Piper's techno fundal trading journal


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Piper

Guest
Hi guys!

This is going to be my journal.Since i'm a really lazy with certain things(like keeping a journal for myself) i hope if i'll turn it to a community experience,it'll take off,i'm intending to post here after every trading day good or bad. This will be mixed with some of my forward analysis (before the day). And hindsight if I'll actually find out about my specific mistake.Some fundamental analysis.I'm also planning to post here my thoughts about trading,fears and everything in general connected with trading.
If even one will learn a thing for a benefit,this threads goal is achieved.

I'm swing trader/scalper,who utilizes fundemental and htf analysis broken down,then searching for bounces/turning points.

The pairs:
cable/fiber and eur/gbp

(This i stole from Jacks autotrade thread,tnx Jack)
Do Not's:

Do not ask me to reveal any strategies.
Do not ask me to sell anything.

Do's:

Do ask questions, give your opinion, suggest things... etc..
Do be positive and polite toward other traders posting here.



Cheers

Became irrelevant,soz :)
 
P

Piper

Guest
It's not new at all,and posted in another place,and from now on i think i'll experience with a more described format,of the trades i took,and the thoughts afterward,with exception to ongoing trades of course.

15.7.13
This Monday ,my brand new shiny 2k live account waited for me to start. Started to trade. In the LO upped it by 4%. Same day finished with a drawdown of gross 5%(1.88k). Been a bit nervous. Specially because of ultra stupid mistakes(including things like i'm sitting with a printed out dollar chart right before my eyes,with a clearly marked red line i drew in my weekend analysis, of about 4 confluences ,and not paying attention to it, letting losses run, and cutting wins short). Went on to relax and blow some steam off.

16.7.13
Tuesday got up. Finished my daily analysis.I did some really bad trading,with cutting winners very early(caught almost every damn swing point on a cable Z-day and cutted them off early at 1st sign of reversal :( )and took on bad on the fiber(really really bad),but finished with 15%gross (2.2k)The 90 pips i got out is great, no complaints here(if I would just let the price run and finish on limit instead of “managing” my position that would be 250+ pips).

17.7.13
Yesterday i've got up,drank a cup of coffee,and turned the charts on.Had a big grin on my face.While i slept a cable sell limit got in,40 pips in the morning never feels bad :).With a preimise on my mind the trade after it rode the morning judas closed the short and went long at 1.50835 and I actively managed it to stoploss at 1.5092, on the last retracement of a 150 pips rally. Now that’s made me angry and annoyed. (It seems that my trades managing them selves better than I do :) ) Started a pretty “interactive” trading session out of fustration. It was a disaster as I’m reflecting on it now I’ve made every possible mistake, and violated almost every rule in my book. Could have made a lot, with a bit of discipline and patience. Instead I’ve entered an emotional roller coaster. A few times there were some prayers to all kinds of forex deities like:”Please God let me just get BE on this one!”Well they didn’t really listened..Yet finished the day with 2.25K balance and 2.35K equity, as it is right now. My myfxbook balance looks like Fibonacci retracements(at least in an uptrend for now). Still I’m pretty content with almost 20% gain although it could be much more.

Suddenly recalled a sentence from the Trading in the Zone: You can be the best analyst in the world, and your trading will still suck.(That’s the book that I’ve throw aside in my infinite wisdom after the 1st chapter). At the evening I’ve decided that I’m pretty much done for the week, except managing my two open position trades. Started to read again the Zone book, and I’ll focus on developing more discipline and patience.(Maybe I’ll sign up to yoga or something). :)

18.7.13

Although I saw some awesome trade setups at LO,i've managed to not to place any limit orders to enter.The only thing i did,is to place an exit limit on two open position trades.Both short,one is on the cable the second is fiber from yesterdays high.Both exited at this mornings suspected Judas entry limit with some nice pip hauls.I was happy,yet enormously exhausted,haven't slept too well..
I knew the price will go up at the Judas,and i knew I can catch it for some nice moves,and yet i refused.I'm not sure that it was because I'm so disciplined.I just felt mentally too exhausted and stressed to enter another trade and start to manage it.The stress of constant retracment hunting on Zdays took it's mental toll.I'm starting to suspect that i'll maybe go more on swing trading,or less agressive scalping(when i say scalping,i don't mean 3-4 pips gambling,but intraday retracement trades with at least 20 pis expectancy)
After i closed,i watched price going down and then getting a rejection.A nice Judas setup to trade on an OTE to enter it.The Dx confirmed it just fine with a sweet SMT divergence,yet couldn't cared less.Out of curiosity i left the chart open to see the confirmation.As the price started to shoot up on the cable with a 30 pips move,i closed my metatrader terminal,and went on with my day,tired,yet very contempt with this weeks results(less happy with my trading style and many many mistakes),what is a net +25.83% At a balance of 2.515K USD.
Its just about time to relax,catch up with some friends,grab a beer,and enjoy life in general.Have a nice weekend everybody!

GLGT
Cheers,
Piper
 
P

Piper

Guest
Yes a lot.I'm exactly moving to another apartment,hopefully will finish with that soon,than this journal will continue.I made around 50% in two weeks,then destroyed a big part of my account with a mistype. :mad:

For now Cable short in 1.5520 since yesterday with tp of 1.5305,will be adding and scaling out from it at swing fulfillment and retraces respectively. At 1.5305 a buy limit waiting, hopefully the weekly low in my opinion(ws1,trinity low,a good daily support,swing projection,and even an ote from the daily chart,and also usdx seems to confirm)Target is 1.5700 ish(weekly high hopefully),will add at retracement and scale out.Hopefully it'll play out.With a lot of high importance news,the volatility is provided,so i'm expecting to reach the weekly low today.


GLGT ;)
 

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Piper

Guest
Well today my targets of the weekly low haven't yet reached(1.3150ísh on fib,15300ísh on cable),i guess tomorrow then,since no signs of reversal yet.

My 1.5000 sell limit for cable triggered and flew down so fast to tp that didn't even manged to scale out,bummer. 8)

Overall today i did OK.I'm still having some issues of jumping the gun a bit early,and not totally sticking to my targets.Slowly starting to deal with the issues of missing out,and the part of second guessing myself about my targets.
It seems like i'm getting a bit better almost everyday,and learning a lot of new,and the old is sinking in better.
I'm feeling like in the beginning of a great lifelong journey to my freedom and dreams.
Now the only thing that's standing in my way to that,is myself.I guess i'll have to deal with that somehow.. :))

Some S/R and fib analysis for possible LO setups with the cable(also a weekly trinity sell lvl a bit below and MR1), and fiber(weekly trinity sell,and dynamic s/r,less solid,but more relaxed option since smart money not doing crazy fluctuations like in the cable lately).
Critics welcome.I'm always looking for learning something new.Kinda hard to bias me,but i'm still considering everything,so speak up freely. :)

Warning!!Warning!!
Pls don't use these setups,since i'm a noob trader,and rookie analyst,and right now in my opinion these still against the major flow.If you choose to do so..Well that's your responsibility.

The color code: Red S/R line is monthly,Yellow is weekly,Blue is the daily.The Dynamic S/R (the trendlines) Darkpale grey is high importance daily or 4h.Blue is 4hr the Pink is 1hr.

GLGT :)
Cheers,
Piper
 

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Piper

Guest
it won't let me edit since the time limit has passed.. :eek: These are the missing parts of the 2nd paragraph:

My 1.5000 sell limit for cable triggered and flew down so fast to tp that didn't even manged to scale out,bummer +50. 8)but on the other hand today spike knocked out 2 of my ongoing trades,since i followed them with too aggressive S/L's.
Entered a fiber short at 1.3310 with tp of 1.3250.Of course i scaled out too soon,and closed the trade altogether at 1.3270,instead of waiting a bit more,or to try to reach the weekly low target.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
it won't let me edit since the time limit has passed.. :eek: These are the missing parts of the 2nd paragraph:
Yup. There's a 30 minute window to edit posts, then it's etched in rock. The idea is to let you fix problems but not rewrite history (like change calls and such.)

The first post in a thread is always available to modify though.

http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,82.msg709.html#new

I might increase the window to 60 minutes if enough people feel that would be better.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Also, I like how you're setting your limit orders and letting price do it's thing. Don't worry about the ones that get away or move too quickly, keep your focus on the right prices and don't be hasty. :)
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
It seems like i'm getting a bit better almost everyday,and learning a lot of new,and the old is sinking in better.
I'm feeling like in the beginning of a great lifelong journey to my freedom and dreams.
Now the only thing that's standing in my way to that,is myself.I guess i'll have to deal with that somehow.. :))
I firmly believe the last frontier for trading performance is internal for most people.

You can take a simple system, with hard rules, and teach it to different people in the same way.. yet still get different results.

We all treat risk differently, we break down rewards differently, and we have different emotional associations with market .. not to mention how common it is to feel the urge to add out own spin to things even when we lack the hard evidence (backtesting) to prove such changes are even required.

Know thyself.
 
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Piper

Guest
Ok,at least i didn't ashamed myself,since the setups worked out for some profit. :))


Defianatly,know thyself.
I'm starting to get a bit annoyed.Seems like after the great drawdown period,i can't stop bleeding money.What's even more annoying,that i'm actually finding great,and pretty accurate setups,not always right but mostly,even when its bad,still would finish with minor profit or BE at least. But i'm starting to have a bit of self trust issues,moving setups a bit farther or closer.Then it gets triggered,and the loss is worse,or it wont get triggered and then i'm cursing for usually at 50+ pips setups that i screwed by 5 pips.Whats worse,than my before the day analysis usually correct,but as new info coming in,i'm starting a bit to second guess myself and making stupid stuff.When i made the counts with my original setups from monday till now,i should be up around 35% this week.Reality:big drawdown.
The good part is that when i'm thinking about,i exactly know my problems.
So next week I'm spectating,not speculating.At least for a week,if more time needed,well then i'll chill a bit more.Paper trade at max.Time to relax,and earn my trust back in myself. :))
Any suggestions about these issues would be very welcomed.
Have a nice weekend
GLGT
 

Tansen

Well-Known Member
Well the market week prior to this week and even up to now is highly consolidated, unless your on the gbp/usd but for the most part the EUR/USD was the weakest anyway.

It's a hard week because its mainly a search and destroy week and realistically this rise now in the EUR is just the catch up but, if you see consolidation and then an aggressive move check out the greater market structure on a daily > 4hr > 1hr see how they compare. A lot of the times if you see aggressive days like today you should get an idea of the direction to come and/or when to trade and when not because if the greater structure isn't absolute there's no reason you should be taking positions. Of course this is easy to say in hindsight but realistically I was always long not on the EUR but more so for the GBP for the sole reason if you looked at monday and compared the moves you'd see the EUR/USD edging lower where as the GBP/USD edging higher and my analysis pointed at bull so naturally you stick to the one edging higher if your a bull for the day and shorting the EUR/USD short term if your a bear for the day.
 
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Piper

Guest
Im not blaming you in hindsight 4 sure. These were very catchable setups. The problem is that i'm getting spooked out too easily. I got the turning point exactly via usdx..And both fib and cab reached a supp lvl,but kinda frozed.. (And closed a fib short from 1.3300 at 1.3290 before the news. With the cable at least caught the slide down part) I lack the execution more :( .Altough the analysis could be better too.. Tnx for the insight. Very good advice indeed :)
 

TheInnerCircleTrader

Well-Known Member
Piper said:
These were very catchable setups. The problem is that i'm getting spooked out too easily.

Hey Piper! ;)


Firstly, good for you for trying to journal your development and actions. It takes a different level of Trader to be organized and responsible. Journaling assists in that endeavor.

Secondly, the notion of "spooking" is directly related to the money. Your fear, albeit warranted, is controlled by the leverage you employ. If you are not 100% confident in the approach, tools, methods or most importantly yourself... dramatically gear down your Trade Leverage. Employing a small Risk model while learning is very crucial in removing the fog... Fear and natural anxiety brings.

Try trading with .25% of your total equity. That is right... 1/4 of 1% at Risk. You are not trying to win lottery winnings as you learn to Trade consistently. You are learning to Trade consistently while winning more conceptually and losing less as you gain confidence.

It sounds counterproductive and that's precisely why 99% won't do it and the results speak for themselves. Remove the concern for the money and the process becomes more intellectual and mostly fun. The bonus comes from earning a living off the efforts in time.

What is the expression... "find a career you love doing and you'll never work a day in your life."

Keep plugging away...

________________
GLGT 8)
 
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Piper

Guest
InnerCircleTrader said:
Hey Piper! ;)


Firstly, good for you for trying to journal your development and actions. It takes a different level of Trader to be organized and responsible. Journaling assists in that endeavor.

Secondly, the notion of "spooking" is directly related to the money. Your fear, albeit warranted, is controlled by the leverage you employ. If you are not 100% confident in the approach, tools, methods or most importantly yourself... dramatically gear down your Trade Leverage. Employing a small Risk model while learning is very crucial in removing the fog... Fear and natural anxiety brings.

Try trading with .25% of your total equity. That is right... 1/4 of 1% at Risk. You are not trying to win lottery winnings as you learn to Trade consistently. You are learning to Trade consistently while winning more conceptually and losing less as you gain confidence.

It sounds counterproductive and that's precisely why 99% won't do it and the results speak for themselves. Remove the concern for the money and the process becomes more intellectual and mostly fun. The bonus comes from earning a living off the efforts in time..
It's making great sense.I've fallen to the greed trap.It went too well..Then started to think what if i'll just leverage a bit more..And darn..Well as usually happens,the devil won.Nevertheless lesson learned.Very roughly.Time for a big and steady comeback.And it will happen properly I just know it.No matter what. :)
Since I started to trade micro's,I'm starting to feel that calm confidence in my setups again.And since i've started to deal more with personal psychology,I'm actually not feeling the greed or the need to really go above 1% risk.It'll take a bit more time..So what?

What is the expression... "find a career you love doing and you'll never work a day in your life."

Keep plugging away...
Exactly..It took me so long to finally understand to what profession i'm feeling inspiration,innovation and really connected in general.I'll plug it as long as it takes. :))
Thanks for the kind words and the great advice.

Cheers,
Piper
 
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Piper

Guest
7/9/13

Hey guys!I took some time off from trading to sort some stuff out with my self,with my broker and trading.
Started to review two weeks ago all the stuff that i learned, rechecked notes.And discovered that i had some serious faults,and been doing the contrary of what i'm supposed to do at some stuff,and also got into some very nasty trading habits.

Reviewed my trading plan(what was good and still good)and finally got the conclusion that maybe every serious trader do got a point with them taking notes of ideas,thoughts and journaling every trade with the reasons they took,and got decision trees for their possible scenarios,so they won't have to act from fear ,gut feelings or reactions.
So sited down,made some serious changes in my execution.Made a decision tree with some back-testing,for pinpoint entries what's compliments my plan nicely.

Revoked most of my account from my current broker,and got a commission based account with a reputable ECN/STP broker,so now I'm getting raw ECN feeds of 0.2-0.0 spreads(1.3 pips commission for a trade).
And also got a MYFX license from my new broker as a welcoming present,so with its trade manager simply not going to be any need for me to do anything except analysis and entering limit orders,and my preferred scale out option.Also not going to be more jumping on the gun because of the spread of 3-4 points the price is dancing around my entry then missing it by a fraction of a pip. :mad:
With my tiny account back to 2.9k now basically got everything i need to have consistency and hopefully explosive profitability. ::)

Also since now I'm very serious about my daily routine on the days that I'll hunt for setups,a detailed written analysis with pictures will be done.And since i got no better place,it'll be submitted here. :)

Cheers,
Piper
GLGT
 
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Piper

Guest
8.9.13


Before the week analysis and game plan:

Uncle Sam

The USDX reached a HTF resistance at 82.80 level and broke down with the NFP. This was also a banking level and an OTE from the daily charts and an anticipated stop run. The 4hr market flow now changed to bearish.
In the COT report the commercials started to reverse longs (-1138) to shorts (+1218). A net change of overall -2.3k contracts to an overall bearish stance (-20k).I classify the COT as bearish.
The bond yields (2,5,10,30) been going straight up, and then reversed. The 30 yr t-note yield diverged and failed to post a higher high.
Also bearish.
No premiums present at this time, and OI is flat. The daily stochastic is reached overbought levels, and a bearish divergence from the recent high of 7/8 to nowadays.
Seasonal tendencies also pointing for the dollar to trade softer in the near future.

Conclusion:
It's going down baby.

Expectancy:
The dx is tanking right now a bit below the 82.20 level, what's also a weekly support level. I'm expecting it either to bounce to the 82.50 resistance level(daily resistance level and a bank level) ,what would be a nice 4hr OTE fractal(more likely), or a turtle soup setup at 82.80-90(less likely ) .

Contingency:
a) if the dx will fall out of bed immediately and will breach the 82 level without stopping, then will need to reevaluate about when to join.
If the dollar would breach the 83 fig(unlikely), in my opinion it will reach for the 83.50-80 levels(my original target from a month ago) and then probably will head down.



Queen and Country

The recently bullish pound is dancing around the weekly support level of 1.56 . The 4hr market flow is bullish and the daily chart also.
The COT data for the pair is suggesting overall bullishness. The commercial traders increased their long positions(11k) and also added a bit of short contracts(5k) overall a 6.8k positive change in contracts to the long side, with an overall long position(+48k).Overall bullish.
The recent bullishness seems to suggest that the correlation with the euro has been nearly fixed (HTF daily 3yr period smt).
The daily stochastic at mid levels a bit tipped to the positive side, also strong bullish divergence present between the low of 23/7 to the low of 2/9.Open interest is flat. And a premium is present at the September contract.
Seasonals also pointing for an up move .

Conclusion:
The pound is showing underlying power and willingness to go higher. With the soft USDX the conclusion is pretty obvious for a bull pound.

Expectancy: The pound bounced down from the 1.5680 daily resistance level (also a stop raid, and banking level) optimally it would retrace to the 1.56 full figure level, what's also a weekly support level and lot of pivot and trinity confluence, plus an ote entry from the last fractal.

Strategy: Will have a limit buy at 1.56 level with 2% risk and 30 pip stoploss. Will add on retracements and scale out according to my plan. Need to be with an open eye on the 1.575 monthly resistance level where I'm expecting a stop raid, and its also a yearly 0.79 fib level. Will have a resting hedge order according to the open trade size with 30 pip stoploss, or a 2% risk hedge trade with tp of around 1.565 and aggressive 40 pip traling stop or manual stop adjusting.

Contingency: If the pound will decide to break down I will be looking for longs at the 1.55 level (daily ote with strong s/r). This scenario only likely in my opinion if the DX will reach for 83.50.




The Union

The euro been stalling since the 1.345 resistance level,and been showing weakness.
The COT data is showing rapid increase of longs(20K) and lessening of shorts(-6k) an overall increase of 26k contracts to the long side, although commercials still on the short side by a bit. Reversal is pretty close in my opinion, although not imminent.
The daily stochastic is touching the oversold level. There is also a strong bullish divergence from 8/7 to nowadays.The O/I is flat and no premiums present. Seasonals also pointing at a bullish scenario.

Conclusion:
Overall bullish, but not yet. I think the euro near a turning point.

Expectancy: Reversal likely to happen around the 1.3 full figure, a strong support level and a daily OTE.

Strategy:
Will hold the current short and add to that until the 1.3 level will be reached, or the market flow on 4hr will change to bullish. Will add on retracements and scale out respectively.
A buy of 2% waiting at the 1.298 level, with 30 pip stoploss. If the Trade will stop out, then I'll reassess the expected low.

Contingecy:
If the 1.295 level breached, I will need to reassess the market. Then the low should be expected in my opinion around the 1.288-5 level. This scenario only likely I think, if the dollar will breach the 83 figure.

Thats all for now, when i'll get home i'll also post some charts along.
And critics welcome of course :)

Cheers,
Piper
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Piper said:
8.9.13


Before the week analysis and game plan:

Uncle Sam

The USDX reached a HTF resistance at 82.80 level and broke down with the NFP. This was also a banking level and an OTE from the daily charts and an anticipated stop run. The 4hr market flow now changed to bearish.
In the COT report the commercials started to reverse longs (-1138) to shorts (+1218). A net change of overall -2.3k contracts to an overall bearish stance (-20k).I classify the COT as bearish.
The bond yields (2,5,10,30) been going straight up, and then reversed. The 30 yr t-note yield diverged and failed to post a higher high.
Also bearish.
No premiums present at this time, and OI is flat. The daily stochastic is reached overbought levels, and a bearish divergence from the recent high of 7/8 to nowadays.
Seasonal tendencies also pointing for the dollar to trade softer in the near future.

Conclusion:
It's going down baby.

Expectancy:
The dx is tanking right now a bit below the 82.20 level, what's also a weekly support level. I'm expecting it either to bounce to the 82.50 resistance level(daily resistance level and a bank level) ,what would be a nice 4hr OTE fractal(more likely), or a turtle soup setup at 82.80-90(less likely ) .

Contingency:
a) if the dx will fall out of bed immediately and will breach the 82 level without stopping, then will need to reevaluate about when to join.
If the dollar would breach the 83 fig(unlikely), in my opinion it will reach for the 83.50-80 levels(my original target from a month ago) and then probably will head down.



Queen and Country

The recently bullish pound is dancing around the weekly support level of 1.56 . The 4hr market flow is bullish and the daily chart also.
The COT data for the pair is suggesting overall bullishness. The commercial traders increased their long positions(11k) and also added a bit of short contracts(5k) overall a 6.8k positive change in contracts to the long side, with an overall long position(+48k).Overall bullish.
The recent bullishness seems to suggest that the correlation with the euro has been nearly fixed (HTF daily 3yr period smt).
The daily stochastic at mid levels a bit tipped to the positive side, also strong bullish divergence present between the low of 23/7 to the low of 2/9.Open interest is flat. And a premium is present at the September contract.
Seasonals also pointing for an up move .

Conclusion:
The pound is showing underlying power and willingness to go higher. With the soft USDX the conclusion is pretty obvious for a bull pound.

Expectancy: The pound bounced down from the 1.5680 daily resistance level (also a stop raid, and banking level) optimally it would retrace to the 1.56 full figure level, what's also a weekly support level and lot of pivot and trinity confluence, plus an ote entry from the last fractal.

Strategy: Will have a limit buy at 1.56 level with 2% risk and 30 pip stoploss. Will add on retracements and scale out according to my plan. Need to be with an open eye on the 1.575 monthly resistance level where I'm expecting a stop raid, and its also a yearly 0.79 fib level. Will have a resting hedge order according to the open trade size with 30 pip stoploss, or a 2% risk hedge trade with tp of around 1.565 and aggressive 40 pip traling stop or manual stop adjusting.

Contingency: If the pound will decide to break down I will be looking for longs at the 1.55 level (daily ote with strong s/r). This scenario only likely in my opinion if the DX will reach for 83.50.




The Union

The euro been stalling since the 1.345 resistance level,and been showing weakness.
The COT data is showing rapid increase of longs(20K) and lessening of shorts(-6k) an overall increase of 26k contracts to the long side, although commercials still on the short side by a bit. Reversal is pretty close in my opinion, although not imminent.
The daily stochastic is touching the oversold level. There is also a strong bullish divergence from 8/7 to nowadays.The O/I is flat and no premiums present. Seasonals also pointing at a bullish scenario.

Conclusion:
Overall bullish, but not yet. I think the euro near a turning point.

Expectancy: Reversal likely to happen around the 1.3 full figure, a strong support level and a daily OTE.

Strategy:
Will hold the current short and add to that until the 1.3 level will be reached, or the market flow on 4hr will change to bullish. Will add on retracements and scale out respectively.
A buy of 2% waiting at the 1.298 level, with 30 pip stoploss. If the Trade will stop out, then I'll reassess the expected low.

Contingecy:
If the 1.295 level breached, I will need to reassess the market. Then the low should be expected in my opinion around the 1.288-5 level. This scenario only likely I think, if the dollar will breach the 83 figure.

Thats all for now, when i'll get home i'll also post some charts along.
And critics welcome of course :)

Cheers,
Piper
On DX:

I agree in general, as that's a decent explanation, but only on the basis that you've set a 'hard level' where you know you're wrong (if we break up from here,) and thus have a limit to your downside with a pretty open upside to take in. However, that doesn't mean I'd suggest jumping in right now. I'd let price show it's hand then take a punt with the momentum in your favor first.

Plus, we have to see what it does during the NYC open to get a good feel for it.. So once the price moves pick up closer to Monday's NYC session, focus on trading what you see at that moment, not the expectation you have of it just going down. If it confirms, then you'd have reason to hit it hard, if not, you gotta be able to walk away without being stuck on "look for any decent short entry" mode.

--

About the Pound and Euro trades: You have your analysis, stick to it, or adjust if the market clearly shows a change at the the open..

Referencing the COT is nice, but if you're going to base a bias on a trend change within COT numbers, when that trend change proves to be just noise (ie, the net number isn't in line with your first assessment) then that should nullify your trade. If the reason you're in a trade vanishes, then holding onto a position becomes a 'hope' trade.

I'm not saying that's your main reason for having a directional bias, but I'm pointing out that if you let it affect the reason you got into a trade then it needs to be equally weighted on when you get out. Working with structural / market makeup / fundamental numbers like this requires it...

--

Side thought, ever consider legging into a trade with half your risk up front, then the other half as the trade proves to be working for you? It does soften the upside a tad, but when you're wrong right from the get go you don't take as much of a beating. This is more money management and position sizing than anything else, but I figured I'd ask...
 
P

Piper

Guest
1st of all thanks for taking your time with your opinion.It's much appreciated.

Jack said:
On DX:

Side thought, ever consider legging into a trade with half your risk up front, then the other half as the trade proves to be working for you? It does soften the upside a tad, but when you're wrong right from the get go you don't take as much of a beating. This is more money management and position sizing than anything else, but I figured I'd ask...

That's a sound idea !This will cut the losses by 50%,and maybe lower the profits by 10% with the deep fib entries.Overall that's a very small price to pay to avoid half of my losses.Added to my trading plan and will utilize it from now!
Thank you Master Sensei 8)

The fiber setup nuked for -10 pips and about -0.2 % luckily with the opening gap my trade manager scaled out and moved the s/l. Really would have waited lol don't like the idea of weekend trades,the market triggered my limit on the NFP.
 
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Piper

Guest
10.09.2013

I found this morning a short fiber setup, what I didn’t took since I’ve decided to wait for more confirmation because of the recently bull environment.


The fiber shows a bit more strength against the usdx, since the highs are more significant than the lows, but the SMT still pointing that this is the weaker pair even tough yesterday’s jump up, and it’s not making higher highs compared to the cable. It’s the preferred setup, since the usdx found support on the 81.70 resistance level what’s also WS2.Consolidated,on the 1 hr chart the market flow turned to bullish and on the 4hr it haven’t delivered a lower low. Its also penetrated the monthly pivot.

I think we’re now in the retracement before the fall, what I expected yesterday(i'm not that locked on it lol it just seems so). In my assumption it should go up to about 82.20 weekly resistance level, there I will start to search for confirmation about the turning.

Anyways back to today.The setup retrace again to an OTE in the NY session after it made a lower low.

The trade been put on with 0.75% risk(since its against the major tide), a bit above the 62 ote level,with 25 pip s/l and target of 1.315.
The original entry target was the sweet spot, jumped the gun a bit early and made manual entry,4-5 pips less profit. The price also pierced a bit trough the 79 fib level, overall a 6 pip difference if I would waited with the limit at the 79 level no biggie, but over time it will add up significantly and it’s kind of undisciplined . Especially funny, since I waited about 8 hours for this setup to trigger.Seems like i still have fear of missing out. :eek:(maybe related to this morning miss of 40+ pips profit,but can't get every trade lol)
Need to add a column in my technical journal, to make comparisons and statistics about the wasted pip count by early entries, also setups that wouldn’t be triggered and about the losses that would be less, to get an overall statistical picture of what fib level to utilize.
The trade seems to respect the fact that it should be going down and its already at +5.MYFX triple tap scale out profile applied. The trades 25 pip S/L is above an STH what been formed in the hourly chart and also the monthly pivot a monthly trinity and weekly MR1 level and also above daily MR1.With this kind of resistance there’s no reason whatsoever to even think about moving my S/L by a pip.

I'm now also understanding that doing this journalism process before i take a trade makes me think about it much more and the reasons why i took it,and also staying confident about it(specially the not posted tech part what i'm filling before the trade with the raw data).Untill it'll stop out :p. Or not.Who knows lol

Edit: And also an STH formed on the 4hr boooyah!!
Edit 2: at asian the sth been pierced a bit. Would qualify as a turtle soup setup,so its still on..
And still seems like the usdx will go higher. Anyways this morning since the sth been pierced removed 50% of the trade at +7 pips. Overall risk exposure reduced to about
0.2%
 

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