Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by Peterma, May 22, 2016.
Yep, seems, according to the wisdom of the oxford dictionary: ta;
Late 18th century: a child's word.
Says a lot more than I could ever hope to.
If I ever believed there was a market that was "so easy to predict" i'd load up with 20% risk per trade as per Kelly Criterion and make 'em puke until God himself wouldn't take the other side of my trades...
Well the problem is you're trying to trade markets that are not "TA friendly."
I'm realizing this now and I feel ashamed. If only the market makers would tell me which are friendly and which are mean.
Everyone is selling, where oh where should I buy?
The little friendly arrow of course - how many times must I tell you?
That's about as friendly as it gets.
imho the market is more likely to slide lower, although I am more certain that Shop Girl will remain puerile and Suicide Cat will remain without hope.
Yeah, in the meantime day trading rules.
Not going to bother with another chart, the first up arrow was the buys in anticipation of risk on, all rosy in the garden - way back in the first page of the thread - reply no. 4.
Then profit time, guys have to live, then the pull back - not a reversal - pulled back 50% of the move, then in we go again yum yum.
Higher highs, higher lows - it's going to be a Bremain.
Then brown stuff hits the fan, back we go to the happy line, then up 50% of the fall, risk def not on so take the profit guys...... back to the happy line.
Today, up 50% of that move, risk is shaky, out we go ..... well no, it's tight sl time again, the happy line stops have been run already so no point in putting a sl way down there.
See what I mean about friendly, all a guy has to do is figure the happy line.
Now back to the news .... Yellen is going to cut
real traders have no use for directional bias, that's something you picked up from your sociopath mentor, ICT
these bitches go up and down....
Now here's a wee thought, before I go to sleep.
So the agencies, in their infinite wisdom, have downgraded UK, and it so happens that the UK runs a not so small deficit which needs serviced.
Uh oh, up goes the cost - well not really because when you look at UK bonds, the immediate heat is off.
Ah the poor investor, he sold his Gbp stocks and hadn't the heart to buy Usd because he would take a hit on the FX, so he stuck with his Gbp's and bought the bonds, now wonder what will happen when that little flurry of buying dries up.
I'll dream about it ..........is that a gap that I'm counting the sheep going through?
Don't think about it, just trade it.
Thinking leads to expectations. Expectations lead to hope. Hope leads to emotions. Emotions lead to LOSS.
See the pattern, trade the pattern.
"this is a thinking man's game" - so says some guy called Williams.
I think he was trying to get across that notion of 'trading in the zone', - the collective mind, sometimes the pattern is a reflection of that mind.
Anyways, back to the USD2000, the FTSE 250 is the UK version, yesterday the Telegraph posed the headline "Why we should be looking at the FTSE 250 and not the FTSE 100 to gauge the impact of Brexit".
Check the USD2000 for risk appetite, which btw is still wanting to go north, it has to wait first on the dax and ftse and then on the spx - if thumbs up then on we go ...................
insofar as seeing requires the brain to process and interpret the pattern, then fire off a signal to your fingers to click the fuckin mouse.
beyond that, you entering the 99% category.
carry on ........
Ftse has closed the gap - some are thinking that this has been the driver up, who knows/cares.
The trip north on the USD2000 has almost reached that TA friendly 50% mark, stops are now placed just below Monday's low, so reasonable chance those will get swallowed at some stage tomorrow.
The happy line will get broken only on a change of sentiment so not likely any wisdom buying at the arrow in the immediate future.
GG is correct about thinking, our human tendency is to over-think causing worry, 'trading in the zone' means being relaxed, absence of worry - just a sudden thought, wonder is that why demo accounts are successful but switch to live and it goes off the track.
Hmmm... back to Brexit, The UK fin minister mentioned yesterday that tax rises and Govt spending cuts are up ahead, no-one questioned why, bet he is thinking of the gap that those sheep were jumping through last night.
When the farmer starts closing it off I'll give y'all a heads up .
Well now we know, he duly hinted and cable dropped around 160, nice Carney.
price dropped before he even started talking. it's a scam
Nah GG, it's just that mostly those guys are predictable, it's a rehearsed script, then the market pretends to react, kinda like a big game.
Next one up is M Draghi, he will likely say that Europe will adopt a 'wait and see' and no immediate plans for extra money printing, then the market will react by buying some Euros.
Then Yellen, who decided not to go to Portugal, will say' hmmm... maybe there might not actually be any more immediate rate increases in the way you guys were hoping, things are sort of bumpy at present and the more statesman(woman)like approach will to be 'cautious'.
So the market will react by selling some USD's
Current game in town is Brexit, so doesn't matter the numbers.
We have a saying in our part of the world - it's great craic.
Edit: getting into the mind of the ECB is no easy task, but M Draghi is no Carney, there is a guy who sits on his shoulder, doesn't even have a vote, but apparently he is a wisemann, or is it a Weidmann, anyways he is the mann
New week starting, was going to leave things awhile but a little distraction caused a re-think.
The next link I'm going to give will be a big bore, what I like to do is pick out the guys that matter, then skim read, then I get a sense of what they are thinking.
I remember back reading a Yellen speech shortly before NFP, I realized from the content that the numbers were going to be good simply because her words were full of positives, figured that she would not allow such a speech to cause embarrassment by NFP numbers.
Had another one with Weidmann, cannot remember the exact detail, but was just before ECB announcement.
And since I'm being an old time bore, thought I'd bore all the kids who have figured that they know everything.
Thanks to PMH over on BP for the heads up on this interview:
Separate names with a comma.