Is the JPY being re-priced by the BOJ today (according to ICT)?


Peterma

Well-Known Member
Chrisrocs said:
Why inexplicable? The setup is nastily obvious on my chart,
Hmmm... maybe inexplicable to the many not so smart traders who went long on the back of the rise on Eur/Usd.

Not sure what fundies had to do with the move down other than the fact that all the ETF volumes were on the floor, being a Friday, low volume, manipulation, profts exits blah blah

Now maybe a pic of the 'obvious setup', if it's macd zl then no need, already have seen that.
 

Chrisrocs

Well-Known Member
Peterma said:
Now maybe a pic of the 'obvious setup', if it's macd zl then no need, already have seen that.
Sure, it's pretty simple really. I like to keep things simple and consistent. Once things get convoluted and subjective, it's a one-way path to mediocre/crappy-trader's ville.

I started things off with a little intermarket analysis of course. What do we look for when trying to decide on our direction in the Euro? Mexican peso futures of course...

What stands out to you in this chart right off the bat?



Hard right edge... sombrero pattern in MESASineWave... price stalls on the long side.. What does this mean?

The mexicans are unloading their longs and preparing to head short.. they've just celebrated Día de la Independencia, and the tequila and corona is still taking its effect, but they're quickly sobering up to reality. The result? For that, we need to take a look at a more "close to home" market..

What did we learn from ICT? If mexican peso futures are bearish.....? That's right, we can expect a sympathetic decline in Lean Hog futures... but wait a second, what's this?



A bit of SMT divergence to tip us off... We expect lower highs in HE, instead we get a brick wall, combined with a fake bull wedge to fool all the breakout traders and typical retail traders. What's happening here? ;)

So already we can see that something is going on behind the scenes that the typical retail trader doesn't even remotely suspect. Carrying on...

For the educated trader, lean hog is prepped to drop.. and the "smart money" already knows this, and is positioning themselves in other markets accordingly. This means pork prices in the US are naturally going to drop as well, resulting in barbecues everywhere.. What does this mean for our European neighbors?

Being that Europe is now 90% Muslim, or somewhere around there, we can expect some resentment and anger in response to the rally in pork consumption in America.... Unrest all across Europe results in a weakened economy and thus a weaker currency, simple...

We're not done yet though, because as we know, trading is all about analyzing the living crap out of stuff instead of actually trading it, right? This way we can stack up "confluences" that are each worth 5% winrate, so the more you have... the better your odds...

Getting to the actual Fiber entry...

Using a little ICT magic, and some derivatives, we get confluence of various fib retracements...



H4 Fib



H1 Fib with special ICT "Blessed" fib confluence as well...

Pretty easy... 8)

Edit: Noticed this after the fact, we hit the bearish extreme of the Bullish Boomerang Channel... Extra confluence... 8)

 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Chrisrocs said:
Sure, it's pretty simple really. I like to keep things simple and consistent. Once things get convoluted and subjective, it's a one-way path to mediocre/crappy-trader's ville.
Ou est c'est ville, ici? :)
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Lol, just saw this on TV, thought of you guys - the market is on the move, you need to keep up, us old timers might sound slow, but when it comes to money...we're driving.
 

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Peterma

Well-Known Member
Chrisrocs said:
Being that Europe is now 90% Muslim, or somewhere around there, we can expect some resentment and anger in response to the rally in pork consumption in America....
You see, this is where we crinklies are ahead of the game, you guys really need to catch up.

http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-us-accept-85-000-refugees-2016-100-160512384.html
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
ROFL Fib Confluences = Amateur Hour.

For less losing trades use Fibs confluences to four plus decimal places.

Remember, these numbers are 'magic numbers of the Universe', so the more accuracy (via decimal places) the less losing trades you will make.
 

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