Piper's Valeria

Discussion in 'Systems and Methods' started by Piper, Aug 20, 2013.

  1. Piper

    Piper Guest

    Hi Guys!
    Some background:
    I'm trading only the cable and the fiber.I'm benching them by the usdx SMT made by ICT.
    What's bugged me until now that it was usually hard to chose wich one from the pairs are more likely to go to the direction of the usdx.Usually until now mostly the answer was to look for the more bearish/bullish pair.After Tansen gave me some feedback about hes assessment of some anticipated moves(in what he was right as usual),i started to think more deeply about the whole issue.And thus Valeria been born(Value Reassesing Tool).
    The Core idea came from the ICT SMT divergences what is very useful in my opinion if you are day trading and trying to catch divergences in realtime. But I've failed to utilize(I've failed!The USDX smt is a great tool.And i saw some people who are succeeding to utilize it to a broader perspective in their analysis.I'm unfortunately not one of those) it to a more broader perspective for my self.And I think I found a solution to the issue.Its utilizes the EUR/GBP pair (an upgraded SMT tool basically). I've benched it 6 months back and its seems to work(very accurately i must say).The core concept is this:
    [​IMG]

    In order to use this chart up also EUR/GBP and this supposed to help in my opinion,if you are looking for the pair with more favorable short/medium term swingtrades.
    And of course don't take my word for it.Check it out for yourself with backtesting,to see if it works for you,and only utilize it in a demo account.Hope it'll help!(more to come,thinking about an indie about the thing) And as soon as i'll get home i'll post some charts to shove that its working.

    You are welcome to post your thoughts/comments about it.Very welcome to point others from outside to this forum to check it out.
    You are not permitted to share this resource outside of this community!

    And of course Credit goes to the following guys:
    Tansen (For being the catalyst.)
    ICT (Inspiration with SMT.And generally being a very cool dude who's sharing a lot stuff for free)
    And last but not least: Jack (for creating an awesome community,the insights,and inspiration in general.)



    Cheers,
    Piper
     
  2. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2,427
    Re: Piper's Valery Tool

    I understand what you're getting at, and yes it totally helps give you an idea of short term strengths vs weaknesses in pairs by analyzing their crosses... but do take a little time to view back and really get a feel for how a given cross moves on its own.

    EUR/GBP for instance has a tendency to range, stop on a dime, reverse, and break out into a new range zone all without much warning.

    Perhaps you can post a few of your charts and examples in how you're using it?

    :)
     
  3. Piper

    Piper Guest

    Re: Piper's Valery Tool

    Gladly. I 1st employed it yesterday,and it's delivering for now. From what i see in the pair,although it likes to consolidate ,and its true that its mostly ranging,but it obeys retracements and support in such a disciplined way,that i started to think that this is the pair that i should utilize in position trading.
    Anyways,I'll broke it down from high to low.And of course its all hindsight,except yesterday and todays trading,where i did utilized it.

    [​IMG]

    in the weekly we are in a downtrend,what lines up nicely with the lately bull cable.

    [​IMG]

    We turned bear in the last two weeks(green cube).At a monthly high important resistance line.What's also a perfect ict reflection pattern.Reached a daily resistance ,what's almost perfect 1.76 fib projection level.

    [​IMG]

    Consolidation in the brown box(anticipated turn) where it's started to give turning signals(nested OTE's)

    [​IMG]

    It seems like a really well behaving currency pair at dynamic s/r's 8)

    [​IMG]

    The yellow box is the reason why i was bullish with the fiber yesterday,the green box is the reason why i was bull with cable today.What's now in NYO would be changed again to the fiber(finished for now),since EUR/GBP reaching for a dynamic s/r with OTE.
    Anyways,its just a simple tool to help to give you a bit of an edge when deciding which one to trade for bigger profit if you've got a general direction bias on fib/cable and the dx.

    If anythings unclear,just ask.

    Cheers,
    Piper
     
  4. jack

    jack Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2,427
    It's also common for traders to use a basket index of their target currency to get an idea of how hot it relative to others. Kinda like what you're doing here only including other major crosses as well...

    Only, in this case, given you are aiming to just focus on GPB/USD or EUR/USD for ICT like setups, then the EUR/GBP is mostly all that's needed to reference.

    A key take away here is that you're "getting it" when it comes to analyzing relative strengths and weaknesses between pairs, and more importantly, you're looking at what price is doing 'in the now' that could affect your trade... not trying to dig up news articles after the fact to find out 'what happened'.

    :)
     
  5. Piper

    Piper Guest

    Hey Jack!
    Well,i'm kind of happy about the fact that i rediscovered the fact on my own.It kind of gives me confidence to make my own innovations even if they are commonly exercised and known by pro's.
    And I'm not really focusing on news anymore,only the time factor to know when volatility is being provided to reach out for extreme HTF retracements. It's kind of funny.When i started trading i still remember one of the ICT vids where Mike is saying he doesn't really cares/watches the news.I thought that he's nuts. Nowadays it's funny how the market starts to move most of the time to the exact opposite of the supposed "impact" for tens or sometimes even hundred+ of points to a qualified HTF entry. Or at the opposite,a bit of move up to the news direction,then a huuuuge slam when some MR. Smart Money's objective have been met and hes dumping a few ten mills.Anyways i'm off to rabbit trails so back to topic.

    Also this tool,except the fact that its increasing the profit factor by a lot,it also increasing my edge.I altered my trading plan a bit.At 1st in these days i'm consulting the DX for a probable direction,cross referencing it with Valeria,and only then i'm starting to look at my pairs for qualified setups for longs and shorts only on the pair that supposed to move more favorably according to the anticipated direction. So it basically filters out also some trades that if i haven't been cross referencing i would take for less profit by far or for a loss.And i'm much more confident in the trades that i place,so the stress factor and pressure starting to diminish. :)
    If i'll succeed to implement my few other ideas with this kind of success that'll be good(got 2 more under development, the Comissarr (compiled super strong reliable resistance) and another one :) )

    [​IMG]

    Here is the picture with the developments from last week,nothing been altered,only dynamic s/r's been drawed out a bit farther.Its really well behaving.Mr X been met 8) ,now waiting for check.Time will tell.
     

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