Interesting article: The day momentum died, mean-reversion was born.


jack

Administrator
Staff member
Not specifically FX, more so S&P500 / equities, but very interesting to see how things have changed non-the-less... worth a read:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/08/the-day-momentum-died/
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Interesting. The end of the DotCom Bubble brought an end to a lot of "classic" action. The end of the QuantBubble killed what they had also found.
 

Computater707

Well-Known Member
sqa said:
Interesting. The end of the DotCom Bubble brought an end to a lot of "classic" action. The end of the QuantBubble killed what they had also found.
It also is probably a result of HFT
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Computater707 said:
It also is probably a result of HFT
A bit. 2009 was when most of the "Quant" groups suddenly got exploded. I think HTF did a number to them, but I also think major market actors also brought in a lot of the same staff. (A lot of consolidation after the 2008 explosion) So a lot of edges got cut down really rapidly.

Granted, the "best" strategies are still insider trading. But that's a whole different topic. :p
 

Peterma

Well-Known Member
I recall the day momentum died vividly - I was long various tech stocks, it so happened very exposed to the biggest loser on that day.

Various analysts were warning to check the p/e ratios, when there is momentum rationale goes out the window, price is all that the trader/investor can see, he looks back, sees the momentum and jumps in.

I can recall so clearly saying 'p/e and stuff like that is in the past, the techs are the future.'

Have things changed? - not really, the only thing that has changed is the time frame, now momentum is shorter, still very tradable, only difference is that the market too remembers and is more conscious of change, now extended p/e or the notion of overbought/sold is not dismissed.
 

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