Is the JPY being re-priced by the BOJ today (according to ICT)?

PacnyTuH0

Member
I remember one of the recent ICT videos where he explained how the GBP is being re-priced by the central bank. That the move was not caused by heavy buying, but rather repricing.

I wonder if today's JPY move is repricing as well. I don't think there was too much desire to sell USDJPY (for example) at 199.50 suddenly. Obviously banks would not sell on a down move, right?

Anyone with more experience that can share their opinion? I would really appreciate if Michael himself, provides an explanation about this situation and whether I'm on the right track.

Thanks
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
In times of risk aversion, especially when there is a sense of panic, Yen will rise.

Whether funds actually flow into Yen is often argued about, but the bottom line is it appreciates like it did today.

The IMF did a study back in 2013 entitled: "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis"

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13228.pdf
 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
ignore the fundamental crap

make sense of what's in front of you (charts), not what you think "might" be happening, or why

the question is: how do (did) you trade it?
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Lol, went short Eur/Jpy (seldom trade Jpy at the best of times), long Eur/Usd .

All trades down to the fundamental crap - stops? what stops, fundamental crap doesn't need stops :)

Charts?, what charts? ....crap doesn't need charts :) just hit the button is all that crap needs :)
 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
yet and all, im still waiting for someone to answer PacnyTuH0's question... (spoiler alert: no one on here can/will)

he can take Peterma's advice and read some bullshit that will not even remotely help his trading, or, he can take my advice. ignore all the fundamental crap (simplify) in an effort to help him find his edge...

as you were...
 

PacnyTuH0

Member
Thanks,

I never paid attention to the fundamental crap anyways. I know it's not important.

I was just curious whether that move was caused by repricing or not. Obviously a lot of stops were triggered and price collapsed - another possible reason.

The same happened with AUD & NZD. What caught my attention was that the AUDNZD pair spiked from 1.10 above 1.14 and the very next minute closed almost where it was before the spike. I'm not sure that was because of the orders triggered around 1.14- it does seem like repricing straight away to me.
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
OK here is an answer, nothing about the CB.

Imagine if some guy said this to you late on Thursday past - specifically about JPY.

One thing to be mindful of in JPY, although it appears that there are funds going into gold there is a chance that some funds will make their way into JPY as well, especially if there is some profit taking in Gold.

This could affect Eur/Jpy next week - especially if the S&P continues down, which looks reasonably likely.



So if he took that piece of crap and traded it then he would be a little richer today.

What logic? well Gold is on a down trend on the daily and weekly, had reached former support on the daily, had a big push up for the last 2 days, was at the point of 'do not chase me with a buy' on it's chart.
Up to that point it was the darling of risk, against the trend there was buying as the China story unfolded.

So who would take over the mantle of risk aversion if not gold? - see, I've just enjoined TA with crap.

Old story - never discount anything in the market :)
 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
thanks for illustrating my point :)

you explained the "fundamentals" story with TA. The TA tells you all this anyway... ergo...... you tell me :-X

maybe once the planets align we'll have a trade that sets up for us...

ill check with the paid analysts first, they're usually on the money, right?
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Lol, touch of WD Gann, the planets def not aligned.

The key to my thinking on Thursday night's post was both TA and FA, combining the two. In hindsight Eur/Jpy made an obvious double top the next day, taking any stops just above the last high, but didn't even have the power to take those above the number (there for another day).

Now a wee interesting thing, you point out a fib, now here is one that I sometimes look at - I think in terms of measuring the attempt at a retrace of a big move using the fib tool, to measure the sentiment, the power.

But taking yesterday's spike down, I often ignore the 'spike' part, viewing it as a kind of aberration, I look for the session levels - Eur/Jpy, yesterday's Asian high, London Open high - start the fib there, close it at NY close / Asian low today.

The start point of the fib (138.97) is where the stops are sitting smiling and waving, the bottom point (137.28) is where price has settled for the night, looking up at the chanting stops (singing something like "cannot catch us")

Price does it's best during Asia, but fib 79 beats it - damn, it heads down to the daily PP at 137.53, deflated.

Then a gust of wind, the UK guys are on the scene, fresh from a contented night, they have a go for those singing stops, damn that fib, ICT and his ote in the way, back down we go - but to where?

100 extn of that fib thing :)

Kinda nutty but good for a day trade :)
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
Forgot to mention, when that gust of wind came the first point of interest was today's Asian high, get it past that and those signing stops are history - so to measure the wind's strength I suppose I would have to start the strength meter there and take it down to where those Uk guys are kicking off from (the pp).

Hmm.. bloody 79 fib stuck in the way again, then a series of lower highs as they puff and puff - 130 pips back down to that 100 extn, or is it MS1?
 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
outthislife said:
yiss. you get this too? ;D
boom!

fully diverged histo bars at the 6.9 exit straight into the reload long.

long exit/tp with trailing stops at the next 6.9 (we're still running - I want those stops at 80), whats not to like?

your charts are on the money
 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
continuing on a theme...

still think fundamentals matter?

think again...



poetry in motion... we're knocking on the 6.9 exit door now... (old screenshot)

take profits, reload, take profits, etc...

the yuppie follows suit....

 

jonnycab

Well-Known Member
last one, short 1.57 even Cable...

diverged histo bars at the wall, short at 86 retrace, all the way down...



splat

a few hundred ticks before NY joins the party...
 

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