USDX - Alternate forecast

Discussion in 'Interactive Trading' started by SLT, Apr 24, 2014.

  1. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Fiber rallied
     

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  2. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Re: USDX

    USDX
     

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  3. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Re: USDX

    USDX - would not be surprised if the Dollar breaks last months high sooner or later
     

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  4. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    Can you define "sooner or later" Dan?
     
  5. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Re: USDX

    Lol, i'll take a stab in the dark, and say two weeks
     
  6. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    Fair enough, so timing isn't a strong factor in your anticipated move. What is the basis for your view that the PMH is on borrowed time?
     
  7. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    [​IMG]

    So, low inflation means no need to raise interest rates. No increase in interest rates means less demand for the dollar. Less demand for the dollar means nothing really drives its value higher or sustains any rise. Dollar slides again. Hmmm... could be a short ride for the bulls. But since just about any move in the USDX changes several other currencies, it will be good for the manipulators speculators. It is the off season after all, anyone can play.
     
  8. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Re: USDX

    Looking at the bigger picture, "if" the Dollar does find more support
     

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  9. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    Yep, that's bigger alright... ;)

    Actually on a weekly chart that's a whopping OTE Zone. Does the width you have drawn imply an estimate of timing based on fib of time or anything else or is it just designed to show the price, not the time? Are you familiar with Robert Miner's work on time for instance?
     
  10. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    Here is an excerpt from brushTurkey (Clifford Bennett's newsletter) today:

    My emphasis added:

    Even though Clifford is an economist, I like the guy's thinking. He is refreshingly happy to be a maverick who does his own thinking and he regularly lampoons as mindless gibberish the outdated and disconnected ideas sprouted by his colleagues. I guess, like me, that makes him an inside outsider.

    Anyway, I happen to agree with his analysis of the USD. Up for a while on the increasingly positive "surprises" in US data and then down in a gradual but significant way as US smart money goes overseas to make greater returns (and, oddly enough, to find greater safety).

    Just remember that while it's fine, even helpful actually, to have an informed and reasoned view of fundamentals, you may invest on that basis but you cannot effectively trade on just the fundamentals.
     
  11. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    [​IMG]
    Source: Colin Twiggs, Trading Diary, incrediblecharts.com, 31 July 2014
     
  12. AusDoc

    AusDoc Well-Known Member

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    Re: USDX

    Interesting use of multiple stochastics for MTF cycle analysis.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3wyyXCAwsI

    [mod edit: fixed youtube link - Jack]
     
  13. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Re: USDX

    had a feeling those clean highs would be taken out! Boom
     
  14. SLT

    SLT Official GDayFX.com Rep

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    Looking at this, here is Elliottwaves forecast, entering an impulsive break to the upside, though i have to wonder if the liquidity pool is taken out before the Dollar rallies stronger again, could equities and the Dollar fall together?
    here is my alternate view on the Green Back

    If the major "1" high is broken, we could be in for some serious Dollar strength
    which would put Fiber's forecast to Parity in play
     

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