GBP / USD

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rod178 said:
I had a conversation with Christopher Monckton (AMEC) a couple of years ago.

Name dropper :p

rod178 said:
I'd like to donate Tasmania (Green haven) to New Zealand

You can't. It's mine. It came with a block of flats too, part of a great deal when I bought a very sharp kitchen knife.
 
AusDoc said:
Name dropper :p

You can't. It's mine. It came with a block of flats too, part of a great deal when I bought a very sharp kitchen knife.

He is much maligned. I actually like him, probably due to having similar opinions on anthropogenic climate change.

As for your block of flats - Christine Milne as a neighbour. Better option would be Linda Raschke.
 
http://milancutkovic.com/2014/09/08/us-open-briefing-08092014/

GBP/USD extended losses in the EU session and reached a fresh low of 1.6103. Dealers note that Asian sovereign names and specs have been the main sellers. The most likely scenario is that we’ll see whipsaw price action until the Scottish referendum next week, but with a clear downside bias. Rallies will very likely attract renewed selling from specs. Intraday resistance at 1.6180 and then 1.6234.
 
Did anyone catch the next move down on the Cable about one hr thirty minutes after NYO yesterday.

I went short a little early (not enough patience) and was stoppled out for 9pips. :'(
 
rod178 said:
Did anyone catch the next move down on the Cable about one hr thirty minutes after NYO yesterday.

I went short a little early (not enough patience) and was stoppled out for 9pips. :'(

Nope, though I was looking around for a Short there. They Turtle Souped the LO Swing point.
 
sqa said:
Nope, though I was looking around for a Short there. They Turtle Souped the LO Swing point.

so they did. ouch.
Anyway, just shorted Cable on the liquidy hunt at the CBDR high, facilitated by the good manufacturing results

Stops now to BE so will let it run until beore Carney speaks in about two hours
 
rod178 said:
so they did. ouch.
Anyway, just shorted Cable on the liquidy hunt at the CBDR high, facilitated by the good manufacturing results

Stops now to BE so will let it run until beore Carney speaks in about two hours

There's this running issue where I don't quite trust my Cable analysis, yet, and I was looking for a Short & the same thinking there, haha.

Nice to know I'm not alone and my analysis works more than I trade it. :)
 
We've gone from expectations of Scoxit to concern over Brexit.

bhJBfqr.jpg


More:
http://www.breakingviews.com/21163617.article?h=3f3654dbd9e43dfca5ea7568b7ceccca&s=2

What'll they think of next...
 
First short stopped out for BE

Placed a second position, only small, at the OTE/CBDR Dev 1 High.
Gott hit on spike Carney News, although at $1 per pip it will not make the wife all that excited. I'll just let it run for interest. So far up about $30 and moved the stopp to a couple of pips above the wick high.

edit
PS Initial Stop 26 pips
DD 6pips
Do not try this at home
 
Given the way markets behave, the following schedule suggests some fun rides ahead.

Scottish referendum poll schedule

– September 10/11: Survation for Daily Record & Dundee University. @davieclegg the editor of the Daily Record will release the headline numbers on Twitter at around 22:30 on the 11th at which time the relevant tables will be made public.
– September 13/14: YouGov for the Sunday Times, possibly shared with the Sun on Sunday in which case it MAY break earlier than usual, eg on twitter then online on the Sun’s website late on the 13th.
– September 14: Likely date for ICM’s “final poll” – unconfirmed. Fieldwork likely to ‘lag’ by at least a few days.
– September 17: Ipsos Mori. Telephone. The fieldwork period for this poll is uclear but as a guide, Ipsos’ last poll for STV was conducted July 28-August 3 and published on August 5 – a full 8 days of fieldwork.
– September 17: Survation media poll, online method.
– September 17: YouGov for the Sun, “final poll”.

Then there is the real poll, by which time everyone will be confused. :)

Cable rallied as the latest poll surprisingly showed a 53 % for No and 47 % for Yes, excluding the “Undecided”-votes. The pair rallied to 1.6228, which is the weekly high posted on Monday, and stalled there. Not sure what to think about the Cable at the moment. There are several more polls ahead before the final vote comes out on September 18th, so it will stay very volatile with whipsaw price action. The next major resistance is Friday’s close of 1.6320, while support lies at 1.6150 and then 1.6120.
http://milancutkovic.com/2014/09/11/asia-open-briefing-11092014/

PS. It hasn't slowed down Hopi though! :)
 
rod178 said:

From the article:
FX volatility prices imply that the GBPUSD will trade within an approximate 4.2 percent range in the coming eight days, or a 700-pip high-to-low GBP move through the Scottish referendum. Given current spot price of $1.6200, this implies price could drop as low as $1.5850 and/or rally to $1.6550. But which direction is more likely?

A classic setup for a nice options play.
 
Anyone else watching the votes roll in?

First councils' no vote saw a nice pop in the pound take place. :D

UJIgggF.gif
 
Two councils now representing the 'No's.. Pound pushes higher:

nTQLq2y.jpg


Current tally says 'No' at 57%.. still though, 30 more councils to go, anything can happen.
 
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