Tansen's Journal

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Piper

Guest
Basically what i wrote in my weekly analysis. But a bit different explanation.
Nice drawings anyways! ;D
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Yeah, damn white board needs some cleaning best way to clean it is to draw all over it again. Dried caked on dry erased is annoying to clean.

But you get why I chose to "focus" on the GBP right?

Yes I made a Euro trade earlier in the week but my attention was focused on GBP
 
P

Piper

Guest
From 4 days ago:
"
The recently bullish pound is dancing around the weekly support level of 1.56 . The 4hr market flow is bullish and the daily chart also.
The COT data for the pair is suggesting overall bullishness. The commercial traders increased their long positions(11k) and also added a bit of short contracts(5k) overall a 6.8k positive change in contracts to the long side, with an overall long position(+48k).Overall bullish.
The recent bullishness seems to suggest that the correlation with the euro has been nearly fixed (HTF daily 3yr period smt).
The daily stochastic at mid levels a bit tipped to the positive side, also strong bullish divergence present between the low of 23/7 to the low of 2/9.Open interest is flat. And a premium is present at the September contract.
Seasonals also pointing for an up move .

Conclusion:
The pound is showing underlying power and willingness to go higher. With the soft USDX the conclusion is pretty obvious for a bull pound.

Expectancy: The pound bounced down from the 1.5680 daily resistance level (also a stop raid, and banking level) optimally it would retrace to the 1.56 full figure level, what's also a weekly support level and lot of pivot and trinity confluence, plus an ote entry from the last fractal.
"
I think we're on the same page :)
What i'm noticing overall, that i'm too much overanalyzing instead of trading what i see. Finally i think i got an understanding of whats wrong lately.. And thats while i'm a bit drunk.Cool. Anyways its your trading journal and not my alcoholic tendency journal.. So time to STFU.. :)
GLGT
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Piper said:
From 4 days ago:
"
The recently bullish pound is dancing around the weekly support level of 1.56 . The 4hr market flow is bullish and the daily chart also.
The COT data for the pair is suggesting overall bullishness. The commercial traders increased their long positions(11k) and also added a bit of short contracts(5k) overall a 6.8k positive change in contracts to the long side, with an overall long position(+48k).Overall bullish.
The recent bullishness seems to suggest that the correlation with the euro has been nearly fixed (HTF daily 3yr period smt).
The daily stochastic at mid levels a bit tipped to the positive side, also strong bullish divergence present between the low of 23/7 to the low of 2/9.Open interest is flat. And a premium is present at the September contract.
Seasonals also pointing for an up move .

Conclusion:
The pound is showing underlying power and willingness to go higher. With the soft USDX the conclusion is pretty obvious for a bull pound.

Expectancy: The pound bounced down from the 1.5680 daily resistance level (also a stop raid, and banking level) optimally it would retrace to the 1.56 full figure level, what's also a weekly support level and lot of pivot and trinity confluence, plus an ote entry from the last fractal.
"
I think we're on the same page :)
What i'm noticing overall, that i'm too much overanalyzing instead of trading what i see. Finally i think i got an understanding of whats wrong lately.. And thats while i'm a bit drunk.Cool. Anyways its your trading journal and not my alcoholic tendency journal.. So time to STFU.. :)
GLGT
Oh I am lazy as hell lol, over analyzing still happens despite that but that's why I do one master one at the beginning of the week and then just kind of half ass through until something triggers or prompts me to get look into
 
P

Piper

Guest
Tansen said:
Yeah, damn white board needs some cleaning best way to clean it is to draw all over it again. Dried caked on dry erased is annoying to clean.

But you get why I chose to "focus" on the GBP right?

Yes I made a Euro trade earlier in the week but my attention was focused on GBP
Yes and i also get it why.Since we're ICT students,we're expected some kind of USDX retracement in the beginning of the week whats usually happens/Probably that was the reason for the short fiber.
Except this time it did not happened.Well sh*t happes. :)The diff that i was locked in to that,and you're not(well i guess it's since i'm just a neophyte,lol). Need to be more flexible :eek: But whats now even more confusing that if probably low or high happens in the beginning of the week,now we're up for the retracement???? Crap... A confusing week :)
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
kongzz said:
Hey Tansen, whats your userid for dota 2? maybe we can play tgt while waiting for trades lol...
I usually play only bots by myself which is counter intuitive to the online component lol. However with my on and off again time I am prone to being terrible or worse leaving a game.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
So I took a bit of a loss a few days ago when I tried to add to my long again and it punched me down in the face and I took another long position last night saw it ran 20 pips for me then back to 10 went to bed woke up at 80 pips still holding

 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Stephen said:
No EUR/USD trading for me...yet. I'm long GE, up 2% today. ;D

I called Scottrade today and they told me they don't offer forex trading. :(
US Citizen? Or non-US?

Maybe I can point you in the right direction.

One broker doesn't always do every market well, so don't be worried about Scottrade not doing FX, it's probably for the better.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Tansen said:
So I took a bit of a loss a few days ago when I tried to add to my long again and it punched me down in the face and I took another long position last night saw it ran 20 pips for me then back to 10 went to bed woke up at 80 pips still holding
Weekend gaps for you! :D You got a nice buffer leading into it so hopefully we get some kind of continuation at the start of next week.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Stephen said:
US Citizen. If Forex trading doesn't work out, I'm thinking about learning how to make money trading options.
For US citizens, Oanda isn't a bad bet for a beginner in FX. Specifically because you can use unit sizes down to just 1 unit of currency for a trade (in contrast, nearly every other broker has a $1k or $10k trade size minimum.) This way you can keep your risk extremely small while you're learning but still trade live (...leveraged FX has an extremely high mortality rate, and most of it comes from people who are new to FX using an inappropriate amount of risk/leverage on their trades.)

Tansen actually wrote his view of them here:
http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,26.msg316.html#msg316

--

It's hard to recommend other brokers in the US (I usually like giving a few options) but sadly the FX industry in the US has consolidated or died down to just a hand full of choices over the last few years.
 

Stephen

Active Member
Jack said:
For US citizens, Oanda isn't a bad bet for a beginner in FX
Thanks, I was wondering what trading platform to use. My CPA girlfriend just saw me typing this and said she uses Oanda at work to get current exchange rates.

Oanda makes money via the spreads, right?
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Stephen said:
Thanks, I was wondering what trading platform to use. My CPA girlfriend just saw me typing this and said she uses Oanda at work to get current exchange rates.

Oanda makes money via the spreads, right?
Since I don't wish to derail Tansen's journal thread, do feel free to ask more questions in the Oanda thread I linked. Happy to help there. :)

--

Yes, they are compensated through the spread on the currency pair (well, that's the basics of it, it's a little more complicated than that but generally speaking they get a tighter rate from their bank partners and mark it up a bit and quote it to you,) so there is no commission or the like charged to conduct a trade as the cost is built into the spread itself.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Jack said:
Since I don't wish to derail Tansen's journal thread, do feel free to ask more questions in the Oanda thread I linked. Happy to help there. :)

--

Yes, they are compensated through the spread on the currency pair (well, that's the basics of it, it's a little more complicated than that but generally speaking they get a tighter rate from their bank partners and mark it up a bit and quote it to you,) so there is no commission or the like charged to conduct a trade as the cost is built into the spread itself.
Pfft derail it all you want I would probably join in.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
So lets keep this rolling.

So firstly I want to say I am avoiding this week, again lazy. But one thing I dislike doing is continuing taking trades while I`m in a swing unless it will present an opportunity like last week to scale in but even then so I am very leery right now considering I have a driving test next week and so this week is prep week.




So lets start as you can see there`s acquisition on both sides long and short however I`d still stick with my previous statement of sticking with the GBP for longs specifically.

As you can see bonds did some very lazy action building up to something. But... whats this I see? Between the DX and the bonds isn't it a little strange?





Isn't it a little interesting how this lined up? I only marked the 2 and 5 because I am for the most part intra-daying or intra-weeking. Now I am saying this in the, wait for it h word, HINDSIGHT. However as you can pretty much see I took advantage something that I felt would plausibly play out and therefore it did.





The fib is in there for convenience I drew it last week and thought hmm I wonder if those two pivots had any significance because they were within the rule of the 15 pip confluence and though the 423 falls short of its still highly significant and therefore my plausible entry since I am getting a little antsy with this position.

I am looking to take out 1 position there (The oldest) and plausibly riding out more depending on what the market wants to give me. I will probably scale in throughout the week but judging by the asia session now and wait. I may even get some 40 odd winks for the first time in weeks.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Stephen said:
How much do the long/shorts affect your decision making?
It depends on the weighing and if their acquiring more longs in one side I want to place myself there until they are generally getting released ie. Longs are starting to decrease and shorts are starting to pile up. It's random most of the time but for the most part if you graphed their positions their probably not even close to being diametrically opposed
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Stops were moved long ago on Sunday or something, still in action for me so no need to really anything, ZzzzzZZZz
 

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