Piper's techno fundal trading journal

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
1st of all thanks for taking your time with your opinion.It's much appreciated.


That's a sound idea !This will cut the losses by 50%,and maybe lower the profits by 10% with the deep fib entries.Overall that's a very small price to pay to avoid half of my losses.Added to my trading plan and will utilize it from now!
Thank you Master Sensei 8)

The fiber setup nuked for -10 pips and about -0.2 % luckily with the opening gap my trade manager scaled out and moved the s/l. Really would have waited lol don't like the idea of weekend trades,the market triggered my limit on the NFP.
Right, but there is one scenario where your risk isn't lowered by 50%, that's when you get your 2nd half in only to see price then turn bad. In this case, which won't be the majority of times, you'd ideally have lowered your stop losses to adjust for the 2nd entry and your max $ risk on the trade.

So it doesn't help in 100% of the cases, but in most cases it can help smooth out the old equity curve a bit.

Of course, it needs to fit with the strategy, some strategies just don't allow for it and you have to be 'all in' from the start. Scalping for instance, it's hard to "average up" when you're only going for 5 pips of profit. lol.

In any case, glad I could help. :)
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Also, your USDX analysis is playing out so far. :) Not a 'dropping stone in water' move, but we haven't breached new highs just yet.
 
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Piper

Guest
fiber trade seems like arent going anywhere.turned to bull mf on the 4hr.closed for +9 pips overall

but still hoping to milk something out of the day.
 
P

Piper

Guest
Jack said:
Also, your USDX analysis is playing out so far. :) Not a 'dropping stone in water' move, but we haven't breached new highs just yet.
well..with the possible war scenario i think anything is possible.Main reason i'm in only with 0.5-1% trades :) The only thing thats contrary now to my usdx analysis is the daily fast stoch. Its starting to reach oversold. Need to keep an eye out on that
 
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Piper

Guest
11/9/2013

Some speculation:

Finally the war is off from our head.So back to normal trading.
If the last fractal will not be penetrated by the last 2 candles then the fractal from 9.9 16:00 would turn into a ITL as defined by market structure and then probably will see a retracement



time will tell.(61 min to be exact ;D )

Update on cable setup:the entry missed by 2 pips,but i don't care even if i'm missed about 30 pips for this moment.I'm very happy with my self since i haven't pulled the trigger manually.Removed the setup since my new usdx theory, if it'll work the setup will be rendered invalid.if the theory will be right,and actually a ITL will form, then i'm back to hunting short fiber setups.And finally will have an established range Since last ITH to this ITL to trade.(well at least till it'll be nuked)
 
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Piper

Guest
Well,seems like nothing really working out today..Sh*t happens.At least waited for confirmation,what never came :) Reinstated the 1.5750 long cable order,since now its valid again. And also got kicked out from a fiber short LC setup at 1.33.for -10 pips.Overall -1 pip today. :eek:
 
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Piper

Guest
This mornings setup:
Long fiber at 1.3297.
The resoning behind:
The cable is the stronger in the Cot and in the latest swings.but its overbought, and market sentiment is very high near a Htf resistance level.
And there is a big premium on the euro futures.this setup also takes place on the daily pp, ote from LC session wr2 and the 1.33 support level big figure.If itll go up, then i'll take out 30% at 30 pips and at 1.335 will be out with 70%(htf resistance) and be then i'll let it run untill i'll see a clear sign of reversal.
Hope that MR smart money also knows that hes supposed to jack prices up :))
GLGT

Edit: moved entry to 1.33 , and got filled
Edit 2: setup nuked.-25 pips
 
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Piper

Guest
Well,last qualifying setup for the week.4hr long setup,waited for confirmation entry.If it'll fail,my Daylight limit is reached for the week.


could've bought the pound via confluencing support and SMT correlation, what,if would play out probably should be a better result ,since its the stronger pair,but felt safer with the fiber since this was an ICT textbook entry :)
Edit: and textbook results. 70% out at 50 pips tp set to 1.335 s/l to BE.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
Well,seems like nothing really working out today..Sh*t happens.At least waited for confirmation,what never came :) Reinstated the 1.5750 long cable order,since now its valid again. And also got kicked out from a fiber short LC setup at 1.33.for -10 pips.Overall -1 pip today. :eek:
Gotta grind it out. :)

There will be times when the strategy you're the most confident in has a run of losers. You simply must embrace that the distribution of winners and losers will be random, even with high hit rate setups (a 70%+ hit rate system can still easily have 3-4 losers in a row.)

The trick is not to let the string of losers affect your ability to execute trades "well". . . it's all to common for a few losers to send traders on revenge trades, larger risk trades to 'recover quicker', or the like... this gets people into trouble. The human element can blunt any systematic edge people create just as fast as the market.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
could've bought the pound via confluencing support and SMT correlation,
Tansen grabbed pound long recently.. even on the way up instead of waiting for absolute lows.. and is currently riding it up. The sentiment both of you had proved very much so correct.
 

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