Tansen's Journal


Tansen

Well-Known Member
I've been highly highly HIGHLY resistant of posting one for the sole reason that I don't like to broadcast every little thing I'm doing. However public accountability would probably be good for my own discipline.

I will be touching on Forex mainly MAYBE equities but for now it's up in the air.

Firstly, This is NOT meant to be a signal service. The assumptions I will make are based on my personal discretion and can change on a whim any attempt to follow or mimic my trades without the aid of your own research will result in imminent failure to which you accept personal responsibility for your actions.

Secondly, A lot of my practices are based on that of ICT's core material so what that means is I can only explain so far before I start to make less sense.

Thirdly, Regardless of my moderator status your statements will not be censored and I will not hold a critical opinion against you. I will not be using my powers to censor anything in this thread so feel free to post whatever is on your mind.

Lastly, I will start and stop from time to time because various reasons, so no updates will remain consistent especially if I run into a long term swing trade, that of +1week, apart from that I may just update based upon trades I have already taken or have finished.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member


So lets start, Range on the DX Bonds are up but we saw a down slide and a huge booster on the charts such aggressive moves.

Also confirmed via COT charts, Main focus on the GBP because of the heavy interest in longs vs the EUR which seems to be mid transition or confused.





This confirms my decision GBP (Pink) has made a higher high where as despite the euro being overall MS up it's broken some intermediate lows therefore is kind of weak.






DX range makes sense on this chart seeing as my levels lay in with where they are therefore its plausible I can expect some ranging again before we launch, maybe some pull back or maybe some major up coming high.


Therefore with all that is said I am long GBP short EUR.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member


Made a mistake decided to go short waking up but I changed it up and took a long thinking that it may have just been a 1:1 swing and it was... more than that
 
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Piper

Guest
This is going to be interesting.:)
BTW i see you are also utilizing hedging,never really got into that..
Is it a worthy tactic to look into?
 

Stephen

Active Member
Tansen said:
Made a mistake decided to go short waking up but I changed it up and took a long thinking that it may have just been a 1:1 swing and it was... more than that
Looks like it's going to end up being a very good day for both of us. I'm a happy man today.
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Piper said:
This is going to be interesting.:)
BTW i see you are also utilizing hedging,never really got into that..
Is it a worthy tactic to look into?
It's not so much hedging as it is more correlation strength.

Much like how people utilize the EUR/GBP to gauge the EUR/USD and GBP/USD its essentially the same thing but a lazy version of how people do the EUR/GBP which is usually I set levels and see it's going up therefore I am long the euro because it's the stronger currency, but where it may fail is if the pair is stagnant OR if the pair doesn't correlate because they both could be strong just one is stronger than the other and therefore has the highest odds of going further.

In laymen's term just because EUR/GBP is going down doesn't mean GBP/USD essentially will drop like a rock it may in turn be bullish as well.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Yeah, I think he got stopped out first before switching directions, so not a hedge.

I generally speak out against hedging a position on the same currency pair.. too few situations where it's appropriate. (Mixing swing trades and scalps on the same account comes to mind, but other than that, it's always best to just reduce or eliminate exposure vs hedging... on a cost basis that is, it's always cheaper than paying the spread again to hedge.)

People get heated about this subject, they'll defending hedging like it's the holy grail, but it's all a mental difference (grasping exposure) in the end, and on a pure cost basis it doesn't help.
 

kongzz

Well-Known Member
was looking at the same setup but i guess price found support at July's high :-[

who knows, maybe a NYO trade on the retracement to previous high.. 57500 level?
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member


So I decided to do a double play today and well, I didn't have faith in the Euro however I put an order since the asian range rule was fulfilled and it presented a nice OTE however I missed the fill by a few pips





I did take GBP and I did miss it by a few pips because it didn't fill me however kind of thankfully I got just out of my dota game just in time to see oh snap I was right but i missed it by a few pips and I felt I could stomach a 12 pip risk because if it busts lower it will punch that low anyways which could mean either im wrong or we're just going to wait till NY however I took it went back to my game didn't decide on a 20 pip 1st TP because well its the GBP and it has more volatile moves than the EUR does despite it's usual range of 60-80 pips therefore I decided to wait after my match to see how far it shimmys and then put the tp to the next avaliable fib level... then it RALLIED 1.5820~. I managed to nab 1.5727 set a t/p order at 1.5815 thinking it may reach there again at NY or the following day finished my match and went to bed woke up it was t/p'd and just waiting to see what are in store for bonds to see if this is a worth while long term


Hmm I guess I forgot to reveal the layers again but the total move on the GBP from there to the top was 97 pips.


But this is a prime example of what I mean by correlated strength. The GBP had 150k long to 80k something shorts where as the euro was pretty much 1:1 so therefore the GBP has the strength to go up further
 
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Piper

Guest
Tansen said:
But this is a prime example of what I mean by correlated strength. The GBP had 150k long to 80k something shorts where as the euro was pretty much 1:1 so therefore the GBP has the strength to go up further
Could you explain it a bit further? Still have no idea what u mean..
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Piper said:
Could you explain it a bit further? Still have no idea what u mean..
Whoops made a mistake it was 100k to 50k Check out the 3rd post on the bottom right of the COT report, it says in Pound the comms are holding 100k long and 50k short as compared to the euro which is 99 to 107k or pretty much 1 for 1 for every 1 long their holding at least 1 short. It's even there's no bias. Where as the pound you can clearly see people are long and significantly about for every 2 longs there is 1 short. Which would mean if you were to seek longs this week like what I was doing the GBP is more likely because they have already bought or are buying still and most down moves will be protected
 
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Piper

Guest
Wohohoooo how did i missed that!!another dota player!! The wc3 ver?
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
I illustrated crudely here so first image as you can see is why I chose the GBP as a primary focus for longs, the weighting of it is that of double what the shorts are therefore if we were to balance it would have a stronger push behind it.


In image two you see the EUR which is stable its relatively even. It's balanced so either way it goes it will move regularly but there wouldn't be the strength or hard push behind it.
 

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