ICT Homework Thread July 20th - 25th

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rod178

Well-Known Member
foreigner said:
Im not familiar with the next month out analysis but I see bullish divergence in yields and bonds on the ropes. With what ICT said recently about a crash I would guess the dollars going to hell in a hand basket and FX will test all time highs. Thats not to say we cant see lower prices short term, its just a hunch..
Stocks "..going to hell.." would probably result is a higher USD
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
rod178 said:
Stocks "..going to hell.." would probably result is a higher USD
ah yes, it looks like my brain omitted the reference to equities, probably due to confirmation bias against the dollar, thanks for keeping me on my toes Rod.

BTW is that what you see? an equity pump and dump?
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
so my faux pas aside, we could still see yields bounce and bonds break lower based on current divergences?

There goes my confirmation bias again.. :)
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
I mostly use just Market Structure to determine my bias, although bias can change intraday dependent upon PA
 

Kuzia

Well-Known Member
jinirav75 said:
Adding to this

1. US 10 year Futures contract is traded at a higher price than next month out means more buyers in the market = bullish USD
2. Bearish Divergence in UK, German and US 10 year yield - lower yield = bearish foreign currency
3. Bullish divergence in US 10, 5 and 2 year bonds prices. Please see the attachment and hope my understanding is correct. Expert's comments welcome.
After 2 years of looking at yields i realised most of the time divergences just diverge they can do that for 3 months easy and signal no reversal. I just use yields as a whole direction of the market. For me COT more significant if we reach 4 year extremes...
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
Kuzia said:
After 2 years of looking at yields i realised most of the time divergences just diverge they can do that for 3 months easy and signal no reversal. I just use yields as a whole direction of the market. For me COT more significant if we reach 4 year extremes...
I agree Kuz, and I dont normally use this type of analysis anymore Ive been focusing on price action. That said, sometimes divergence is a sign of accumulation/distribution, in this case possible accumulation as the market has been declining since December 13.

If yields start to make higher highs/lows this could signal a turn around or slow down for the next quarter at least.

Lower prices in FX still possible but I would question the motive if I were to accept this divergence;



The main problem with mixing two types of technical analysis is timing. When we throw in our own bias (for whatever reason) it can become a lottery, if we dont know how to apply it. I think that comes with experience.
 

the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
I don't question the validity of deriving forex insight from the bond markets... but I do question the reliability of the tools we use to do it. If I had live feeds, of the quality that I get on my MT4 forex feeds, then I would probably do some bond market analysis.

But then I wonder, I'm already doing so well without ever glancing at a bond market chart, what would I hope to be adding that I don't already have?
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
the golden gun said:
I don't question the validity of deriving forex insight from the bond markets... but I do question the reliability of the tools we use to do it. If I had live feeds, of the quality that I get on my MT4 forex feeds, then I would probably do some bond market analysis.

But then I wonder, I'm already doing so well without ever glancing at a bond market chart, what would I hope to be adding that I don't already have?
Not a lot, and if youve ever compared bond prices over two MT4 feeds you'd know better than to rely on it..

I had Oanda and AVAtrade 10 year t notes side by side, two almost entirely different charts with diverging market structures, even on the daily/weekly time frame!

So when you talk about 'questioning the validity of deriving insight from the bond market' you can say that again, it would be nice to actually see the bond market in the first place!

If anyone knows where it is do let me know?!
 

the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
foreigner said:
Not a lot, and if youve ever compared bond prices over two MT4 feeds you'd know better than to rely on it..

I had Oanda and AVAtrade 10 year t notes side by side, two almost entirely different charts with diverging market structures, even on the daily/weekly time frame!

So when you talk about 'questioning the validity of deriving insight from the bond market' you can say that again, it would be nice to actually see the bond market in the first place!

If anyone knows where it is do let me know?!
Well it's not like reliable feeds don't exist, it's just you have to pay for it.

I believe ICT uses "eSignal". Pricing is in the range of $100's per month, depending on which feeds you're needing, and various exchange fees that get tacked on as well.
 

rod178

Well-Known Member
foreigner said:
..I had Oanda and AVAtrade 10 year t notes side by side, two almost entirely different charts with diverging market structures, even on the daily/weekly time frame!..
It would be an interesting exercise to compare historical Oanda and AVAtrade CFD bond prices to the historical Futures prices. I cannot imagine any valid reason for significant discrepancy. Being a Market Maker is not a valid excuse, although Oanda is well known to widen speads during News announcements, that could be removed for historical comparison.

How do you find AVAtrade, in general?

EDIT: PS AVAtrade spreads rather high (I'm being polite)
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
rod178 said:
I cannot imagine any valid reason for significant discrepancy.
You can't?!

rod178 said:
How do you find AVAtrade, in general?
Market structure was divergent not to mention huge gaps in price, and then theres the spread, or slice as I prefer to call it, Absolutely Despicable (Im being polite)
 

foreigner

Est. 12480 Hours and Counting
the golden gun said:
Well it's not like reliable feeds don't exist, it's just you have to pay for it.
I thought we were talking about MT4? oh wait a minute, we were!

the golden gun said:
If I had live feeds, of the quality that I get on my MT4 forex feeds, then I would probably do some bond market analysis.
 

the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
foreigner said:
I thought we were talking about MT4? oh wait a minute, we were!
MT4 is just a platform that interprets the feed from a server as a chart.
You gotta pay for reliable bond market feeds.
 

sqa

Village Scribe
http://theinnercircletrader.com/Videos/WENT_05.mp4

Direct download link (right-click and Save As... for most)
 

markkus22

Follow your dreams ALWAYS .......
sqa said:
http://theinnercircletrader.com/Videos/WENT_05.mp4

Direct download link (right-click and Save As... for most)
Thnks sqa, but for me is not working, everytime I obtain only a firefox file not an mp4!!
 
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