EURUSD


Fuzzbuggy

Well-Known Member
Boom... EURUSD just hit a level of interest. Lets see what happens here.

Sitting on my hands. I'm done trading this week...

I should be more specific: Low weekly candle of 4/11/2012 @ 1.27087. The last 2 weeks in the euro has been dancing around the OHLC of that candle. A whole new dimension!
 

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jack

Administrator
Staff member


Monthly chart.. we've had 9 months in a row of closing down, and still about 2 weeks of this month that could see us close down again. Insane.

The Euro is still 'new', relatively speaking, and in the past we've had a few 4, 5, and 6 months in a row of downward moves like this which were followed by rallies that retraced ~50% before continuing to consolidate and break down. Not that I'm calling a bottom or anything.. as the economic reasons we're this low is a bit different than the past dips.

I'm considering no-leverage (1:1) long on EUR indirectly by buying up some EUR demonstrated assets (defensive large cap stocks in economies like Germany, etc.. or possibly just a large cap ETF..) If the EUR itself loses value to reasons outside of my target country's economy, the equity side of the trade should hedge this out a bit by inflating in price (...a recent example of this would be how the Nikki went on one hell of a bull run when Japan announced trillions in stimulus which caused the JPY to fall in value, nixing out most of the equity's gains after currency risk was factored in.) I'm still working out a few details of course... just something I'm leaning toward as a position trade over the next few months.
 

Computater707

Well-Known Member
Jack said:


Monthly chart.. we've had 9 months in a row of closing down, and still about 2 weeks of this month that could see us close down again. Insane.

The Euro is still 'new', relatively speaking, and in the past we've had a few 4, 5, and 6 months in a row of downward moves like this which were followed by rallies that retraced ~50% before continuing to consolidate and break down. Not that I'm calling a bottom or anything.. as the economic reasons we're this low is a bit different than the past dips.

I'm considering no-leverage (1:1) long on EUR indirectly by buying up some EUR demonstrated assets (defensive large cap stocks in economies like Germany, etc.. or possibly just a large cap ETF..) If the EUR itself loses value to reasons outside of my target country's economy, the equity side of the trade should hedge this out a bit by inflating in price (...a recent example of this would be how the Nikki went on one hell of a bull run when Japan announced trillions in stimulus which caused the JPY to fall in value, nixing out most of the equity's gains after currency risk was factored in.) I'm still working out a few details of course... just something I'm leaning toward as a position trade over the next few months.
I am not familiar with non US equity option products, so this may not be possible, but are LEAP options offered- particularly on the ETF? Just an idea from a nonprofessional struggling trader.
 

jack

Administrator
Staff member
Computater707 said:
I am not familiar with non US equity option products, so this may not be possible, but are LEAP options offered- particularly on the ETF? Just an idea from a nonprofessional struggling trader.
There are, but as for how liquid and actively traded such products are in Europe.. I have no idea.

Plus, I can't exactly say LEAPs or options fit with my idea here.. unless you use them only up to the exposure your account would buy in the underlying and not much more..

The key take away was the non-leveraged position I mentioned (1:1).. employing leaps only serve to add leverage at the cost of additional spread, liquidity, and a small bit of vol/time presidium. I'm not looking to go ham on this.. as it's just a position play (meaning something I can sit on for months and not really fret about, akin to investing more so than trading.. really just trying to take advantage of some currency risk to juice the equity exposure I already take on...)

A broker like Interactive Brokers has direct access to the Xtera exchange in Germany.

Anyhoo.. see the attached charts of the 1 month and 6 month prices on the DAX vs EURUSD... It's not a perfect inverse correlation, but the relationship has been there for a while..

Again, I'm not sold on this myself.. I'm just considering it and researching a bit to see if my idea makes sense.
 

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JohnD

Active Member
I don't know if it's OK me posting this here, but I think I'd be great if you could give your opinion.

I don't think we've seen the bottom of the pair, of course, but I see a good opportunity for a retracement-based setup. What I've marked is an H4 bearish order block that falls within OTE levels on the weekly range. I've also marked liquidity levels on the way there.

I think a retracement to these levels could fuel a push downwards past today's low and into the higher timeframe bullish order block we're yet to reach (1.08 on D1).

Or, you know, it could just keep dropping like it has all week.

 

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jack

Administrator
Staff member
Greek vote is in, "NO"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-05/tsipras-turns-tables-on-europe-in-austerity-referendum-triumph

EUR/USD gaps down ~100 pips.

Let's see just how priced in this referendum was..
 

SLT

Official GDayFX.com Rep
Good old price action is all we need

30 pips out of Asia low off Daily Order Block reaction using OB confluence

Precision at market trading from HTF to LTF entries
 

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