Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by outthislife, Feb 1, 2015.
Yeah, little over 100. Got out at the 261 extension near 1700 GMT
Looking at this set up for tonight's LO. Anyone else thinking the same thing???
Noticed a higher OB than the one I posted yesterday and saw SMT divergence during LO.
great analysis, but your fill suggests that you made the trade first, then did the analysis lol
You always gotta question my entries huh?
I entered in an OTE (and an institutional level) when I first saw the divergence in LO. I posted the breaker set up cause I thought the technicals were very nice and because ICTs breaker example (and entry) yesterday was a bit fuzzy to me, and today's action is what I anticipate a breaker trade to look like.
Shoulda been more clear in my original post.
On a more serious note, I also took that trade. Initially had a Pending at AR low which I missed by about 0.5 pips. Spreads seem wider now, after Swiss fiasco.
Afterwards entered on the m5 OB, nearly missed it again, DD only one pip. There was significant SMT div Cable/Fiber ie Cable higher Lows, Fiber lower Lows.
Exited too early at about 60pips ie RR 3:1
can't comment on the divergences personally, but sure did see this mitigation block. Precise entry defined by the 1H order block, shown with blue line.
PS. you've bested me again rod178! you're quite a good trader aren't you? :hail:
Nice. I didn't even see the mitigation block. Even more confluence for a long.
LOL, only when I stick to trading the LOKZ.
Good point about the Mitigation Block, which I must admit I've been too lazy to study up on.
I just look at the Mitigation Block as an area of congestion, like a zone of Support. All the same thing I suppose(?)
No, it's just as precise as the OB, the key levels of course being the Open and Close. I love it, the concept is basically "damage control" by the players big enough to move the market (lookin at you CBs). Their positions go Negative, but luckily they ARE the market so they take it back down to BE and collapse positions. It works best when one side of the market clearly got caught with their pants down and will need to scramble to get out. That's my take on it, worth the study.
can some one explain in a simple term SMT divergence from practical point of view. USDX made today high from tomorrow's low, Euro did opposite which is natural and GBP didn't, i.e it went up. Does it mean that GBP will fall and follow Euro or Euro will go up and follow GBP? sorry if mistakes in my writing. Thanks in advance.Ali.
The was also an OB and 15M SMT the other way around, with major trend, with stop run, OTE 79%, major S&R level, big figure, time of the day, etc..., but the price didn't turn. In other words a short at 1.52 middle morning 9:25 GMT, stopped out. Guys you should post your losing trades even more than the winning ones.
On the contrary, short NU at 0.7447 with "similar" premises:
Stop Run, SMT 15M, S&R level, OB-, major trend, middle figure, Time of the day, OTE 79%, closed on LC, +4%.
Now what works and what doesn't, difficult to say but as long as the equity grows, there is hope.
Interesting *rubs chin*
By themselves, the 'confirmation' and 'entry' tools mean little, you have to be aware of the 'big picture' eg the 'Breaker' (as pointed out bt GG), higher TF OB's etc. Hence you first need to be looking for the Long, then drop down to the lower TF and use the tools eg look for an SMT footprint., as below. I do not use Fibs, rather lower TF OBs to optimize the entry. ie maximize RR.
I've been noticing, just in the last few days that SMT has regained popularity, that the setups where SMT is being identified and bet on Live, are ending up in Loss. It seems the only successful examples are being shown in hindsight... after the move already occurs. Which suggests to me people are more interested in *proving* that the tool works, than actually judging it objectively.
Not to mention the fact that whenever ICT highlights a concept, there is always an absurd OVERUSE of the concept in the days following. ICT talks about SMT, suddently everyone sees SMT divergence everywhere! Think that's a coincidence?
Plenty of people guilty of not thinking for themselves 'round here >
Big picture? well that's really an opinion many times... if these tools have little meaning we should not use them. The only thing I can prove is these tools helped me getting into better trades overall. This is a fact I can prove for certain since I traded them on the right side of the chart. But even then it's not easy, so either ICT is hiding something or it's that part of experience he has which cannot be taught.
Sounds more like a filter or confirmation trigger is needed... seeing a divergence in general (as with ALL divergence trading,) doesn't mean much as they happen all the time.
What does ICT use along with the divergence for SMT setups?
Straight from my notes on the Webinar:
"We don't pop up Charts LOOKING for SMT Divergence. It's a confirmation Tool." It's a final filter that ICT uses most of the time, at least for the bigger move-type trades.
Bingo, so people hunting for SMT right now have the process backwards.. 'cart before the horse' as they say.
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