USD / JPY
- Thread starter SLT
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AusDoc said:Just as well it's just for kicks Dan, because it can't be an Elliott wave count shown like that. You have indicated waves of the same degree, ie (i) to (v), with a 5 count in both directions. You naughty boy!)
C waves can be in 5 waves! not just ABC corrections
Here is another piece of Elliottwave fun.
This shows a complex (ii) and simple (iv) or the so-called rule of alternans or simply alternation. The virtue is that the wave (iv) ends in the general area of wave four of (iii).
We then see a 3 wave counter trend count. This should be followed by a 5 wave advance that looks impulsive.
The thing is with Elliott stuff to only ever see it as some fun. Taking it seriously can be injurious to your wealth.
This shows a complex (ii) and simple (iv) or the so-called rule of alternans or simply alternation. The virtue is that the wave (iv) ends in the general area of wave four of (iii).
We then see a 3 wave counter trend count. This should be followed by a 5 wave advance that looks impulsive.
The thing is with Elliott stuff to only ever see it as some fun. Taking it seriously can be injurious to your wealth.
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sqa said:
Yeah, good question. USDX did well out of the data release and has broken 81 but this pair seems to have stalled.... again!
In EW terms if the wave count is correct (always an if, or, unless or until when discussing EW
) then we should get a 5 wave sequence down that at least takes out the lows. The C wave could extend to the common 127 fib extension which happens to be 102.002 but the proportion would start to look a bit off. Basically, if the count is valid, it can't go roaring a long way higher now as the ABC is a corrective pattern, not impulsive.You're right, it's fun to watch.
Have a good weekend
It'd be a lot easier to figure out if the Japanese & US Economies weren't in a competitive sucking competition. ;D
More seriously, I do view it to have more upside. Next week is NFP and the pair tends to be fairly clear about what it's going to do in the week before. So it's really just a question of where does it want to consolidate. The ran it up to a really sensitive level (101.85) on the HTF and popped above & below it today. We'll see what Sunday/Monday brings. This is a pair that'll put in a Multi-month Swing Point during Asia on a Monday.
More seriously, I do view it to have more upside. Next week is NFP and the pair tends to be fairly clear about what it's going to do in the week before. So it's really just a question of where does it want to consolidate. The ran it up to a really sensitive level (101.85) on the HTF and popped above & below it today. We'll see what Sunday/Monday brings. This is a pair that'll put in a Multi-month Swing Point during Asia on a Monday.
Running EW on a USD-JPY Friday might be considered a mild case of insanity. >
More seriously, I still see upside to the pair before a major drop. USD-JPY isn't one that likes to give up a good slaughter to all of the moves before a counter-move post NFP.
There's also a huge amount of Liquidity up above 102.20, which is my basic expectation. I also could be talked into Friday acting as a Bull Flag, though I'm really not good on that pattern.
It also helps I spent a while this weekend redoing all of my S&R work on the pair. Makes a lot more sense what it's been up to lately.
More seriously, I still see upside to the pair before a major drop. USD-JPY isn't one that likes to give up a good slaughter to all of the moves before a counter-move post NFP.
There's also a huge amount of Liquidity up above 102.20, which is my basic expectation. I also could be talked into Friday acting as a Bull Flag, though I'm really not good on that pattern.
It also helps I spent a while this weekend redoing all of my S&R work on the pair. Makes a lot more sense what it's been up to lately.
The close area on my H4 chart. I'm working harder to "sit" on this chart more than others.
I don't have any Order Blocks marked up on this view at the moment, but there's the little side issue that that pair has been so range bound that pretty much every S&R sits on a Daily Chart Order Block. I decided against marking 101.50 & 102.00 simply because I use a Big/Mid figure indicator. There's already enough lines on the chart (which was becoming a problem).
It'd also be nice if you couldn't make an argument for every 12 pips being an S&R on the pair, but that's just the nature of the current market. ???
I don't have any Order Blocks marked up on this view at the moment, but there's the little side issue that that pair has been so range bound that pretty much every S&R sits on a Daily Chart Order Block. I decided against marking 101.50 & 102.00 simply because I use a Big/Mid figure indicator. There's already enough lines on the chart (which was becoming a problem).
It'd also be nice if you couldn't make an argument for every 12 pips being an S&R on the pair, but that's just the nature of the current market. ???
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AusDoc said:
My assumption is a pair can go: Up, Down, Sideways or Cease to Exist. The Yen seems to be attempting to make a run at the 4th option.
Hilariously, it's served me well the last month to have my first Take Profit at the H4 Chart OTE retracement level. Mostly as it's felt the need to pivot there and break a range once per month. The sadder part is I'd have captured 85% of the previous month's moves had I just taken off 100% at those points. ???
It's also part of the reason I'm adding in the Cable (plus other pairs in the future) to my trading, lol. Helps if I'm around to confirm the trade setups I'm eyeing, though. Missed a really nice Judas Swing this morning.
sqa said:
Adding more pairs is like adding more kids... the workload adds exponentially. Or it at least feels like it. I developed a monitor for my pairs of interest so I can see at a glance just what price action is doing. I also track relative currency strength and relative currency strength trend as another way of selecting between pairs for more attention. Nothing stops the enjoyable part of eyeballing charts but it can certainly be helpful at times.
This is what I have on the end of one of my monitors.
More seriously, I'm pretty circumspect about the work difference, it's why it'll be a slow process. I only have plans for 5 total Pairs, and one of those isn't even on my radar until Spring next year. I've been very methodical about my approach into Forex, and, so far, it's worked out well. No amount of pre-planning can prepare you for execution/psychology/timing issues that simply go along with the work. And that's before you even trust your analysis.
So, it's just a matter of working through it at a steady rate. Though the USD-JPY has been a blessing in disguise. Learned a whole lot in a very short period of time taking profitable trades on it.
So, it's just a matter of working through it at a steady rate. Though the USD-JPY has been a blessing in disguise. Learned a whole lot in a very short period of time taking profitable trades on it.