Official Rep
We might get a fast run up for these Monday highs, Aussie is on a mission against the Dollars move, i wonder. Not a happy buyer for Fiber & EURJPY though

See the POR Fiber is bouncing off? from the 3rd Feb
or the daily block, which ever way you look at it, i guess



Well-Known Member
It is said that a good tradie never blames the tools. Perhaps we could say the same about traders. Of course, having good quality and accurate tools and knowing how and when to apply them can make a big difference.

Here is an example of the difference in tool and chart type performance. Both show a divergence, signalling a coming bounce (at least). Look at the difference.

Evidently a sizable option position at 1.3150 was being protected. You can see where the volume came in to do the job. A successful price level defence for now it seems, but after option expiry ... we shall see.


Well-Known Member

Source, with analysis of this chart:


Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Source, with analysis of this chart:
Oops.... then, 10 minutes before any scheduled news, this leaked:

ECB sources are reporting that ABS purchases are on the table
Programme would be worth up to €500 million and run over 3 years
Could start this year
EUR/USD dropped to 1.3118 on the headline

So much for bucking the trend. ;)

Addit: Milan Cutkovic ‏@MilanCutkovic

This move in #EUR rather a result of thin liquidity I think, why would anyone be surprised by the ECB discussing ABS purchases...


Well-Known Member
Only Germany can save Europe now
The European Central Bank ramped up its battle against deflation overnight; however, without help from Germany it is a battle that the ECB is unlikely to win -- at least not anytime soon. Despite the actions by the ECB and strong comments from president Mario Draghi, it will be fiscal rather than monetary policy that will eventually turn things around.

The ECB surprised markets last night by cutting its three interest rate levers by a further 10 basis points and announcing two new stimulus programs for buying asset-backed securities and covered bonds issued by eurozone banks. These new programs will begin in October 2014 and details will be known closer to that date.

The ECB cut the deposit rate, applied on excess reserves placed at the ECB by banks, to -0.2 per cent. It also cut its main refinancing rate to 0.05 per cent and the marginal lending rate to 0.3 per cent.

After cutting rates in June, it was widely expected that the ECB would stay put this month. With rates already so low there was naturally the belief that they couldn’t really drop much further. Draghi stressed that this was as low as rates would go.

“Now we are at the lower bound,” Draghi said.

Are the new programs likely to help? If they can grease the wheels of eurozone credit markets and direct credit towards productive businesses then yes, they will help a bit. But we shouldn’t expect the rate cuts to make much difference.

Remarkably the real interest rate in the eurozone -- that is the interest rate adjusted for annual inflation -- is actually higher than it is in Australia and much higher than in either the UK or the US. The cut in September is simply offsetting the recent decline in inflation, rather than providing additional stimulus.

That really highlights the ECB’s predicament: it has largely exhausted its conventional policy options, and asset purchases and quantitative easing -- while somewhat effective -- don’t really provide much bang for their buck. Put another way: monetary policy just isn’t working.

The best way to increase inflation and boost lending to the private sector is to increase domestic demand directly. Unfortunately monetary policy is not the most efficient mechanism to get this done and steps by the ECB -- no matter how well intentioned -- will provide only minor support to an economic region that needs so much more.

The eurozone recovery will only begin to gain traction once the bigger eurozone economies begin to use fiscal policy to support domestic demand. To a large degree that requires Germany to step up and provide genuine economic leadership for the first time in years.

Draghi said as much during his Jackson Hole speech during August.

“It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy,” Draghi said. “I believe there is scope for this while taking into account our specific initial conditions and legal constraints.”

German authorities -- who find themselves in their strongest fiscal position since reunification in 1990 -- have shown little interest in supporting the eurozone recovery. At this point their obsession with fiscal constraint is not only undermining their own economy -- which is at risk of a triple dip recession -- but also undermining the entire eurozone recovery.

The International Monetary Fund also believes that German Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to do more to support growth, noting that Germany could finance additional investment of “up to 0.5 per cent of GDP a year over four years … without violating fiscal rules”.

As it stands investment in Germany has dropped to just 17 per cent of GDP -- well below the average of 21 per cent in other developed countries – that if left unchecked will eventually begin to weigh on the famed German efficiency.

Of course this need not be a selfless act by the Germans, they would benefit as well. Faced with some truly nasty demographics and a rapidly ageing population, they could use low lending rates to fix their crumbling infrastructure and ensure their economy is well-placed to meet the needs of an older population.

Monetary policy by itself will not be enough to put this recovery on a sustainable path. Fiscal policy needs to support activity and that must start with Germany. Real economic leadership is needed and we cannot expect Draghi to do it all by himself. Monetary policy is not the silver-bullet but combined with some fiscal expansion it might just be sufficient to get the eurozone economy back on track.


Village Scribe
"Lost Decade", here it comes! ;)

More seriously, Bad Debts have to be retired. You can't throw money at badly misaligned previous spending. It doesn't correct the problem. This is exactly what Japan tried to do, and they'll probably come out better because all of their Lending is held by the Japanese.

Or, maybe a good way to put it: You can't help a "debt diabetic" with more debt. Bad & too much Debt is *still* the problem. Adding more (it's already back to pre-crash levels) in the Eurozone isn't going to solve much of anything.


Well-Known Member
I was short fibre at around 1.2875, closed it for a small loss because I didn't like the price action. I have pending sell orders both for fibre and cable.

Update: Now looking I can see fibre going my direction but I don't care, I think I made that right decision because I had rushed into that trade.


Well-Known Member
Just an update on above here is where i'm at. Those losses, after commission and the partial profits leaves me at break even. So worst is i'll be at BE this week. I don't like price action and feel it will hit my stop, but i'm sticking to the plan.