SPX-Gears

Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by Peterma, May 22, 2016.

  1. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Btw, if I had been a little more greedy and had the TP lower I would have exited anyway, USD2000 with USD/JPY, the index made the double bottom but usd/jpy said 'no way Jose'

    At the same time SPX made a new low for the week - but the US bonds echoed USD/JPY, seems it's the same song.

    And all the while that I'm yakking the indices are rising :)
     

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  2. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Hi guys, post NFP thoughts.

    Usually I take a position pre NFP, sometimes I'm aggressive, sometimes not so, yet other times I'm flat because I have zero notion of likely outcome.

    This time was one of those times that I was caught up in the hype, I was so USD positive it was unreal, there were green lights on all fronts.

    I had intended from last week to buy USD across the board, sell the stocks, I was seeking the best instrument, had done my homework, all was set - then came Thursday.... something was wrong.

    Thursday, specifically when the Yanks came into play, there was a big problem - they were buying bonds. You don't buy bonds when all is well, yet the SPX was still rising, this was one time to chicken out, that's exactly what I did, and hated myself for doing so.

    My FA training told me that the US employers were upbeat, after all Business Confidence registered a rise, the Fed were upbeat, blah.. so why buy bonds?

    Anyways, the upshot you all know, so come Monday seems like stocks to the upside ...

    Btw, SPX daily, s/r horizontal is a reasonable line to have:
     

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  3. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Stocks went to the upside, no big surprise, the clue was in the s/r horizontal, price 'should' have been going up but simply went down for whatever.

    Think I might have mentioned before that if I see this on a Friday then a buy on Monday is common.

    I remember Williams doing something on buys on Mondays.

    Bet Jack is happy on his trade.
     

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  4. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ok, this horiz s/r thing is becoming repetitive and boring, so last mention of it.

    The green and red lines are painted by the indie, in fact none of the lines are my creation.

    The up arrow is just a repeat of the significance of bars or patterns when put into context, the high of the Asian was as far as it would go, latecomers to the party likely joined on the break of the top green line.
     

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  5. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Repetitive, boring , maybe even predictable.

    Anyways, some work to do, c u y'all later.
     

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  6. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Repetitive and predictable - yet more latecomers joined on the break of the green.

    The chart this morning, that last candle stopped right at that green (check mark), was a reasonable point then to set a buy stop, DD was fractional with the top high a reasonable target - that is the predictable part.

    Getting late in the week so I'm more nervous for tomorrow on the buy side.

    (edit: forgot the check mark, it is the 6th candle on the way up today - the last, then unclosed, candle on the previous post)
     

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  7. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Well, VIX was only sliding down so I managed to work out of my trade for basically break even. Didn't see the downside in the markets I wanted.

    Today there's a small-ish uptick in volatility, but not much.. appears we are heading into summertime trading as expected, no fireworks, lol..
     
  8. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Last night I could 'see' the H&S that was going to form - the neckline has been there all week, not sure whether you guys noticed that there was a green line being superimposed on a red line, it has been like a giant marker set up for the end of the week.

    There were guys that waited for it's break today, their DD was zero, even the 200 sma traders got in on the act.

    That's the SPX.
     

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  9. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Back on last week (hindsight rubbish), a colleague asked why did I use the word 'nervous', he knows that it not an emotion that easily fits into my psyche. (when you reach d'un certain age nervousness becomes a distant memory).

    I mentioned back in the thread that I view the market as a bunch of thinking heads, so the chart tells you how that head is thinking, you get to sense the emotion.

    The latecomers (reply 25), these mostly are the guys who missed out, they have a particular emotion - FOMO.

    That sixth candle, that was the one that made the thinking head nervous, the fact that the latecomers came back for even more made the close happen at the top ( be careful on a close at the top).

    Anyways, long story short, that sixth candle was where the 'smart' money laid their orders to the sell side on Friday.

    (yellow horiz is that sixth candle)

    Onto the right side, will wait for some more downside, especially UK morning, then ready for some more buys, je crois.
     

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  10. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Monday - Uk morning down side as expected, no trade for me as yet, all antennae whispering to buy, but no-one has told price, so will wait.....
     
  11. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Still waiting .......
     
  12. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Tue close - still waiting for a buy, feels like a long time, but it is only two days.

    Getting ready for tomorrow, if it's going to happen then it's tomorrow.
     
  13. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Well it didn't happen, finally went long on Friday evening, hoped for the gap.

    Right now DE30 is playing the leader, so sl to b/e, and hoping for a push north today.

    They say it takes patience, that took an entire week.

    Will take a rest now, back in a couple of months, all being well.
     
  14. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    Brexit...

    ES Sept futures have hit the overnight price limit (lock limit down) right now (12:30pm EST,) one handle below 2000.

    This is hitting way harder that most people expected. Tomorrow is gonna be interesting.

    [​IMG]

    Wonder how far we fall once trading opens back up.
     
  15. the golden gun

    the golden gun RINSE & REPEAT

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    5-8%

    I'm just guessing but I'll probably be right.
     
  16. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

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    I've seen pre-market limit downs that bounce off the limit before... looks like it happened again today. Nothing like a 30+ handle move in the first hour of the cash trading day.. :D
     
  17. the golden gun

    the golden gun RINSE & REPEAT

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    Cool. I never traded S&P in my life. Not even once. it's like meth to me
     
  18. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    GG - try out the Usd2000, it's TA friendly and liquid.

    I had a long with a tight sl pre brexit, the sl got honoured no problem.

    Here is the current daily, after Brexit. That yellow up arrow was already there, likely some yakking that I was doing earlier since I use this Oanda chart for that purpose (yakking).
     

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  19. the golden gun

    the golden gun RINSE & REPEAT

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    what the fuck you doin trading US equities during brexit? Shoulda shorted cable like I did.

    what is this, a candy shop? I'm not looking to try the flavour of the week, just kill it in whatever market is moving. And i've yet to see the day where there isn't movement in the FX markets...
     
  20. Peterma

    Peterma Well-Known Member

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    Ahhh... good old FX so easy to predict.

    So come tomorrow, more of the same, sell Gbp? - why not choose stocks - remember it's buy buy Monday.

    Anyways, back to the sweet shop pour moi.

    Edit: forgot to mention Carney, wonder what happens when he hints at interest rates, rumour is that he watching cable too.
     

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