ICT Homework Thread July 6th - 11th

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sqa

Village Scribe
I'm both surprisingly awake (long story) and getting a good bit of work done, since we're talking about Cable so much, while I think that July 4th high is likely to hold for a bit (mostly from Market Structure breaks), the Commercials seem to be suggesting that we're still going to grind up further in the future.

1.73 is seems like a possible Upswing target over the next 2 months. Past that, 1.76 is the next major level of previous Price Action. From there, we're up a long ways, unless Commercials figure out something we can't know, hehe.
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Hopiplaka said:
Thanks Sqa,

I think we have a nice example again on the 4H EU today.
The twin break phenomenon a sound piece of advice thanks Hopi. Will be interesting to see if EU plays out with the larger tide bearing down..
 

sqa

Village Scribe
sqa said:
Not that Cable didn't pop into a Order Block/OTE range, but it's shaping up to be a nasty Seek & Destroy day, though with maybe a late run down.

The important detail is that previous week's high should be baked in for a while, unless the BoE does something really funky on Thursday. If you're a Harmonics guy, I'd be trying to figure out the pattern being setup, as it looks really, really suspicious at the moment. That Tuesday Low broke Market Structure down on the H4 Chart, and I could make an argument it's the D1 Chart break as well, though that's fully confirmed when it breaks 1.6950 (which should be the Weekly Break, I believe, as well).

Go Go ICT Methods. First Arrow when I posted that statement. Other arrow just now.

Edit: and then the News dropped. Decent trade day, if you're light on your feet.
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
I don't think it will go lower than 1.7098 today.
And if it even reach there (during NYO) we might see a NYO reversal profile, else we have just the LO Low of the day.
Off by 2 pips for the low on Forex Ltd
But a nice NYO reversal profile to get in sync with the higher timeframe.
During FOMC an excellent chance to get in as well and hop on the train.
 

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sqa

Village Scribe
1.0793 on my Feed. But it also just ran up to 1.7160, we'll see if that holds. (If it does, they were just running up before running down later.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sqa said:
1.0793 on my Feed. But it also just ran up to 1.7160, we'll see if that holds. (If it does, they were just running up before running down later.
It run up from a 00 level. Tomorrow there is interest rate decision @ 11 GMT.
I think we can draw a fib from 1.7100 to whatever high will be formed and check the order blocks around the OTE zone to get long during early NYO.

Currently 1.7120 would be a nice entry, but we'll see tomorrow (after the CDR is formed)
 

sqa

Village Scribe
I do wonder, if we should move the CDR range +1 hour on 2pm EDT news release days? Seems a more accurate understanding of the actual CDR work.
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Hopiplaka said:
It's going pretty well I'd say :)
yes it looks almost convincing ;)

I should explain my bias, its based on declining yields and the way the 10 year note reacted to the lows recently, also approaching a seasonal high in EU. Lets see what happens tomorrow.
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Working on the Market Structure bit, here's a pretty hilarious one.

USD-JPY. H1 Chart. Look at 6 GMT on July 8th and 18 GMT on July 9th. It cleared the stop level, and I'm not joking, by 1 pipette.

I've decided this IS a Market Structure Break, now I'm just not sure if I'd trade it, lol.
 

sqa

Village Scribe
ICT is normally never this silent, even if he's running late with something.

At the same time, he might just be without power at the moment, as some pretty nasty storms just rolled through his area. Hope all is well.
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
Hopiplaka said:
I don't think it will go lower than 1.7098 today.
And if it even reach there (during NYO) we might see a NYO reversal profile, else we have just the LO Low of the day.
It went lower, you were 3pips out :p

I actually traded that reversal for 35pips, as several other factors triggered my entry signal, as did an exited on the failure at the AR/CDR high

Was actually thinking about going for a nested OTE although then past my bedtime and my trading rules prevent me from entering outside LO and NYO KZs

Questions (missed most ICT material - waiting for him release the new videos)
1) is it only the previous day's CDR std deviation high/low that are utilized. ie do you look for confluence with CDRs (or with KSR) from CDRs from several preceding days? How many?
2) my assumption is that Friday's CDR is not used, is that correct? (do not like trading Mondays anyway)
3) how does one address an extreme CDR (56pips), as last night? It seems like an aberration to be filtered out, as was mentioned by a previous poster.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
rod178 said:
It went lower, you were 3pips out :p

I actually traded that reversal for 35pips, as several other factors triggered my entry signal, as did an exited on the failure at the AR/CDR high

Was actually thinking about going for a nested OTE although then past my bedtime and my trading rules prevent me from entering outside LO and NYO KZs

Questions (missed most ICT material - waiting for him release the new videos)
1) is it only the previous day's CDR std deviation high/low that are utilized. ie do you look for confluence with CDRs (or with KSR) from CDRs from several preceding days? How many?
2) my assumption is that Friday's CDR is not used, is that correct? (do not like trading Mondays anyway)
3) how does one address an extreme CDR (56pips), as last night? It seems like an aberration to be filtered out, as was mentioned by a previous poster.
I'm not very familiar with all the CDR concepts I must admit, as I missed a lot of the live seminars as well.
However, sqa did a very fine job in writing out the transcript, and I picked up quite a few valuable bits.

As for the days: ICT recommends to look back 3 days for daytrading, so I monitor the CDR for the last 3 days -> think swing point concept.

With a large CDR like this, I think the asian range comes into play as well.
Take a look, at the 5M GBPUSD, don't you think we will see a nice OTE short scalp? And what will be the perfect entry? The upper part of the CDR?

May I also introduce you to the weekly CDR, have a look at the GBPUSD. I think it will go down to get in sync with the uptrend again today, 11GMT is KEY today, but you might not get a good fill @ 11GMT. Oanda uses spreads up to 30 pips and more during these events I've noticed.
 

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sqa

Village Scribe
On how far back to look at CDRs, there's a few things going on.

Firstly, CDR has the most effect on Cable, Fiber and, I assume, Swiss Franc (I don't look at that pair). It's not that it doesn't have a relationship to the Asian pairs, it's just not as directive. So the previous day's CDR has a massive influence on the first day.

Days 2 & 3 are a little different. The CDR, at the end of it, is a specific Range where money has consolidated. On Trending days, there's a good chance the Low or High of the day is within the CDR. That's when it becomes important on the outer days. Further, there are layers of Order Blocks within the CDR, which can have a pretty big effect.

In one of ICTs recent USD-CAD trade outlines, while he was using Support/Resistance Study, one of the sets of Resistance was a "clean low" 2 days previous.

For news days, just move the CDR ahead 1 hour. Then it should operate okay. For Cable especially, clearing the Top & Bottom of the CDR should happen within 28 hours. It's insanely regular.


Friday is merged with Monday for CDR, but Gap days make things messy. When it doesn't gap, then it's very useful. When it does, I'd just use Monday post-Gap fill. But there's a reason Monday are also, normally, Seek & Destroy days.
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
sqa said:
I do wonder, if we should move the CDR range +1 hour on 2pm EDT news release days? Seems a more accurate understanding of the actual CDR work.
Interesting observation, I will monitor this to see what happens today using this concept
 

Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
For those of the break 1/break 2 and back into an order block believers, have a look at the 5M GBPUSD chart.

Touched a resistance line (weekly CDR) and retraced
broke MS twice
map out the swing points and OTE zones
Map out the Order block

Grab 20 pips
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
All together now: break 1/break 2 and back into an order block.
25 pip stop loss (10 pips below swing low) 1,5 hours before interest rate announcement, anyone?

I will monitor to see if I can see the same structure on the 5Min before going long though ;)
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
Hopiplaka said:
All together now: break 1/break 2 and back into an order block.
25 pip stop loss (10 pips below swing low) 1,5 hours before interest rate announcement, anyone?

I will monitor to see if I can see the same structure on the 5Min before going long though ;)
Reflection zone 0 (200% extension) hit. Bottom CDR. 1Hour Order block in OTE zone.
Stops of yesterday before FOMC cleared.

All in all a good entry to go long @ 1.7105-1.7110
 

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Hopiplaka

My thanks go out to ICT - the life changer
AusDoc said:
Nice read Hopi.

Was just exiting shorts a few pips above there actually. :)
Great trade AusDoc.

Will you take the long setup, or are you sitting on your hands now?
 
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