New ICT journey

[d16y]

Hello all, new student here to ICT. I am 23 and have been trading in the equities/options & a bit of futures before. They are doing well but I wish to improve upon them and also diversify with FX. Very passionate about trading, been studying it ever since high school. Took a break from university after first year and still on that break and probably not going to continue. The market is my arena.

Sincere gratitude to Michael Huddleston for sharing this life changing material freely. If you happen across this thread, I will be sending you a success story that you ask for in a few years time. I have absolutely no doubt that I will "make it", just a matter of time.

I will be sharing my journey here on this thread, I am very new to ICT material so please all feedback is welcome and appreciated. At the start of this thread I've only been studying for one month and gone through WENT, TPD, Sniper, Precision series only once, and quite passively. I watched them without note-taking and much studying to warm up to the concepts. Next I will be going them all several more times and more indepth to absorb them. Not sure if I should start MM series or really go through everything again..I will decide soon.

In the mean time, I have started monitoring the live market and will post some things I see. I also put a $100 into the account and will be real money-demoing as I feel it gives slightly more emotions/closer to real trading and better representation of real live spreads. (I have a suspicion that brokers give you better spreads in pure demo accounts). I won't really be position sizing yet, just a 0.01 micro for every trade.

Thanks for reading.

 

[sqa]

Have you gotten through the first 6 videos here: http://theinnercircletrader.com/Videos.htm

People seem to miss that one, which is bad, as it contains the single best video he's produced.

You'll need to take notes (either physical or computer based) before it starts to sink in.

Also, welcome!

 

[d16y]

Thanks sqa for the welcome, yes I have gone through those videos, forgot to mention it.

Here was my first trade trying to follow most of ICT concepts. Please see attachments.

-Pound was in sell mode bias with 9/18 EMA on daily both down.
-High was formed on Tuesday. Short term market structure was UP, this broke when the big double top was broken so I started looking for shorts.
-Found a OTE of previous swing along with previous 15M -OB overlapping.
-Setup occured around London Open, with entry a bit after during London session. Thursday trade, not expecting too much.
-Also noticed after I took the trade that pattern looked like a MM sell model - maybe suggesting a more intermediate term target would be below the previous base ?

I used a 30 pip SL and ended up with 89 pips of profit. I couldn't position size with 0.01 size. I moved to breakeven after 127% extension and after hitting 200% extension target right around London close I trailed it tightly and got stopped later.

One thing that I wasn't sure was the GBP vs EUR divergence. Does the divergence suggest that EUR was weaker than GBP and that I should be looking for shorts there ? But looking at how it played out , it was pound short and euro long. Or should I not be paying too much attention to this daily divergence for a short term swing trade ?

I will try to post more closer to real time in the futureafter my account dosn't need approval by moderator to post.

Thanks for reading any feedback will be much appreciated.

 

[sqa]

SMT Divergence on the Daily would be important for trades framed on the... Daily Time Frame.

Intraday, you'd want the H1 or M15 Chart divergence.

Post #6 and on won't need a moderation.

I'm impressed you saw the start of a MM Model formation. It's one thing I don't normally see until hindsight. (I trade Yen as a primary, so that has something to do with it) See ICT's video from yesterday on his layout of the MM Sell model.

 

[d16y]

SMT Divergence on the Daily would be important for trades framed on the... Daily Time Frame.

Intraday, you'd want the H1 or M15 Chart divergence.

Post #6 and on won't need a moderation.

I'm impressed you saw the start of a MM Model formation. It's one thing I don't normally see until hindsight. (I trade Yen as a primary, so that has something to do with it) See ICT's video from yesterday on his layout of the MM Sell model.

Ooh that makes sense on the Divergence, thank you. ICT's latest market review he just did it on the 15M chart and showed the higher high on the USDX vs the equal/slightly lower highs on the GBP.

Nah I didn't see the start of the MM model, I noticed it a bit after the consolidation formed at the grey area/top and started falling.

Took another trade today. Same premise as yesterday, being Friday I expected it to be a very short term trade. Ended up with 47 pips after trailing stop down. It actually hit 200% extension and reversed there but I couldn't partial profit take/split gains so trailed stop down.

Also noticed something interesting with prices. I compared my live account of one broker to another broker's demo feed, most stuff looked same except in the broker I had a live short on, check out the huge spike upwards where it didn't exist in another demo account. Everything else looks the same..is this broker manipulation trying to trigger my stop ?

 

[scott]

i had that same trade but didn't notice the mm profile, good eye.

 

[sqa]

That feed differential: what Time-zone is your broker? That could be a roll-over spike. They happen when liquidity dries up.

 

[the golden gun]

Also noticed something interesting with prices. I compared my live account of one broker to another broker's demo feed, most stuff looked same except in the broker I had a live short on, check out the huge spike upwards where it didn't exist in another demo account. Everything else looks the same..is this broker manipulation trying to trigger my stop ?

The broker on the right is the reliable one. The thing is, as an ICT student, you wouldn't want your stop placed right at a perfect OB entry
In fact, if you did see that OB and placed a limit order... broker on the right would've had you in... broker on the left... well you'd be left high and dry

no sqa it wasn't rollover, it was a USD advance GDP release.

 

[rod178]

The read issue is whether or not it is 'wise' to take such a trade (ie later spike) so close to the end of the week, LO entry at the ltest on a Friday imho. “Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.”

PS the feed is GMT+2, below is the M1, which shows the spike

 

[rod178]

M15 image. The purpose of the PA was to take out and.or trap Shorts and Longs


note that it reversed back up off previous Fri close, also H4 bullish block. A good place to TP, otherwise trapped over the weekend or stopped out

Additionally, Shorting into the upper Bullish block on Friday afternoon probably not a good idea.

 

[rod178]

H4 image of above

 

[Computater707]

Also noticed something interesting with prices. I compared my live account of one broker to another broker's demo feed, most stuff looked same except in the broker I had a live short on, check out the huge spike upwards where it didn't exist in another demo account. Everything else looks the same..is this broker manipulation trying to trigger my stop ?

Out of curiosity I looked for the same bar with the two live brokers I have. Forex.com had the same difference between live and demo that you show. FXCM had the same wicked candle on both live and demo as the live. I think it was a feed problem on my forex.com demo since three other accounts showed it.

I don't think it was the broker manipulating. In my opinion it was expected market maker price action as they widened the dealing range from about 32 pips to about 53pips hitting 127 extensions above and below with the increased money flow of the New York Open. Then pull back 80 to 90% to an OTE as they get ready to re-price to another dealing range. I think ICT talks about this large pull back in at least one of his videos.

I included a screen shot showing what I meant about widening. I have observed that the 127 extension is a likely retracement point and head fake reversal level. I try to place my entries and stops so a 30 pip stop is outside a 127 pull back extension (perhaps around 138) as well as on the other side of a significant figure, S/R, Order Block and or pivot.

After I wrote this I watched ICT's latest video where he covers this dealing range action. I think you will see what I mean.

 

[d16y]

Thanks guys for clarification, the one without the long tail is Forex.com.

I just entered a trade. At the end of the ideal NY time. Expecting continuation of London move.

 

[d16y]

M15 image. The purpose of the PA was to take out and.or trap Shorts and Longs


note that it reversed back up off previous Fri close, also H4 bullish block. A good place to TP, otherwise trapped over the weekend or stopped out

Additionally, Shorting into the upper Bullish block on Friday afternoon probably not a good idea.

Thanks for that, very helpful. I wasn't aware of the Bullish OB. I entered during London and was expecting a more scalp type of trade so I still think that there was enough pips to be made before any form of support.

 

[d16y]

Thanks guys for clarification, the one without the long tail is Forex.com.

I just entered a trade. At the end of the ideal NY time. Expecting continuation of London move.

So the trade moved 55 pips in my favor pretty fast, reaching first 127% TP. Now if I was trading bigger size I would certainly take some profits here on split gains. My question is - after I take my partial profits, where should the stop go ?

Normally I would follow ICT's trailing stop of high of previous 2 swing/pivot points + 10 pips, but in this situation there is no pivot points. There are none on the 5M TF as well, so should I go down to 1M TF and trail stop there ? Or should I just leave it BE until next TP objective is achieved - but that is leaving 50+ pips of open profit on the table.

 

[matty44]

Hey D16y,

I'm in that same trade (LC continuation trade). I have my stop just above the swing low you can see in the attached chart. Ya know, Michael usually recommends leaving your stop at your entry point (assuming its already moved 30 pips in your favor) for the entire day until you close the trade. This way it allows for large retracements, like a NYO set up to continue the move started in LO. I'm not sure what he would recommend for a LC trade.

And in case you or anyone else is interested....this trade was a great example of SMT divergence, both USDX and correlated pair. I slept through my alarm and only got up in time for the LC session. Got in just below the 79% retracement, and I'm looking for the triple bottom formed earlier today to be taken out for my TP. See below pics....

 

[d16y]

Thanks matty. I probably can't take it psychologically to keep stop at BE after moving 60 pips in my favor. It will be easier when I have bigger size that allows to split it.

I will also be monitoring SMT divergences now

 

[d16y]

We're at multi year extreme for dollar index's commercial net positions. Actually we're at the most extreme we've ever been historically as far as COT data goes. Maybe looking at a intermediate term top in the dollar in the months ahead ?

 

[d16y]

Let's see how this SMT divergence play out on the 3 indices representing equities on the daily..Nasdaq made lower high while other 2 higher high. Seems to work well in the bonds.

Just paper trading..Shorting the ETF at close price on Friday @ 103.13 via QQQ etf. Stop will be point where the lower high is negated, 104.59.

 

[d16y]

Shorting the Pound in NYO, anticipating continuing move from London.