ICT Homework Thread July 20th - 25th

[the golden gun]

Hi Golden Gun,

I think you mean 0.705 instead of 0.702? Which brings the second reflection to 1.4182?

I can't say it would ever matter in actual trading, but the math says 0.702 is more accurate:

0.618 + 0.786 = 1.404/2 = 0.702

 

[the golden gun]

Let's watch the GBP fall... and remember you could've been in this move at 7090 with a 10 pip stop based on my EMA analysis

I'm revisiting this "controversial" EMA setup to show the explosive potential that I was expecting:

20:1 Reward ratio in 6 days

If you risked 2.5% (that is my default risk btw) then you could have potentially netted a 50% gain from one swing trade.

50%... 1 Trade... let that sink in

 

[AusDoc]

Keep enjoying these down trend OTEs in Cable.

Got a nice kick along with housing data to start, then a surprising bounce from Frankfurt but it soon steadied.

 

[the golden gun]

Keep enjoying these down trend OTEs in Cable.

Got a nice kick along with housing data to start, then a surprising bounce from Frankfurt but it soon steadied.

Absolutely. They really want to slam into that 6840 level with gusto. I love how this is setting up

 

[AusDoc]

Absolutely. They really want to slam into that 6840 level with gusto. I love how this is setting up

Getting there. Into that resistance I mentioned. Here's an update to the earlier daily chart. Could get interesting given the situation you described (end of month, NFP, ...).

 

[Hopiplaka]

Getting there. Into that resistance I mentioned. Here's an update to the earlier daily chart. Could get interesting given the situation you described (end of month, NFP, ...).

The only thing that worries me is following screenshot.

The green rectangle is the weekly order block.
And we reached the STD3 level of the weekly dealer range, it normally does not go much further than STD3.
We might touch previous weeks STD3 @ 1.6850, but I don't know if there is much downside this week.
So closely watch the 15Min swing stops on the short

 

[AusDoc]

So closely watch the 15Min swing stops on the short

Yep, got it covered. Stop now at DS1.

That's a big block you have there. I wouldn't be surprised to see some stalling and then a deep spike formed. With so many people now getting the message that the USD is going skyward it is bound to have a hick-up at least and ruin some plans.

 

[Kuzia]

My 2 Cents on the future of Cable

 

[rod178]

My 2 Cents on the future of Cable

What two MA values are you using?

 

[Kuzia]

What two MA values are you using?

18/40

 

[Hopiplaka]

Yep, got it covered. Stop now at DS1.

That's a big block you have there. I wouldn't be surprised to see some stalling and then a deep spike formed. With so many people now getting the message that the USD is going skyward it is bound to have a hick-up at least and ruin some plans.

Yes, a big block it is
But a few months ago, there was a video where ICT explained the power of the weekly order block. It reversed to the pip.
After watching today's action an the weekly dealer range, I think tomorrow will be an up day.
Both EURUSD and GBPUSD hit the STD3 weekly level, there is divergence and MS is broken to the upside on GBPUSD.
Unless something fundamental changes during the day, I wll be bullish GBPUSD during NFP

 

[AusDoc]

... I think tomorrow will be an up day.
Both EURUSD and GBPUSD hit the STD3 weekly level, there is divergence and MS is broken to the upside on GBPUSD.
Unless something fundamental changes during the day, I wll be bullish GBPUSD during NFP

Actually, I agree with you. I think the expectations for this NFP are factored in and it won't take much to turn this around for at least a breather. However, as always, I prepare based on what analysis and interpretation I make but I trade what I see.

 

[rod178]

18/40

ok - there must be a slight difference between our feeds.

I've actually now come to the conclusion that the 9/20 is my prefered EMA to help ID/Filter trend reversals/continuation, at least for my intraday style of trading It seems to better reflect breaks in Market Structure. I use breaks in LT Swing points on H4 to determine trend change direction.

I remember on old ICT video that stated as such, although he is now teaching the 18/40 in latest video.

 

[the golden gun]

There's just nothing about the daily chart or 4H chart that makes me want to buy the Cable going into NFP.

If, however, there is an exaggerated sell-off on the NFP, might be a pretty good buying opportunity if you're willing to hold into next week.

If it's just a pure up day on the release, you can all be assured that I made no money today lol

edit:
just realized the possibility of a sell-off on the PMI report, which could also setup a buy opp.
Seconding AusDoc's line... "I trade what I see"

 

[rod178]

Picking bottom will give you dirty fingers

 

[rod178]

There's just nothing about the daily chart or 4H chart that makes me want to buy the Cable going into NFP.....

The trouble with taking a position immediately before NFP is the issue of risk definition.
ie how to set a stop when there is always a vastly increased potential for the price to be whipped both ways eg by over half the ADR. Picking the right direction (being optimistic) does not help if one has already been taken out.

Best to wait for the dust to settle.

 

[the golden gun]

The trouble with taking a position immediately before NFP is the issue of risk definition.
ie how to set a stop when there is always a vastly increased potential for the price to be whipped both ways eg by over half the ADR. Picking the right direction (being optimistic) does not help if one has already been taken out.

Best to wait for the dust to settle.

Well there's no dust involved really, just orders being filled. And if the market gets to a price that I want to trade, I'll trade it. NFP moves have lost their punch in recent years, nowadays its the FedSpeak that really gets the markets riled up

 

[rod178]

.. just orders being filled. And if the market gets to a price that I want to trade, I'll trade it...

the "Market" often uses major News as a liquidity tool. I'm not much interested in being eaten.

 

[the golden gun]

the "Market" often uses major News as a liquidity tool. I'm not much interested in being eaten.

I know how you feel, but you got to BE a shark if you want to eat like a shark

showing my Cable analysis for today. I've talked too much today already, so I'll just let it be what it is:

 

[rod178]

I know how you feel, but you got to BE a shark if you want to eat like a shark....

In the open ocean none of us are sharks - check out my new Avatar