EUR / CHF

Computater707

Well-Known Member
I wanted to share some information that I believe will provide traders using ICT's strategies some great trading opportunities.

My First factoid. I was notified that my US based brokers were cutting the leverage on EURCHF. It has been reduced from 50:1 to 20:1. I suspect that this is to discourage trading on this currency and making it less expensive for SNB to hold a lock on the EURCHF at 1.20 because I remembered this:

Second Factoid. During "the Euro economic crisis" in 2011 the EURCHF dropped to almost 1.00 before rebounding to about 1.24. Because the Eurozone is Switzerland's largest trading partner the SNB drew a line at 1.200 and promised to keep that exchange rate with Europe so they could defend their economy.

SNB press release
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20110906/source/pre_20110906.en.pdf

They began their lock in June of 2012 and it came off in August.

As an aspiring trader and student of the markets during this time period it began to feel like pairs I was observing and trading were being affected by this lock. I eventually found articles like this one that explained what was happening

ttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-09/chart-day-how-swiss-national-bank-went-all-three-times-and-counting

The EURCHF is in a down trend and may approach 1.200 around the end of OCT. While I don't think that this pair is a good one to trade- I am going to be on the look out for even greater opportunities on the pairs I do watch. I have included some simple studies on the EURUSD vs EURCHF vs USDCHF during the lock. You might want to compare price action of your favorite pairs to see if they appear to have had even greater swings during this period.
 

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jack

Administrator
Staff member
This thing is freaking scary to trade... Even when sizing down to compensate for extra vol. :S


(short)
 

helly

Member
Euro / CHF closed trade with a percentage change -0.05%.
The medium-term scenario of the Euro against the Swiss Franc ratification of the negative trend of the curve. However, the analysis of the short-graph shows a loosening of the bearish phase preparatory to an increase towards the first area of resistance seen at 1.0714. Support at 1.0695. Any positive elements support the achievement of a new top saw in 1.0733 area.
 

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the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
helly said:
Euro / CHF closed trade with a percentage change -0.05%.
The medium-term scenario of the Euro against the Swiss Franc ratification of the negative trend of the curve. However, the analysis of the short-graph shows a loosening of the bearish phase preparatory to an increase towards the first area of resistance seen at 1.0714. Support at 1.0695. Any positive elements support the achievement of a new top saw in 1.0733 area.
how did you trade this bro?
 
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