Decided to add some thinking, i hate posts that say I'd do this or that or have done such and such without adding context of thought.
Right now GBP is at a crossroads - Brexit is confirmed and there has been a bounce since it became apparent that the Tories would win - well actually that bounce happened Nov 8th.
The reason for that date is still in my notes - "First reports that Farage is buckling" is all that I wrote. Nigel Farage had issued an ultimatum to Boris Johnson on Nov 1st that if the PM would not enter an 'alliance' with him he, Farage, would field opposition candidates, 500 of them. He enlisted the help of Pres Trump who tweeted that Johnson and Farage would be 'an unstoppable force'.
It didn't work and one week later Farage began to backtrack - that was the signal for GBP buyers.
The tech level was 1.2780 - handy for the bots.
That's where price is coming from - now that the politics are over then in come the numbers... and they are bumpy.
Jan 2020 - and first up cpi - stated aim of boe is 2% - the market well aware of possible miss on anticipated 1.5% - the BRC have been posting all sorts of tales of woe.
Then came Retail sales - another miss, the BRC posted one week beforehand that 2019 was worst year etc etc - so a miss almost certain - and it was.
All on the lead up to end of Jan and interest rates - vote count already had 2 stating cut, then another dissenter added his voice last weekend in the tabloid press - typical BOE - always signal well in advance - no shocks for the market - stiff upper lip etc.
So what did the market do this week to GBP? - they bought it of course - how can you sell something already well sold, i mean profit comes from selling high does it not.
So reasonable chance that BOE will cut Jan 30th and also reasonable chance that wise guys will have created a nice little sell position - if the BOE bottle and don't cut then the sell accumulation will be dumped in one fell swoop and likely switch to buys.
There you go - my thinking dark side of the chart - coupled of course with some weird indicator or meter called thinking 1.0