Given the way markets behave, the following schedule suggests some fun rides ahead.
Scottish referendum poll schedule
– September 10/11: Survation for Daily Record & Dundee University. @davieclegg the editor of the Daily Record will release the headline numbers on Twitter at around 22:30 on the 11th at which time the relevant tables will be made public.
– September 13/14: YouGov for the Sunday Times, possibly shared with the Sun on Sunday in which case it MAY break earlier than usual, eg on twitter then online on the Sun’s website late on the 13th.
– September 14: Likely date for ICM’s “final poll” – unconfirmed. Fieldwork likely to ‘lag’ by at least a few days.
– September 17: Ipsos Mori. Telephone. The fieldwork period for this poll is uclear but as a guide, Ipsos’ last poll for STV was conducted July 28-August 3 and published on August 5 – a full 8 days of fieldwork.
– September 17: Survation media poll, online method.
– September 17: YouGov for the Sun, “final poll”.
Then there is the
real poll, by which time everyone will be confused.
Cable rallied as the latest poll surprisingly showed a 53 % for No and 47 % for Yes, excluding the “Undecided”-votes. The pair rallied to 1.6228, which is the weekly high posted on Monday, and stalled there. Not sure what to think about the Cable at the moment. There are several more polls ahead before the final vote comes out on September 18th, so it will stay very volatile with whipsaw price action. The next major resistance is Friday’s close of 1.6320, while support lies at 1.6150 and then 1.6120.
http://milancutkovic.com/2014/09/11/asia-open-briefing-11092014/
PS. It hasn't slowed down Hopi though!