Supply And Demand

[Piper]

Stumbled on some free quality material by Sam Seiden .. Enjoy!

A nice simple system i've cooked from the below ingredients to utilize the concepts.GL!
http://fxgears.com/forum/index.php/topic,396.0.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHndqIV433Y&list=PLxYo5fP9bnnabvQ7Td9oGA1itryY2mVoL&index=2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKT07EcDibY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1PEDq1-FYk

A book on the topic ,Thank you notes to fred9455.This will give good grasp about the concept.

http://www.4shared.com/office/-NSnSDXqba/Price_is_Everything.html

Two and a half hours of more quality material with no marketing/selling twists whatsoever,and a deeper touch and more detailed explanation about the s/d concept.

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/supply--demand-and-odds-enhancers---part-1-foundation-20120604/
http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/supply--demand-and-odds-enhancers---part-2-foundation-20120705/
http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/supply--demand-and-odds-enhancers---part-3-application-20120810/

Enjoy!

Some additional findings by Doc, and also an indi! Tnx doc

There are some pretty useful resources available for getting the most from supply and demand.

This forexfactory thread has a good intro:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428204
Including this cool graphic:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1447280&d=1402652572
The thread starter moved on to his own site which is paid, but also offers plenty for free:
http://www.set-and-forget.com/supply_demand_beginners
Have a browse and watch a video or two to make your own mind up concerning its value.

There are also 3 posts of briefer, quite simple and sound info here:
http://instaforexpips.com/simplicity-supply-demand-trading-strategy/ [links to next 2 articles at bottom]
The author of this series appears to be the origin of the indicator I shared above. You can download the original version and a couple of pdf ebooks from within those posts. The ebooks are worth a look, especially some of the chart graphics with markup. I won't post them here because if you're interested you should go to the above links, and if you're not, there's no need!

 

[rod178]

The third video is worth watching

 

[jack]

Great find!

Very into SS' stuff.

 

[Piper]

Yea... whats cool,i just checked my charts,and you could start trading pretty profitably by this concept alone.. Amazing.. )
Just remember if you trying to utilize it. "Drop after rally,and rally after drop"

 

[rod178]

This seems very similar, and a complement, to the ICT Order Block Concept, together with Central Bank Dealers Range concept.

 

[AusDoc]

OK, I got through it all... finally.

That motor-mouth interviewer spoils the top one for me, not that there's much actual content really. The second one seems to be a brief subset of the third. In the third, Sam is doing a classic sell job, undermining other (competing) ideas and methods (largely quite justified in doing so I might add) while subtly pointing to his own methods as the obvious solution. All this in the usual wrapping of what is basically an infomercial. Pity about the poor audio and attendee question management which detract from the presentation too unfortunately.

I agree with his basic assertion that conventional technical analysis has become more problem than solution. I think around the 27 min mark he goes too far with this when he refers to double tops and bottoms and I think he is also wrong to reject support and resistance as worthless. It may be true to say that these concepts are not taught very well in most trading education circles but in his sales mode he fails to make this distinction adequately. So some things he says are fine but I don't agree with everything he says.

So is anything he says actually new? I don't think so. His supply and demand levels are roughly equivalent to order blocks. His unfilled orders that make markets move concept is just a description of simple market mechanics. Obviously for price to actually move somewhere it must move to different prices! If you want to extend this concept further then it becomes the ideas of resting stops and liquidity pools. Nothing new.

"Drop after rally,and rally after drop"

Yep, that's a good summary Piper. Again though, nothing new surely. Doesn't every smart trader know how not to make retail entries? This is elementary "enter at the first pullback" stuff, which is fine, so long as it's actioned.

His story about his beginning and the (secretive) screens he was watching is interesting. Most experienced futures traders will have used, and may have traded from, a DOM tool. I saw all those ones and twos go through like he said but I certainly also saw the massive orders hit and fill too. It's a shame we can't do that in spot fx.

So thanks Piper. I'm relieved that you're not actually giving away too many secrets. )

 

[AusDoc]

Is this the basic story according to Sam? (I would prefer to buy both.)

 

[Piper]

I can see the s/r lines,i pretty much disregard them.None of you translation of what you seen is right by my opinion.. Keep an open mind and eye.. One of the biggest pitfalls in tradinig (i fall into this too sometimes) is simply listening and trading according to what's inside of your head,not with the the markets and charts and interacting with reality in general .. No offense meant Doc Sam's stuff is good,tough his technique is a bit crude in my opinion but this alone is enough to churn some hefty profits if you really get it. A good building block towards consistency.

 

[Piper]

And it's rolling down babyyyyyyyyyyyyyy oh yeaaaa 8) in hindsight of course > tough there are the levels you marked with buy here and yea i know that the 1st haven't really delivered.

he states in his stuff that if a supp lvl have a spike on the other direction in it,its not that reliable. So i'm not going to post another one but by his definition because of the supp above the market supposed to turn or what(it actully coincides with a tl by accident ) ?
Who knows,time will tell

edit: just for arguments sake with trendies. notice any difference?

 

[rod178]

Piper 1
AusDoc 0

 

[foreigner]

A good building block towards consistency.

This stuff is complete subjective nonsense in my opinion and from experience has nothing to do with consistency.

As a rabbit trail, ye its useful, you know not to go down it again.

Ill give you one good reason its a half truth. Orders stack either side of price not just where price has moved away from.

ICTs turtle soup proves this point.

This is the problem I have with Chris Loris teaching as well, it seemingly ignores the MM buy/sell model, where the market makers target the liquidity pocket 'outside the range' or under the price swing.

I see supply and demand as a historic function. It has no bearing on the future in my opinion. You can only begin to predict supply if your holding the purse, which we're not, and you cant predict relative demand becuase you dont know how much supply there is at a given level, so all in all supply and demand is logical, it sounds clever, but nothing more than a fallacy Im afraid, like most things youll learn on Fx Street.

 

[foreigner]

Supply And Demand is a half truth for traders that think this is a 'real' marketplace, guess what happens to those traders?

Sure, the market may have a "real world" business need but its about as far from free market capitalism as you can get, so whats supply and demand got to do with predicting it?

Sam Seiden and Chris Lori know this is not a real market place, supply and demand is manipulated, so my question is, why dont they tell you that? ICT bares no bones about it.

 

[Kuzia]

Big boys buy big boys want to buy more they go back and buy some more lol. I just see reactions near big boy order blocks I don't see no demand and supply

 

[BigLots]

Sam introduced me to these S/D 'zones' a while back. It does make sense and works. For example, the more times price revisits and 'eats away' at the bids/offers at those levels, the area loses it's repelling power. ICT's explanation was more precise...as a sniper would be I suppose. He targeted the specific final candle, wick included and explained that price returned back to that dealing level as the Big Player couldn't get all their orders filled and so stopped their dealing and once price drifted back, they bought and away she went.

Rally-Base-Rally, Drop-Base-Drop....how powerfully price moves away from the level, how much time has elapsed between revisiting level, how many times it's visited the level and a couple more things not standing out....thanks Sam for that. That's about it. Thanks to ICT for honing in on it and then some and other things to boot. It's all good.

To be honest, why wouldn't a trader ONLY look for these zones? It offers highest probabilities as the orders are on your side. It's all about being on the right of unfilled orders, no?

 

[Piper]

Big boys buy big boys want to buy more they go back and buy some more lol. I just see reactions near big boy order blocks I don't see no demand and supply

Sam been teaching it for a shitload of years. This is not an ICT concept. Orderblock is kinda supp/dem, tough not exactly. (Tough i respect ICT very much for trying to teach the crowd.)

Great find!

Very into SS' stuff.

Trades for a living. Not by accident.

..This stuff is complete subjective nonsense in my opinion and from experience has nothing to do with consistency.

As a rabbit trail, ye its useful, you know not to go down it again.
..

Yeayea.. Whatever you saying.. True insight.. Keep it up.. >

.. So i'm not going to post another one but by his definition because of the supp above the market supposed to turn or what(it actully coincides with a tl by accident ) ? ..

before the fact calling or what? Tough only 35ish lame pips.I'm sure that pro's like you don't need that kind of small pip count. (chart attached for you dear Foreigner)
Really love guys like you,closed minded and not able to perceive anything outside of their head,the typical crowd of the 98% retail.. Well, need to take somebody the other side of my trades.. Keep up the good work of making me richer

Cheers

 

[foreigner]

Really love guys like you,closed minded and not able to perceive anything outside of their head,the typical crowd of the 98% retail.. Well, need to take somebody the other side of my trades.. Keep up the good work of making me richer

Cheers

Next youll be telling me that moving averages act as support resistance...

If you believe in it trade it, good luck to you

Trades for a living. Not by accident.

No one as far as Im aware sets out to be a trader, we're all here by "accident" so Im not sure what your point is?

[mod edit: attack the idea, not the person directly. -Jack]

 

[Piper]

No one as far as Im aware sets out to be a trader, we're all here by "accident" so Im not sure what your point is?

Yup Specially the pro trader who's created this forum is here by "accident"..
Dude,are you listening to yourself?
My point is that maybe hes got a clue what hes talking about..

monkey see monkey do

Rather a winning monkey then a loosing one

BTW Moving averages are magic,specially if you combine 'em with magic beans,then they'll deliver 8)
Now check your squeaky lines..

 

[Piper]

I love guys like you.. made me to invent a new system.. Took me like 5 min. Create a demo to test it Pick any ema above 40 and below 90
1. Moav(trend) up,buy supply below or on ema.
2. moav down sell demand above or on ema.
3. Ema flat (rangetrading yay) trade sup/dem below/above ema .
3. 2-3 pip s/l above supp/dem.
4. Target is next supp/dem.
5. profit

There you go, simple easy and profitable made up by the "ridiculous" stuff you are criticizing,would bet that its more profitable and simple then your current grail And prolly better then most of the 2-3k systems that out there And probably will work on any tf tough would utilize it on 5 min+ .. A freebie for you Trade Pipertech and you'll profit >

BTW, youre perceiving nothing outside your own head, youve just adopted someone elses belief.

Anyways keep arguing with facts/charts without anything real to show... gl :thumbsup:

 

[jack]

Sam introduced me to these S/D 'zones' a while back. It does make sense and works. For example, the more times price revisits and 'eats away' at the bids/offers at those levels, the area loses it's repelling power. ICT's explanation was more precise...as a sniper would be I suppose. He targeted the specific final candle, wick included and explained that price returned back to that dealing level as the Big Player couldn't get all their orders filled and so stopped their dealing and once price drifted back, they bought and away she went.

Rally-Base-Rally, Drop-Base-Drop....how powerfully price moves away from the level, how much time has elapsed between revisiting level, how many times it's visited the level and a couple more things not standing out....thanks Sam for that. That's about it. Thanks to ICT for honing in on it and then some and other things to boot. It's all good.

To be honest, why wouldn't a trader ONLY look for these zones? It offers highest probabilities as the orders are on your side. It's all about being on the right of unfilled orders, no?

Don't want this post to get lost in the shuffle.. (others can see it now)

Once you get to 5 posts, all new posts won't need moderation.

 

[foreigner]

"To be honest, why wouldn't a trader ONLY look for these zones? "

BEcuase if it was just about orders stacked at reaction levels we'd all be rich right?!

Call it what you like, supply and demand is a truism, its a half truth, and youll tie yourself in knots trading this without understanding the abstract to the concept which to me are liquidity pools.

[mod edit: attack the idea, not the person, thanks. -Jack]