outthislife
Well-Known Member
:thumbsup:
got a question - what do you do to filter a choppy/idle market?
got a question - what do you do to filter a choppy/idle market?
Is the JPY being re-priced by the BOJ today (according to ICT)?
- Thread starter PacnyTuH0
- Start date
Out - Jonny's filter will differ from mine, but I'd say both are equally effective.
Today I had intended to short USD, specifically via GBP, the reasons for a different place.
Anyways I had to wait for a filter, it arrived UK 1.30pm - made it impossible for me to go long GBP/USD as a consequence of that filter.
Today I had intended to short USD, specifically via GBP, the reasons for a different place.
Anyways I had to wait for a filter, it arrived UK 1.30pm - made it impossible for me to go long GBP/USD as a consequence of that filter.
OTL, there is no filter per se, i trade the setup every single time.
if the scenario unfolds, i'm on board. do not force a trade, wait for it.
you will never know if its a choppy or idle market until you're in it
keep in mind, sometimes the exit is 40 ticks away, sometimes its 150.
today it was a total of 150 ticks (fiber) with quite a few reloads along the way. nice total when you add it all up...
the gbp trainwreck was the performance of the day, so many times to reload those shorts, 220+ ticks...
every sucker trying to buy it is now in a world of hurt...
there is no time for shoulda, woulda, coulda, react to what is happening in front of you...
you'd have been up around 140 ticks by 13:30 with a fully loaded gbp short.
not to worry though New York provided 6 more opportunities on the cable after 13:30 to get short and join the party for another 100 ticks, right through to 18:00
c'est la vie
if the scenario unfolds, i'm on board. do not force a trade, wait for it.
you will never know if its a choppy or idle market until you're in it
keep in mind, sometimes the exit is 40 ticks away, sometimes its 150.
today it was a total of 150 ticks (fiber) with quite a few reloads along the way. nice total when you add it all up...
the gbp trainwreck was the performance of the day, so many times to reload those shorts, 220+ ticks...
every sucker trying to buy it is now in a world of hurt...
there is no time for shoulda, woulda, coulda, react to what is happening in front of you...
you'd have been up around 140 ticks by 13:30 with a fully loaded gbp short.
not to worry though New York provided 6 more opportunities on the cable after 13:30 to get short and join the party for another 100 ticks, right through to 18:00
c'est la vie
outthislife
Well-Known Member
thanks, yeah i get trends like this week has been pretty great. but range bound has kinda fucked w/ me so far. not a wipeout, by any means, but i'd like to either know to step away or what.. hold a bias based on prominent SR?
outthislife said:
its all about defining the trend.
if you see it consolidating, trade it as such.
consolidations are tricky but fun if you see them
the breakout idiots are constantly hammered until enough orders are scooped and life must move on (typically in the direction of the overall higher time frame trend).
having a bias is never good. the trend is what you're after, not bias.
bias is a terrible thing to have when trading...
react to what the charts are telling you, not what you want them to tell you...
react to the subtle nuances that are shown...
case in point, mr. fundamental
his bias was long GBP today...
missed out on an initial 140 ticks
took him until 13:30 to work out longs were off
did he get short? hmmmm
outthislife
Well-Known Member
jonnycab said:its all about defining the trend.
if you see it consolidating, trade it as such.
consolidations are tricky but fun if you see them
the breakout idiots are constantly hammered until enough orders are scooped and life must move on (typically in the direction of the overall higher time frame trend).
having a bias is never good. the trend is what you're after, not bias.
bias is a terrible thing to have when trading...
react to what the charts are telling you, not what you want them to tell you...
react to the subtle nuances that are shown...
case in point, mr. fundamental
his bias was long GBP today...
missed out on an initial 140 ticks
took him until 13:30 to work out longs were off
did he get short? hmmmm
well said thx
Apologies to the OP for hijacking, final post.
First Bias -
One of the hidden enemies of retail traders, bias - to exclude a particular aspect of the market in approach, whether that is market direction, market sentiment, ICT's approach to teaching TA, a successful mechanical system - whatever, Bias means exclusion of a piece of the market, that excluded piece can have the potential to earn profits or make losses.
Second, missed points/pips.
A trader who views pips/points left on the table either before or after his trade as being somehow missed is wrong, they were not his pips, they belong to the market.
The market is happy for us to use those pips on the table to define the next trade, but usually if we go seeking those pips we will encounter losses.
Pips viewed as missed before the trade will encourage lack of patience, we will often jump into the trade too early. Pips viewed as missed after the trade will usually encourage us to 'hang in', often allowing a profit to turn into a loss.
Case in point, I was short for some of the recent fall in S&P, I exited on Tuesday, pretty much near the high of the day.
Next day, unusually later in the day the S&P fell by 60 in an hour - did I view those points as missed?.
The hell I did, I was grateful for the profit that the market had already given me and I wanted the next trade, far from viewing these points as missed I recognized that such a late fall often alerts the bargain hunters, these "missed" points set in motion an analysis that allowed me to enjoin in a market turnaround.
Jonny mentions suckers, on the Gbp/Usd trade, two pieces of information hit the market, London there was the YouGov poll re future UK inflation, that sent GBP iun a tizzy down, next was the USD, an impatient trader may well have gone short, and many did, on the yougov, I chose to wait on the USD numbers, I could see momentum gaining after yougov, but those pips were not mine, then the USD numbers - the market is presently in a spin over US rates, negative numbers would likely halt the momentum, neutral numbers and the momentum may or may not continue - but positive numbers and all probabilities would be on the sell side.
USD numbers were positive - yet if you notice the momentum stopped, price actually rose 20 pips - remember the sheep and the slaughterhouse that ICT talked about a few years ago, they were buying, when price broke the low of price at the time of release, about 30 mins later - that was the time, no sl needed, momentum allowed a full tilt trade.
Btw - I don't view those guys as suckers, merely as not yet educated in the ways of the market "unwashed" as Williams calls them.
Anyways, thanks for the discussion, now back to work.
First Bias -
One of the hidden enemies of retail traders, bias - to exclude a particular aspect of the market in approach, whether that is market direction, market sentiment, ICT's approach to teaching TA, a successful mechanical system - whatever, Bias means exclusion of a piece of the market, that excluded piece can have the potential to earn profits or make losses.
Second, missed points/pips.
A trader who views pips/points left on the table either before or after his trade as being somehow missed is wrong, they were not his pips, they belong to the market.
The market is happy for us to use those pips on the table to define the next trade, but usually if we go seeking those pips we will encounter losses.
Pips viewed as missed before the trade will encourage lack of patience, we will often jump into the trade too early. Pips viewed as missed after the trade will usually encourage us to 'hang in', often allowing a profit to turn into a loss.
Case in point, I was short for some of the recent fall in S&P, I exited on Tuesday, pretty much near the high of the day.
Next day, unusually later in the day the S&P fell by 60 in an hour - did I view those points as missed?.
The hell I did, I was grateful for the profit that the market had already given me and I wanted the next trade, far from viewing these points as missed I recognized that such a late fall often alerts the bargain hunters, these "missed" points set in motion an analysis that allowed me to enjoin in a market turnaround.
Jonny mentions suckers, on the Gbp/Usd trade, two pieces of information hit the market, London there was the YouGov poll re future UK inflation, that sent GBP iun a tizzy down, next was the USD, an impatient trader may well have gone short, and many did, on the yougov, I chose to wait on the USD numbers, I could see momentum gaining after yougov, but those pips were not mine, then the USD numbers - the market is presently in a spin over US rates, negative numbers would likely halt the momentum, neutral numbers and the momentum may or may not continue - but positive numbers and all probabilities would be on the sell side.
USD numbers were positive - yet if you notice the momentum stopped, price actually rose 20 pips - remember the sheep and the slaughterhouse that ICT talked about a few years ago, they were buying, when price broke the low of price at the time of release, about 30 mins later - that was the time, no sl needed, momentum allowed a full tilt trade.
Btw - I don't view those guys as suckers, merely as not yet educated in the ways of the market "unwashed" as Williams calls them.
Anyways, thanks for the discussion, now back to work.
a whole lotta words, zero substance... how do you trade it?
where is the sweet FA thread?
"the news" is an excuse used by the market maker (banksters) to move the market.
they care less what it is...
all moves are priced in, its why you trade THROUGH the news, not ON the news
get your head around that...
the talking heads try to make sense of it and have no clue...
3 trade setups this morning...
another 2 after that; selling 14s for another 25 ticks a go to the 3.14 exit if you fancy, i perfer a 4.2 or 5.7 exit...
fully diverged histo bars above the wall, fib math guys in full control of the game... (early screenshot)
you're learning bugger all by sitting on the sidelines...
post some charts, show me where the rubber meets the road as you blend FA with TA...
where is the sweet FA thread?
"the news" is an excuse used by the market maker (banksters) to move the market.
they care less what it is...
all moves are priced in, its why you trade THROUGH the news, not ON the news
get your head around that...
the talking heads try to make sense of it and have no clue...
3 trade setups this morning...
another 2 after that; selling 14s for another 25 ticks a go to the 3.14 exit if you fancy, i perfer a 4.2 or 5.7 exit...
fully diverged histo bars above the wall, fib math guys in full control of the game... (early screenshot)
you're learning bugger all by sitting on the sidelines...
post some charts, show me where the rubber meets the road as you blend FA with TA...
outthislife
Well-Known Member
i just noticed. no macd?
rod178
Well-Known Member
jonnycab said:as you know the original method is not mine
im glad you're learning something from my execution of the method in the examples provided
wait, execute, repeat... it happens every single day, without fail
What is the 'original method'?
How are you finding cTrader? As for myself I consider that (programming) functionality is still too immature, although execution, spreads etc are far superior to MT4.
ctrader is excellent, very slick.
the only thing I wish they'd do is add range bars...
everything else I need is there by default or is available via their calgo indicators section.
my tools and charting are simple, no additional bells and whistles required... (i havent ventured into their cAlgo stuff at all)
very little (negligible) slippage on multi car execution...
although it could be a few ticks on 50+ cars
i wouldnt know, Piper might ;D
the only thing I wish they'd do is add range bars...
everything else I need is there by default or is available via their calgo indicators section.
my tools and charting are simple, no additional bells and whistles required... (i havent ventured into their cAlgo stuff at all)
very little (negligible) slippage on multi car execution...
although it could be a few ticks on 50+ cars
i wouldnt know, Piper might ;D