] weakness will prove corrective."

    "Would prove corrective" -- meaning, on July 23 it was already clear that another USDJPY rally was coming. The yen indeed rallied, the very next day.

    Which brings us to this week’s trading. On Monday, USDJPY came out of the gate in a sideways move.

    In Elliott wave analysis, sideways moves are corrections. Based on where USDJPY was in its larger wave pattern, on Monday our Currency Pro Service team said that USDJPY was probably in a 4th wave, and another rally (in wave 5) was coming:

    [​IMG]

    Fast forward to Tuesday -- and USDJPY indeed rallied in 5th wave, as expected:

    [​IMG]

    We’ve long said that you don’t need to listen to the news to know a market trend. The news sometimes serves as a catalyst, but the trend itself is created by the collective psychology of the forex traders.

    As the psychology shifts from optimism to pessimism and back again, it shows you an Elliott wave pattern on the price chart.
    ---

    They conclude with their usual pitch. They trade as well as anyone else with 20/20 hindsight and they have a habit/style of making "interesting" forecasts and predictions, sometimes quite grandiose ones. When you make enough of these some are bound to appear brilliant in hindsight. When marketing they naturally fail to mention the many, many times they get it wrong, or the many times when getting it right was of no practical trading benefit at all. Still, it can be an amusement when bored enough.
     
  4. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    Surprisingly, they saw the same thing GdayFX saw, which was that confirmation of the Market Structure shift on the 23rd. After that, it's simply waiting out the run up. Not that it didn't take 2 weeks to do practically anything. In fact, today has done more Range than those 2 weeks, ugh.

    Still in a Long though. :) We'll see how far it runs up. Last bit targeted for TP at 103.30. We'll see if we clip that.

    And, being me, I'm obviously looking for a Short post-NFP.
     
  5. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    1,075
    That's great. Good luck with your target, the rally ends when it ends.

    And USDJPY being USDJPY it'll probably go sideways... ;)
     
  6. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    Do you think USDJPY will take a hit soon!

    could be an early call, though here is a chart, the high might get taken out then reverse, i dunno! just looking into it for a possible reversal on the horizon... im keen to get the board out, not that i can surf

    The second chart shows where it would have been a good position to go long London open last week
     

    Attached Files:

  7. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    any plan is better than no plan, as we know... (stick with your plan)
    ICT said he used to have trouble with taking profits or not taking them.
    Myself to many times i have been in profit with Cable & Fiber and thought, im going to leave this and watch it run to the moon! which ever side of the planet it was on at the time.
    So then i would watch it come back and take me out plenty of times, making nothing!
    I have decided to treat fiber & cable as the scalp pair only for me, take the pips and run,
    doing this has enabled me to watch other pairs on a longer term trade basis, not having to worry about weather i should take some off and let the rest run on fiber and cable.
    I like trading fiber and cable with the tight spreads... most of the time i can execute a trade within pips, but not all the time :(
    because of the losses, the trades i attempt to let run, don't pay me back!

    If i know ICT any bit at all, i would say he had to come up with that 20 20 20 20 etc idea to eliminate that very problem. with myself, i like to cut problems off at the neck and come up with another solution, hence taking full profits from a selected pair & letting profits run on others!

    While writing this, i am 25 pips in profit on Cable, but the shit thing is, i can see an elliottwave pattern/first fib extension that suggest it will run to 1.63, but if i dont take the profit now! i have just broken my personal rule! and its going higher again Lol, Fu***
    So what is my solution now? let it run or take another action, i just lifted the stop to 15 pips profit, that is plenty inside of Asia

    Just to ad to this conversation, i missed a bloody good entry on AUDCHF today, so i went long anyway though with very minimal risk as it took off already! i wasnt happy about it, but what do you do, the higher time frame suggested a bounce coming, so what happens on the Asia open? it bounces, the lower time frame was screaming buy me! but was i there? nup. i like to stay active during the day and not sit down to much, this is the disadvantage of trading sometimes, you kind of have to be there, but if you are not there, tough tittys
     

    Attached Files:

  8. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    There's an irony to the comment you responded to being from July. July was my best month so far. Then the environment changed to Trending, and I had to learn how to trade that. And it's taken a while.

    Still a lot to learn. I'm actually fairly flat since then, but learning what entries to *not* take has been the big learning experience. And how they like to kill you out of trades, as well.

    Now if my Cable trading was anywhere close to my Yen trading, I'd be a lot happier.
     
  9. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    use this as a position trade or take the pips and run?
     

    Attached Files:

  10. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    With last week's low still being in place (as of NYO on Thursday), I'd be happy to have taken my pips and ran. Not that I quite saw it correcting that far.
     
  11. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    I took the pips mate, i am getting tired off not taking profits when i should be.
    There is one thing i can not get my head around, and that is taking some off & play the wait and see game, to maybe or maybe not squeeze more out of the trade. It does not add up for me.
    I would rather take the 100% profit then use some of that profit to cover my next loss, its pretty simple!

    usdjpy displayed a continuation short in this chart,
    i only watch weekly daily h4 & h1 time frames now, im over watching smaller time frames, though it is the smaller time frames that have taught me a lot about price, so i cannot complain about that. I have been a bit up and down lately, so in my mind, its time for a change, with the seasons. The whole learning program has been great for all of us, as traders and personal development towards confidence and consistency within our trading.
    Naturally any one of us can go off the band wagon for a while, but sometimes we have to, well i do anyway... ;)
     

    Attached Files:

  12. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    Personally, due to using MT4, I set my entries as 50/50. I haven't quite figured out exactly how I'll normally set "most" Take Profits (working on staying in an Entry at the moment... there's been problems), but for the next phase of my development, I'm planning to put TPs at 3:1 or 4:1 and likely just leaving it there. Obviously it depends a bit on the trade setup, but I've still go discretion issues to work out firstly.

    Consistency first.

    However, 6:1 targets with a hard TP might serve well. Or the next, logical retracement level. Order Blocks do work both ways.
     
  13. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    Very low risk position trade
     

    Attached Files:

  14. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    COT chart
     

    Attached Files:

  15. Computater707

    Computater707 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    305
    Gday- Thanks for the COT chart. The divergence is useful information. I think that this leg up needs to set a high this week at about 109.00 to 110.00 to set the upper range for the next few months. If I understand your markup of the COT chart you are projecting a possible reversal below 104. I respectfully disagree because I believe that runs counter to the BOJ's current policy. I expect price the USD/JPY to range for the next few months

    I have added a couple of price charts that I worked up to analyze what I think are the Japan Central Banks intervention plans. I think that the new support level of 105.00 to 105.50 is their new line in the sand for the next few months. I expect that the USDJPY will trade in the 110.00 to 105.00 range for that time. Perhaps in a triangle.

    I expect them to do again what they have done before and that price action will pretty much follow along.
     

    Attached Files:

  16. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    Not wanting to put my cable and fiber longs at jeopardy, i have set usdjpy to break even, all three trades are at break even now

    usdjpy is only 15 pips below entry, could be taken out...
     
  17. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    I'm bias'd long at least until 108.50, but we seem to be in line for a Low around 107.50/60 again. I imagine US Equities might see a bit of a sell-off after that big week last week. Especially with FOMC on Wednesday.
     
  18. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Messages:
    577
    creating a monthly high top of wick?

    112.240 2008 high there abouts

    i have a short on AUDJPY now, has taken out 2008 high in 2013, this will be interesting
    if i get away with this, i will hold Aussie yen to 73.000

    AJ was around 98.000 in 1997/98

    Lori is posting USDJPY to 115.00 now http://screencast.com/t/CAsJ3qHY0q
     
  19. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2,427
    I sure look forward to 115's... since the huge Japan QE announcement I've been working longs across most of my accounts. Nothing huge size wise, just low leverage exposure to the fundamentals of it all. . .

    I love how stubborn the Japanese government is being.. "what's that? Printing money isn't working? Let's print metric shit tonnes more!" - the ongoing theme
     
  20. sqa

    sqa Village Scribe

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,201
    At some level, there is no real way to unwind the Government's Debt without default and that's the entire problem now. It's made very little sense to invest in Japan for a rather long time. It's precisely what happens when you build a monster Debt-fueled Asset bubble, then prevent it from completely correcting itself. Same thing is in the process of happening in the USA & Europe.
     

Share This Page