USDX - Alternate forecast

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USDX - would not be surprised if the Dollar breaks last months high sooner or later


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GdayFx said:
Lol, i'll take a stab in the dark, and say two weeks

Fair enough, so timing isn't a strong factor in your anticipated move. What is the basis for your view that the PMH is on borrowed time?


So, low inflation means no need to raise interest rates. No increase in interest rates means less demand for the dollar. Less demand for the dollar means nothing really drives its value higher or sustains any rise. Dollar slides again. Hmmm... could be a short ride for the bulls. But since just about any move in the USDX changes several other currencies, it will be good for the manipulators speculators. It is the off season after all, anyone can play.

Looking at the bigger picture, "if" the Dollar does find more support


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GdayFx said:
Looking at the bigger picture...

Yep, that's bigger alright... ;)

Actually on a weekly chart that's a whopping OTE Zone. Does the width you have drawn imply an estimate of timing based on fib of time or anything else or is it just designed to show the price, not the time? Are you familiar with Robert Miner's work on time for instance?

Here is an excerpt from brushTurkey (Clifford Bennett's newsletter) today:

My emphasis added:

My mention yesterday of watching for the Euro to have a renewed period of strength remains valid and endorsed. It is always a little difficult choosing short term entry into a macro scenario, and in this case the simple logic of buy the US dollar on the basis of strong US data, will win out for a period. It is when we reach the point of everyone who wants to buy the dollar having done so, combined with fresh foreign investment waves out of the US, that the US dollar will decline to a significant degree yet again.

The overall down move in the value of the US dollar is of course supported by the “strong dollar policy” being in fact the "orderly decline of the dollar policy”, continuing trade and fiscal deficits, and near zero yield on holding the currency. It is true that the strong rest of world economy will be feeding significant revenue streams into US corporates, but the math still favours a lower US dollar I believe. Post the initial buy USD on good US data period of course.

Even though Clifford is an economist, I like the guy's thinking. He is refreshingly happy to be a maverick who does his own thinking and he regularly lampoons as mindless gibberish the outdated and disconnected ideas sprouted by his colleagues. I guess, like me, that makes him an inside outsider.

Anyway, I happen to agree with his analysis of the USD. Up for a while on the increasingly positive "surprises" in US data and then down in a gradual but significant way as US smart money goes overseas to make greater returns (and, oddly enough, to find greater safety).

Just remember that while it's fine, even helpful actually, to have an informed and reasoned view of fundamentals, you may invest on that basis but you cannot effectively trade on just the fundamentals.

Interesting use of multiple stochastics for MTF cycle analysis.

[mod edit: fixed youtube link - Jack]
Looking at this, here is Elliottwaves forecast, entering an impulsive break to the upside, though i have to wonder if the liquidity pool is taken out before the Dollar rallies stronger again, could equities and the Dollar fall together?
here is my alternate view on the Green Back

If the major "1" high is broken, we could be in for some serious Dollar strength
which would put Fiber's forecast to Parity in play


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