ICT Style nightly review

[matty44]

Hey guys, I'm relatively new to FXGears, but been following ICT for a while now. I've posted a bit in other threads, but thought it might be best to start my own. I'd like to have a place where people can post what they are anticipating for the next day, based on ICTs methods. I think this is good practice to force yourself to get down on "paper" your analysis each day, and this will be a way to force me to do this. I'll try to do it nightly, but that might not happen (1 year old and a pregnant wife keep me busy ). Feel free to add your own analysis, and/or comment on mine. Positive and negative criticism is highly encouraged.

So, my thoughts for tomorrow....

Cable took out stop above double top liquidity pool (as ICT mentioned in his tweet). Looking at a market maker sell profile, breaker set up, and OTE at big fig 1.5200. Currently price is exactly where I would like to take a trade, and this is a scenario that I struggle with sometimes. I want to keep myself disciplined to stay within the kill zones, so I'm gonna try and hold out and see if I still have a valid setup in a few hours.

And I'll be looking for some 15m divergence to confirm during LO.

Thoughts?

Matty

 

[matty44]

One other thought...

True breaker could be higher up, and at a different OTE level. And I actually like this fib better, cause I'm not pulling from a minor swing high within the over all range. So hopefully LO will give more clarity.

Matty

 

[the golden gun]

Great thread idea :thumbsup:

did you see it from this perspective at all?

 

[sqa]

"Breaker" is a Candle that's the start of a final setup move. Generally the launch-point of a Judas swing. It's Orders the "market" had to take to shove it to the position they wanted to assume. They are then going back to unwind that position. I.e. you've just pointed out a nice OB setup (an event that happens when they didn't get all of the Orders they wanted in on the first shot). It's a good position for an entry, but it's not the Breaker.

For this example, one of the breakers I've highlighted in the attachment.

 

[matty44]

Great thread idea :thumbsup:

did you see it from this perspective at all?

Thanks for the thought GG, but the way I look at it is that they used that +OB you mentioned to push price up into that liquidity pool, and once they gobble up all those stops, they're gonna use em to push price down. And based off the 1H SMT divergences posted below, the Cable had no reason to go up there, so that solidifies the fact that its an engineered move just to run stops, again, telling me that it wants to go lower. If I'm correct in thinking it may go lower here, I could see that OB turning into a breaker at some point in time (last pic attached).

Then again, based of what Sqa is saying, I may need some more studying on what truly constitutes a breaker

Matty

 

[matty44]

"Breaker" is a Candle that's the start of a final setup move. Generally the launch-point of a Judas swing. It's Orders the "market" had to take to shove it to the position they wanted to assume. They are then going back to unwind that position. I.e. you've just pointed out a nice OB setup (an event that happens when they didn't get all of the Orders they wanted in on the first shot). It's a good position for an entry, but it's not the Breaker.

For this example, one of the breakers I've highlighted in the attachment.

I guess I don't see the difference between the OB you posted and called a breaker and the two OBs I posted that I called possible breakers. Both seem to have been used to run price up to grab stops that could be used for a potential larger move downward, no???

Matty

PS - just got in on the cable retracement of what was hopefully the judas swing. We'll see what happens...

Thanks for the input guys!

 

[matty44]

Also, just thought this was of note...

Overlapping 61.8% fibs used for entry. So far its had a nice little reaction. Gotta go to bed to get some sleep for the real (only for now 8) ) job.

Matty

 

[walshman]

Also, just thought this was of note...

Overlapping 61.8% fibs used for entry. So far its had a nice little reaction. Gotta go to bed to get some sleep for the real (only for now 8) ) job.

Matty

Hi Matty great thread :thumbsup:
There is a large liquidity pool above 1.5270 :cashjump: combine that with BOE interest rate decision today we need to be patient. onder:

 

[the golden gun]

When you wakeup and realize you've been stopped out, you'll probably begin to sympathize with my personal frustrations in using SMT divergences. lol >

also, you'll probably be asking "what happened???" and the answer is Market Structure. You're ignoring it.

 

[marzullo63]

According to his analysis he's been stopped out..., there we go.
Probably they want to run stops till 1.53 prior or during the rate release, then it will drop.
The SMT divergence is still there at 1H.

 

[matty44]

Yeah....so, looks like it pretty much shot straight up as soon as I shut the screen off :-\

Yes, I was going against market structure, but that's something I struggle with too. If you look at the 27th/28th, MS was broken to the upside on the 4h and daily just to take stops out above the 22nd and then had a big sell off. How do y'all look stop raids on higher TFs? Always trust MS? Michael says to look for the stops and think like smart money.

I'm not blaming SMT for that one though. After the divergence on the 1h charts, the cable dropped 80+ pips...I just thought it would keep dropping. There actually wasn't any SMT divergence in LO to confirm the sell, and maybe that was the problem

Matty

 

[rod178]

I only use SMT as a confirmation tool and was looking for a Long Cable, which was confirmed with m15 SMT.

I mostly only use m15 SMT starting at the beginning of the CBDR, up to the end of the AS. Missed the trade today, as I wanted an entry from a spike below the AR low. Price reversed off the AR mid point. Mid Blue Fiber, Light Blue inverted USDX. Red Cable. Feed Forex.LTD demo

 

[matty44]

According to his analysis he's been stopped out..., there we go.
Probably they want to run stops till 1.53 prior or during the rate release, then it will drop.
The SMT divergence is still there at 1H.

There's that big ol' bearish 4H OB sitting above the double (triple) top around 1.5270, but the question for me then becomes, would you sell into it for a NY reversal trade???

Matty

 

[matty44]

I only use SMT as a confirmation tool and was looking for a Long Cable, which was confirmed with m15 SMT.

I mostly only use m15 SMT starting at the beginning of the CBDR, up to the end of the AS. Missed the trade today, as I wanted an entry from a spike below the AR low. Price reversed off the AR mid point. Mid Blue Fiber, Light Blue inverted USDX. Red Cable. Feed Forex.LTD demo

Guess I wasn't picking up on that divergence...

In regards to my previous post, I guess the answer for me was...YES, you do trade a NY reversal. Price did sweep those highs @ 1.5270, and I used an ICT reflection pattern + that bearish OB I mentioned + institutional 1.5280 + SMT divergence (both with the USDX and Fiber) to sell...

But I'm going against MS, so I'll probably be blasted out soon.

Matty

BTW, at the same time price dipped into a bullish OB and OTE for the fiber that I might have taken for a NYO continuation long had I not been eyeing the stop run on the Cable. Will see which one woulda been the better trade shortly I believe...

 

[the golden gun]

Guess I wasn't picking up on that divergence...

In regards to my previous post, I guess the answer for me was...YES, you do trade a NY reversal. Price did sweep those highs @ 1.5270, and I used an ICT reflection pattern + that bearish OB I mentioned + institutional 1.5280 + SMT divergence (both with the USDX and Fiber) to sell...

But I'm going against MS, so I'll probably be blasted out soon.

Matty

BTW, at the same time price dipped into a bullish OB and OTE for the fiber that I might have taken for a NYO continuation long had I not been eyeing the stop run on the Cable. Will see which one woulda been the better trade shortly I believe...

SMACK.

check twitter for advanced calling of Stops @ 5270-5300

your stop became part of that cluster.

That 4H block I noted paid off quite well, eh?

 

[outthislife]

Hmm what's the point of the HTF directional bias if it's violated so often?

Is intermediate-term market structure more important for what we do?

 

[the golden gun]

Hmm what's the point of the HTF directional bias if it's violated so often?

Is intermediate-term market structure more important for what we do?

we hit a bullish block on the daily chart.

it's the same thing as when structure on the 5m chart gets broken because we hit an order block on the Hourly.

The concepts are fractal, you have to consider everything at once in order to get the highest odds of success.

 

[matty44]

SMACK.

check twitter for advanced calling of Stops @ 5270-5300

your stop became part of that cluster.

That 4H block I noted paid off quite well, eh?

Yeah, sure did. But I don't know how we know which liquidity pool price will shoot for on any given day, ya know? How come taking out the most recent double top was enough to fuel a down move on the 27th/28th but yesterday/today we had to take out the most recent and then just have a small retrace to go up to the 1.5270-1.5300 level??? I would think SMT divergence should help distinguish, but I think you may disagree...what are your thoughts on knowing which pool of stops will be run?

Matty

 

[outthislife]

we hit a bullish block on the daily chart.

it's the same thing as when structure on the 5m chart gets broken because we hit an order block on the Hourly.

The concepts are fractal, you have to consider everything at once in order to get the highest odds of success.

Oh, snap. Perfectly at 1.5 too.

Need to GTFO the 15m charts.

 

[the golden gun]

Oh, snap. Perfectly at 1.5 too.

Need to GTFO the 15m charts.

15m charts are great... just don't start there ;D