Mix the fundies with the techs.


Peterma

Well-Known Member
Ok, found the images, I was sure yesterday that there was going to be a false signal on the 10yr, had hoped to mention something that I've noticed over this past few years, but was not to be, maybe next week.

Thursday I could see a buy setup, then later price dropped - a false signal for sure.

But remember I said about the difference between TA in the bonds, DB's and DT's ( Nov22 post).

Friday the DB occurred:
 

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jack

Administrator
Staff member
So in the last example, how do you manage risk here? At what point do you say "I'm wrong, time to wrap this up"?
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
It's a sentiment catcher, so in itself it there are no rules, I think of it as a spoof catcher, meant to show when price is being manipulated to get a better price.

Title of thread is relevant. Take yesterday, Eur/Gbp was set up from Friday (posted on BP a heads up on that) - meeting UK/EU and Monday morning all was set to go, the reports were positive, the draft already written, Irish PM scheduled to give speech outside parliament.

Eur/Gpb happily went down to previous low as was expected. Good chance that many guys saw the reports and jumped on board after the fall, there was plenty of time.

But there were 'signals' that all was not well, for example the press in Dublin were told the speech would be inside, not outside as planned - that clearly meant a hitch, the planned local time was 2.30pm (still daylight), going inside meant there must be a delay, press cameras like some light.

The spoof catcher was signaling on EURX, USDX and US10yr whilst everyone was waiting - first chart - red is Eurx (see the difference re yellow Usdx), second is US10yr - both 5 mins.

The TA and the FA both indicating not to chase price down imo.
 

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Peterma

Well-Known Member
And to bring the fundies/TA to a close - I posted on BP last night a second heads up that a UK/EU deal was in the bag, announcement to be made this morning before European market open.
I mentioned that the market was aware and GBP price had already started to react, also the likelihood of buy rumour etc.

The TA confirmed the post by announcement time this morning:

Red is German 10yr, see again the difference in the curve, a repeat of post above.

Second chart is the same thing only in GMT with WS on the USDX this time, with the Asian delineated - see the "ICT Judas swing" - thought I'd mention that for fun :)
 

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Peterma

Well-Known Member
Almost forgot to mention, NFP yesterday, usually a gamble, but wonder does the spoof catcher give any clue in the lead up to the release.

Time frame 15min usually best when waiting for numbers, first chart WS on USDX , just before the numbers - here I would expect a clear signal.

Second chart WS on DE10 (red) and US10yr (yellow) - here I would expect the US10yr to take the lead (reverse of the last 2 posts).

The numbers were USD positive, so they bought the rumour and sold the fact - I wonder how many bought USD on release - and got spoofed, perhaps why FA gets a bad name.
 

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Peterma

Well-Known Member
One final chart - as a wrap up for yesterday, it was perhaps a unique coming together of Euro and Usd FA in one day.

Last 2 posts show buy/sell rumour/fact - what spoofing is all about, how to get guys wrong side.

There is a common theme in the 4 charts posted for yesterday - they all indicate Euro buying Europe wake up time.

EURX for yesterday on GMT - up arrow is 09.00am gmt
 

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Peterma

Well-Known Member
Was watching this live earlier today, chart is the US10yr with WS on 2yr - time was just at US market open.

Big FA day for US, so Bonds up, Gold up, USD down.....the big push up early was the signal, WS was the heads up.
 

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