Trading, Convoluted or Simplistic?

Discussion in 'Development and Psychology' started by Tansen, Aug 5, 2013.

  1. Tansen

    Tansen Well-Known Member

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    Seeing some posts by people who used to follow some of my mentors brings up a thought.

    Most of it is either hipsters wanting to be like YO MAN I WAS FIRST TO BE HATIN ON HIM I TOLD YOU SO and even more of them saying that were so emotionally invested they become hypocritical they don't realize that someone (I) do not forget and I am pretty sure there are a few people who don't as well. Lastly the bravado of some expecting to harvest followers to their personal cause.

    Often we know that an expert in any field lets say for example sake a plumber. He may know what that rattle in your pipe is or that large BURRR sound is just the pipe for your hot water having air trapped in it just by listening. To us it's latin to them it's dead simple because they have the training or experience to know what it is highly like to be. As for trading the smartest guys I know say, "dude it's simple" and the ones who have it the hardest say to me, "damn man markets these days are hard". Well Duh, I've only been told once in my life when I was a 2nd AC trainee that if I thought this was going to be hard things are going to be a lot harder here and in life for me. (Story another time maybe :p Distracts from point)

    So what does that mean? If your smart everything comes easy and if your not well... it's just going to get harder from here?

    What's the real hurdle? Is it the mental barrier of us making it harder than it should for trading or is it because we haven't had proper practice in place to say, "Pfft that's easy here lemme show you"?

    P.S It's so funny to see people who are so hypocritical of someone bask in forever misery until they get that one taste of a minuscule victory and never stop the cycle of their own misery.

    Anyways aside from all the digression. Is trading supposed to be difficult or easy? I don't like to gauge intelligence based on how many books a person has read on the subject or how many fund managers the person can socially engineer into being their friends. Experience vs high learning?

    Is trading supposed to be something so difficult that if I were to run out in the streets and pull a random person while blind folded I can try and explain to them how and what to do that they'd all be so confused they think I was so crazy investment banker still screwing the little guy (or just them as their usually referring to)?

    OR

    Is trading supposed to be so easy I could teach everyone so well they'd have to make factories print my money because some joe schmo six pack, thanks Jack for the reference, is able to just pick and go?
     
  2. fred9455

    fred9455 Well-Known Member

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    I find technical trading simple on paper. What I mean by that is I can spot the swing points, congestion zones, and areas of support/resistance in the charts. Where I struggle at is trusting my analysis which I guess is pretty much trade management. I have left over 500 pips of profit on the table this year because I didn't trust my profit taking levels.

    Also I have watched on numerous occasions how the banks play with price during intraday sessions. I usually notice it when I am up 30 or 40 pips. I know it is just a small range being built for accumulation/distribution, but it seems like they know how long to dangle the illusion that your trade is going to turn to make you bite. And as soon as you close out the trade it takes off for another 40 pips. I have fell victim to this trap numerous times. So does anyone know of any psychological or trading books that talks about the average time (I know everyone's trigger is different) it takes to trigger an emotional response from an individual.
     
  3. Tansen

    Tansen Well-Known Member

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    That's probably a Jack question fred lol.

    What I am curious about now is since I am aware of market fluctuation if this is kind of an ego block and that their so set in their ways that they feel that any "new", I say that very loosely since everyone wants to be the originator, is a major threat and that even though their system doesn't work their going to curse the world and continue to hinge on that style.

    Also if people feel, because I've heard this said before at work, that they need this degree or a masters in this to be able to trade.
     
  4. fred9455

    fred9455 Well-Known Member

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    I think you will always have people on both sides of the fence. Some have the natural ability to learn a system, find what works for them and fine tune it to fit their style of trading. While on the other side you have those that either have to take a number of beatings before they realize their mistakes and the traders that are just to stubborn to change from a system that doesn't work for them.

    At some point a trader has to stop blaming the world for their mistakes and take a serious look in the mirror and understand nobody made you take those trades or follow that system. There's a ton of systems out there, so if a trader can't find consistent success with their current system, it may be time to move on to find one that they can work with.
     
  5. Tansen

    Tansen Well-Known Member

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    If Jack ever decides to implement a like system I would spam the shit out of that right now lol.
     
  6. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    I think I see what you're getting at. You mean, timing out how long to wait on a pullback or stall before price continues? Or how long the average person will wait before they flatten out?

    The problem with approaching it from that point of view is that people are going to be entering a direction in a given pair in a very non-uniform basis, as entries will be all over the map and even when they are executed at around the same price the reason for getting into a position could be 'night and day' different between two traders... so the big boys aren't exactly trying to game them on a pure 'timing' basis alone. It's much easier for the big players to just provide liquidity against the trend (retailers love to trade counter trend and pick tops/bottoms,) or sniff out huge zones of accumulated orders.

    Plus, "the big boys" (meaning the 35+ major institutions and liquidity providers around the world) also game each other when they can... so it's not like they are all friends and working price in the same direction at the same time.

    Anyway, since it's impossible to get every pip in a move consistently, I'd put more focus on working the trade a bit more... maybe take a little off (1/3rd or so of your position) once you see it stall out, that will satisfy your urge to 'lock in profits' as you leave the rest to see the trade out.
     
  7. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Implement what in the where now? lol..
     
  8. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    I'mma skip the first part of your post since I might need a decoder ring to figure it out (drama on old forum?)

    --

    Trading is neither hard, nor easy, nor simple, nor complex... it's what you make of it.

    But reading through this thread makes me think there's one thing not being properly highlighted: When you bank profit, someone else, somewhere, is losing.

    It could be another trader who uses your broker and your broker internalized the order to them since they wanted to go the other way, or your broker directly (if they filled your order,) the prime broker behind them, the liquidity provider behind the prime, the bank behind the liquidity provider, the futures trader which took on the other side of the bank's hedged position in futures used to offset their spot risk, I could keep going on and on til your profit is accounted for on someone else's book of losses. (I didn't even mention how commercial hedgers are involved..)

    Because money is involved, some of the brightest minds in the world are trying to out 'game' their peers in this market. Firms hire entire floors of quants and research analysts, backed by floors of datacenters and servers to crunch stats all day... all to have the upper hand and know what risk is worth keeping on their books.

    That isn't to scare you though. It's because of such 'technological' and 'academic' arms race that we have spreads as tight as we do now, and can execute an order in the millions without really causing a splash in the spot market. . . some entity out there thinks they are smart enough to take the other side of the trade and not get hurt (or at least not get hurt if they keep taking the same type of position enough times and it averages out profitable for them.)

    With each new market participant, and with each additional technological complexity introduced, the price noise of how a pair moves from A to B gets a bit more random.. And all the hardware and gray matter in the world won't stop a sharp correction in the supply/demand curve for a given currency (like, when a central bank steps in and intervenes.. going with them can be some easy money.)

    BUT, does "Joe Sixpack" need to be progressively smarter to trade this? No, they just need to observe what's changed and adapt, while still keeping a firm control on their own 'human' elements that might trip them up (such as emotions.)

    After all, some of the most basic strategies still work when combined with a bit of discretion and time filtering. I'm not saying they are the best in the world, but even a small positive expectancy can build up over time into a decent return.
     
  9. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Just trying out insert images , was bullish eur when I created the trend line, pushed it over into blank space, 1 hr Fibre, recent action.

    Reference the age old ta vs fundies.
     

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  10. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ok, seems to have been duplicated, anyhow, the next chart shows what happened when price hit the then extended trend line, I hr fibre, recent, still figured a rise in Euro - all that good news coming out, looking for entry to upside.
     

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  11. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Looks like you got attachments down pat.. but while you're here, any thoughts on what Tansen posted at the start of this thread? (or any comments following.)

    ;P

    As for your charts, I'm personally hoping the EURUSD will start to see yearly price ranges (and vol) like it had 3-5 years ago, along with the ADR that comes with it. It might not seem like much, but it would make me a tad more confident in taking new high/low breaks for a continuation run.
     
  12. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    So far so good, still not sure if img is on the server, anyways, figured that this particular 1 hr trend line had served it's purpose (was only a 1 hr after all), the Euro seemed to have hit a ceiling at 3450, despite the fundies did not want to go on, hmmm, maybe now short, you know, taper and all.

    4 days later, little down trend, lets draw a line and extend it into space:
     

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  13. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ok, now the outcome of the trend line.
     

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  14. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    And so finally, where we are now, the trend line extended, the fundies probably suggesting that we sell the Euro, TA suggesting where we could possibly get in, now let's see:
     

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  15. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Yes, any image that's "attached" is uploaded to the FXGears web server and does not rely on any 3rd party host.

    Generally speaking, if it's within ~750 pixles in width, it will just enlarge when you click on the thumbnail, but if it's larger, you will get a new window popup with the full image upon clicking.

    Clicking on the file name link below it, as opposed to the thumbnail, will download the image.
     
  16. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Sorry Jack, was on a roll, I'm a self taught computer geek into the bargain, back in the 80's learned how to programme in msdos and basic (remember seeing the first GUI and saying 'nahh that'll never catch on, discarded my first mouse as a gimmick), I was just now using Jasc for the images, cut down the kb, upload seemed very fast, so hoping the images worked.

    Wish you well on fxgears, have the feeling that the future is bright.
     
  17. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Today price hit that yellow line right on the button at 3225, and was worth 40 pips.

    By all the posting I was making the point that sometimes trading can be very simple (not easy) - as simple as following a trend line, it is maybe us that makes it complicated :)

    I know that for myself, if I follow a really complicated set-up it gives me a sense of security in the trade, whereas a simple trade like the one above seems almost too simple and therefore the feeling of nah.. I'll need more before entering.
     

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  18. Alpha-Bet

    Alpha-Bet Well-Known Member

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    Trading is as convoluted or as simplistic as the individual.

    Inconsistent manual traders with a semblance of intuition in their trading should check their journals/diaries and line up a productive period.
    Yes... success feeds upon success, but i'd be pretty sure that period also coincided with a period of personal well being. Not just the rose coloured glasses of growing capital ;D, but also a good personal environment ( Relationships, doing a P.B. in a sport... whatever floats your boat)

    Yeah, I know we should be professional but professionals in all fields have bad days. Why they they head to the shrink for a bit of (re-) programming.

    In my opinion environment is key.
     
  19. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Here's a simple structured approach to a trading plan that helps cut through all the convoluted bumf.

    [​IMG]
    Source: Kim Krompass at https://www.priceactiontradersinstitute.com/

    Kim is a no-nonsense, real, price-action trader.
     

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