XAU / USD


sqa

Village Scribe
Looks to be in a "Sell Program" since the March High (goes down Fast, goes up Slowly), but it's hovering over the 50% retracement level. Is there COT data to help out on this one?
 

SLT

Official GDayFX.com Rep
sqa said:
Looks to be in a "Sell Program" since the March High (goes down Fast, goes up Slowly), but it's hovering over the 50% retracement level. Is there COT data to help out on this one?
Yeah, i had trouble stuffing around with barchart before. i will have another look though.
I tend to sit on the fence when price is ready to explode out of these consolidations, then wait for the signals. If the longer term pattern plays out, price could cross this current level 2 times before plunging lower, like you said, sell model.
 

sqa

Village Scribe
From ICT's work, as "Sell Program" is when the Commercials have a multi-year Net Short position, and they start driving the price lower. The most notable part is that "Selling" is far faster than "Buying" during the fundamental aspect. That's what I meant by that.

It could be in a Market Maker Sell Model at the moment, but I'll be honest about that teaching. I "get" it, but I can't yet "predict" with it. It's a good hindsight analysis tool, for me, but I've tried to use it for forward thinking, but I just, of yet, don't see it. So not sure.

Gold is approaching the current Mining Cost, so that might be playing havoc on the Fundamental Side.

At the same time, I don't see the dollar gaining huge value (stopping printing shouldn't run things up that much, and that's still some months off), so I'd be really surprised to see Gold plunge. Especially with a lot of countries Buying right now.
 

dentist007

Well-Known Member
outlook for next week
we have a recoil in a downtrend with some areas to watch
trend res/red cluster at about 1268 area
horizontal res at 1258 area
trend /green and horizontal supp at 1248 area
then we have horizontal supp going down to 1240 area
look for signals to trade in those areas on a lower timeframe
these areas can get broken...if big news
 

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