Been following this pair for a while. While initially I was looking for a place to go long since it reached new lows, it's clear to me now that the down trend will only continue further. I read a few articles stating most of their businesses in expect to see the pair reach parity. Just wanted to ask what the consensus was among my fellow traders of this being a likelihood or not? Oh, and this is my first post. Nice to meet you all. 8)
AUD/NZD: Parity or no?
- Thread starter TopGear
- Start date
TopGear said:
Hello and welcome!
It's a hard call, we saw a closer move toward parity in January, so if we go back down near $1.05 perhaps the 2nd time we'll have to pay attention to how the market handles that price.
Being near parity, or more specifically 5-10 cents above it, is nothing new for AUD/NZD, we touched down here before in 2004 and 2005.. but it's good to note that both times were brief before pushing back up. That's not to say the same thing will happen this time, it just makes me think any price action we see below $1.05 will be quite interesting thanks to price memory and clustered orders (stops/blocks/etc..) all tuned into these price levels.
Thanks for the reply! I'm currently short, expecting the pair to finally break under the 1.054 area that has held the line so far. I just feel that given what I've been reading so far on the two economy's that NZ is set to continue to outperform AU at least for the next few months.
On the CoT Data, Commercials are running up Shorts on the NZD and rapidly unwinding their Long position on the AUD.
They seem to be expecting the NZD to drop sooner than the AUD, but it's hard to say what will happen. Though it violated a pretty big monthly Order Block last week, so it has the legs to make a run at staying below 1.0580. That's where the Order Block existed, and held, from 2005.
Still, if you're *in* a short position already, there's a lot of money likely to be made for the next few weeks. Though I'm expecting Gday to pop in and say it's compressing into a C-wave take off from wherever it lands at the bottom next.
They seem to be expecting the NZD to drop sooner than the AUD, but it's hard to say what will happen. Though it violated a pretty big monthly Order Block last week, so it has the legs to make a run at staying below 1.0580. That's where the Order Block existed, and held, from 2005.
Still, if you're *in* a short position already, there's a lot of money likely to be made for the next few weeks. Though I'm expecting Gday to pop in and say it's compressing into a C-wave take off from wherever it lands at the bottom next.
Yeah well well, lucky i found this post, lol
I just had a look at the Aussie Kiwi chart, and also noting on 7am Thursday Sydney time, RBNZ will be announcing there rate decision! if they hike rates, then price will be out of control for a bit, i would recommend sitting on the fence with this pair into next week, and seeing where price heads from here, or what price shapes up for us. Even though it is running out of steam a bit, price could either drop fast or spike fast putting a new top in place. this is why we need to sit it out, otherwise its a pot luck trade. Once the event is over, we could have a chance. I would like to see another top form myself, see what happens anyway. This is definitely a good pair to watch in this 4 hour chart atm, time to hunt. If a sell signal appeared, and they did hike Kiwi rates, that would be game on, if you caught it before hand, you would be way in front of the crowd
There could be a good opportunity in NZDJPY to
picture perfect elliottwave patterns
I just had a look at the Aussie Kiwi chart, and also noting on 7am Thursday Sydney time, RBNZ will be announcing there rate decision! if they hike rates, then price will be out of control for a bit, i would recommend sitting on the fence with this pair into next week, and seeing where price heads from here, or what price shapes up for us. Even though it is running out of steam a bit, price could either drop fast or spike fast putting a new top in place. this is why we need to sit it out, otherwise its a pot luck trade. Once the event is over, we could have a chance. I would like to see another top form myself, see what happens anyway. This is definitely a good pair to watch in this 4 hour chart atm, time to hunt. If a sell signal appeared, and they did hike Kiwi rates, that would be game on, if you caught it before hand, you would be way in front of the crowd
There could be a good opportunity in NZDJPY to
picture perfect elliottwave patterns
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Glad you found your way here, Gday! I was planning on posting in your other Aussie thread but this works even better. So while I went long at the bottom of the range a couple weeks ago I ended up pulling out prematurely, and I missed almost this entire up move waiting for my sell orders to be triggered. I used the Fib levels from ICT's Scout Sniper Guide series to go short. So I know you use Elliott Wave and you also use ICT's techniques, but I remember ICT saying he doesn't subscribe to the Elliott Wave theory, so which techniques are you using exactly? BTW, I am a novice trader, I know what Elliott Wave Theory is but have absolutely no eye for recognizing the pattern other than in its most blatant form. Also, parity or no?
TopGear said:
There is a natural ongoing momentum that occurs in the market cycles, that can be labeled. I use ICT and Elliottwave theory, quite often both concepts are telling the same story when it comes to market structure building up or selling off. using indicator divergence with ending trends can also be an advantage when you get used to how price behaves, especially
in the pattern it is creating. There are different patterns or cycles that are created that can tell you what could be happening next. Studying price action and how price behaves is a key element to trading, it takes a lot of time in the charts and a lot of practice to start seeing what is going on day by day week by week month by month, so there are opportunities short term and long term. As far as parity goes, i could not call that right now, due to experience one can think price is going to go somewhere and then it does the exact opposite for a while, then goes where you thought it would some time later, throwing you out of wack in price and mind. If i am ever going to make a big call like that, i need to know when i am wrong and accept it. Dont marry a trade. When i take a trade i watch what price is telling me as the trade progresses, telling me weather it is time to get out, or hold. This game is a one step at a time business, and waiting around for the right moment is also key.
I chose to learn elliottwave before ICT concepts, now i use both sometimes separately and sometimes not. Starting with H4 charts narrowing down to 5 and 1 minute charts is something i do, looking for trades
