Mix the fundies with the techs.

[Peterma]

I like Gears, Jack does a good job - Russian bot deleted toute de suite

So decided to start a new thread, mostly will be filled with rubbish, but who cares.

Just had a quick glance at twitter, lots of talk about calling cable up today, didn't really follow the charts or the detail, looks complicated.

They bought bonds, Jpy, gold, and Euro - and sold the dollar - risk off.

Fibre outshone cable - maybe thinking ahead on Gbp for Thursday and selling fundies.

Anyways - how to TA all that.

Dbl bottom on yesterday's low:

 

[Peterma]

So hr1 gave a dbl bottom, could m15 give any clue to the spike down?

Complete hindsight nonsense.

 

[Peterma]

Cannot figure how to post beyond the image on one post, maybe some help on that.

Anyways, what about the risk, any notion of direction ?

Big talk atm on the 2yr and 10yr - so maybe check the 10yr, based on the 2yr:

Today hr1:

 

[jack]

Cannot figure how to post beyond the image on one post, maybe some help on that.

Click "upload a file" for each image you want to upload. You can click it multiple times in a row if you'd like.

 

[jack]

Actually, you can select multiple files at once in the file selection dialog when you click the "upload a file" button. No need click upload multiple times.

 

[Peterma]

Aye, but what about commenting in between images, trying to figure that.

The 10yr signal was good today, but what about the spike up?

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   US10YRH1.jpg

Just uploaded the hr1 for today (above) , trying to put this sentence below that chart.
The 15min gives the signal in plenty time (below):

Ok here goes.

 

[Peterma]

Nope, that didn't come out so good.

 

[Peterma]

So last night's hr1 spike signal was good today US10yr.

The only other thing of note was that price at time that I captured the image was by coincidence the high 125.22 which looks nice on a hr4.

What about tomorrow? - nothing to report no divergence.

 

[Peterma]

I dislike this hindsight stuff but have to start somewhere, today - the 10yr just stayed within range, no signal, no divergence, no action.

It's always a case of is this break of yesterdays low/high for real or a fakeout, is the re-test of a low/high going to be a DB or DT etc etc blah

So what about cable or fibre today?

EurUsd stayed within Asian range, tried to spike below, but was a fake as per 15min:
(btw see the half hearted attempt to break the Asian high early European - thin line)

Cable - same story - break of Asian high fake, break of Asian low fake - back to the centre.

 

[jack]

Solid examples. What's the lowest timeframe you've used this approach on?

 

[Peterma]

Usually 15min, although useful on 5 min also.

Note the second rise, no divergence, so risk factor agreeing with price, the divergence in the first is imo reflecting a half hearted attempt at a further rise:

First chart WS is on US10yr - Oanda (risk) and second chart Forex Ltd, on USDX - interesting that both give same heads up on the first rise, the second rise and it's possible to see the divergence on the prior high, but also visible 5th , 4th and 3rd bar from close .

 

[Th3Lucky1]

Looks interesting. What are you using to determine divergence?

 

[Peterma]

It's old fashioned oscillation divergence, but with a twist - the oscillation is always either on USDX and US10yr if cable or fibre or US2yr if the 10yr.

Example earlier today US10yr was signaling sell mode via 2yr - the timing was relevant because the level being 'reached for' was last week's high - the signals seem more effective at such times.
Was watching this one live, the immediate thought at the vert line was that willspread will take a lot of effort to get back up.

That price level was important, Friday's high - there was some attempt to go back up and make it support, but WS was still signaling sell (arrow).

 

[Peterma]

The TA seems to be of importance on the bonds, opening of European and US sessions on FX likewise:

Today on EurUsd - the Asian printed a double or triple bottom, attempt to go lower, perhaps a break to the downside in the making -

WS on USDX and 10yr both suggesting not:

 

[Peterma]

Btw, a 'live' example - notice at the end of the EurUsd chart, likely a push down soon on 1720 -1700, then I'll look to see if divergence especially tomorrow morning UK.

(The German news could unsurp the TA in this case)

 

[Peterma]

Ok, last example

Some time ago I mentioned the TA 'friendly' nature of US bonds - some guys had a good laugh at that one - anyways DT's and DB's are where the divergence signals best on bonds.

Yesterday the indicator on the 2yr was rising whilst the 10yr price was meandering lower:

Yesterday US10yr:

 

[Peterma]

Btw, a 'live' example - notice at the end of the EurUsd chart, likely a push down soon on 1720 -1700, then I'll look to see if divergence especially tomorrow morning UK.

(The German news could unsurp the TA in this case)

I chose that live example deliberately, the better examples are always right side - the fundies had the potential to push Euro down, the next day was key, any sign of divergence was a sign that the bots were buying whilst spoofing price down, confirming what I could see at the tail end of the chart posted.

The push down went to 1710 next day, and the divergence increased, a spoof down.

This is how it played out:

 

[Peterma]

Btw, the above is on the US10yr, same divergence was on the USDX Monday evening, gave me the confidence to post.
The same divergences on both was there on Tuesday morning UK time

 

[Peterma]

One other wee thing - the time frame aspect.

Supposing I wasn't just so sure about the German news impact, the bots are most active around session opens, the UK bots gave their signal, but maybe wait for the US.

Around this time the US10yr seems to play it's role better, so check out the 15min the next day, first is USDX (wrongly named 5min)

 

[Peterma]

Another week gone - anything worthy of note in hindsight?

I remember ICT talk about the high or low of the week being printed on Tuesdays, last post was about a spoof down on Tuesday, so had a quick look at Rod's link to his video for this week.

ICT points out how 'retail' could see a bull flag, and a breakout on Tue, but it was a fakeout, or a 'turtle soup', in other words it was a 'spoof'.
(maybe he says more, just had a quick look)

Anyways, the problem, how to know? It looks easy waiting for price to come back up to the underside next day, but where is the confirmation?

I use this method as a spoof catcher, had intended to show a wrong signal on 10yr and mention a little about that but price reversed, will post later on that.