Fundamentals (funnymentals) & Sentiment


AusDoc

Well-Known Member
A thread where assorted non-technical material and ideas can be presented and discussed. Alright, maybe castigated and lampooned may be closer to the case at times but that's fine too.

Starting off with some interesting discussion on the current exceptionally low volatility in FX.



I'm not sure I like the idea of a significant macro shock to shake up the FX markets.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Something for all the EUR traders to be aware of.

German Bund yield falls to lowest on record, at 1.12%:

Source: Reuters

Price follows yield. :)
 

sqa

Village Scribe
Not sure I'm looking forward to a global "macro" event either, but we know it's going to happen. You can't just print money and "improve" the economy. You can avoid paying the piper for a while, but, eventually, he'll be paid. Either in reality or blood. There's just no other way.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
sqa said:
Not sure I'm looking forward to a global "macro" event either, but we know it's going to happen. You can't just print money and "improve" the economy. You can avoid paying the piper for a while, but, eventually, he'll be paid. Either in reality or blood. There's just no other way.
In that vein, here is Prechter's view.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

Mark Twain made this quote popular in the bear market years of the early 1900s, before the Roaring Twenties, before the 1929 stock market crash that preceded the Great Depression.

We believe it is the perfect quote to frame a market crash on the horizon even bigger and more dangerous than 1929 (for those who are unprepared).

Robert Prechter calls it the Silent Crash.

Knowing about the Silent Crash will allow you to see, understand and protect yourself from the biggest lie in stock market history. If you are savvy, resilient and a bit lucky, knowing about the Silent Crash will also allow you to prosper as others suffer, which in turn will allow you to help others through the difficult times ahead.

What does Mark Twain have to do with anything? As market technicians, we put enormous value on timely financial and economic statistics, data. Part of that responsibility includes knowing how to use data properly.

For instance, are you aware of the numerous ways to measure the real value of your stock market shares? Many investors are not.

The most popular measure of share value -- the way the government and virtually everyone else prefers -- is nominal value, in terms of U.S. dollars. This measure of value is what you see on the financial news and on most market charts.

Another way -- the way we prefer -- is real value, in terms of the things you can actually buy with your Dow shares, such as real money (gold) or a basket of commodities. Yet another way to measure real value is in terms of the Producers Price Index, or PPI, which serves to adjust nominal values for inflation.

Do you know what the real value of today's Dow Jones Industrial Average looks like in terms of real money?

Would you believe us if we told you the real value of the Dow, measured in terms of real money (gold), is just 266? Believe it!

"The Dow priced in real money -- gold -- topped in 1999 and has collapsed 84% since then. ..." reveals Bob Prechter in his June issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. "Had the U.S. maintained honest money, the Dow would be priced at 266 today."

So despite recent all-time nominal highs, the reality is that zero real progress was made during the past 14 years. In fact, the stock market actually lost ground -- and LOTS of it -- that is, if you care about how much stuff your Dow shares are actually worth.

In other words, even as nominal prices climbed to new highs in 2007, 2011 and 2014, real values remained in a bear market the entire time -- for nearly a decade and a half now.
Source: Attached (Warning: Typical Prechter)
 

Attachments

the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
Alpha-Bet said:
and via the swipe of a card or a mobile phone...

fiat digitalised currency.
oh of course, who could forget? Because cash is used by criminals. If you have cash, you're probably a criminal.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Alpha-Bet said:
fiat digitalised currency.
The way of the future.

Did you catch the recent news that Israel investigated the feasibility of moving to 100% digital currency and concluded they should give it a go? Was just before their current distraction.
 

the golden gun

RINSE & REPEAT
AusDoc said:
The way of the future.

Did you catch the recent news that Israel investigated the feasibility of moving to 100% digital currency and concluded they should give it a go? Was just before their current distraction.
Yeah I saw that, it made me want to vomit.

Ever had your bank account frozen due to "suspicious activity"? It is quite alarming when said activity was simply purchasing something from 2 different cities on the same day...
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
before GFC hit the fan, US treasury stopped reporting on M3 money supply in late 2006.


fiat digitisation is now.
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
the golden gun said:
Ever had your bank account frozen due to "suspicious activity"? It is quite alarming when said activity was simply purchasing something from 2 different cities on the same day...
Not frozen exactly, but near enough. I got a phone call from "Wespac Card Centre" explaining their detection of suspicious activity and offering (bless them) to freeze my card. Seems it was suspicious that I had made purchases on the same day in Australia and the US. I told the nice lady all about the internet. ;D

What gets me is that they claim this freezing is to protect the customer but that's not true. Due to the agreements between the Card companies and the issuing banks, it is the bank that wears the costs of fraudulent activity. So they are protecting themselves while inconveniencing customers.
 

Alpha-Bet

Well-Known Member
AusDoc said:
Yes, it's here now. I mean in future that's the only fiat we'll have (apart from the odd Italian vehicle or two).
so back to your initial party starter..... why the quiet? setting the books?
 

AusDoc

Well-Known Member
Alpha-Bet said:
so back to your initial party starter..... why the quiet? setting the books?
Good question. I just don't have enough data to think it through very sensibly. I'm not persuaded by most of the conspiracy ideas. I could imagine a few high-level committees pondering what-if scenarios, but there should probably be many of these and few would actually be comparing notes.

It looks a bit like this stage last century. The world is poised on the verge of massive developments in multiple fields, offering all kinds of benefits. At the same time there is a distinct uptick in global geopolitical tensions and armed conflict and the risk of significant history-making deterioration is quite real.

When you factor in the potential cause of, or cover for, some serious reset to global politics and finance it makes one wonder what may be happening before our very eyes. The US is not the only country in a dramatic mess that could need a dramatic resolution.

I remain an optimist though. I think the tensions will settle and people will get on with daily life and I look forward to some of those advances taking off over the next few years. Now, where did I put my Mars Mission ticket for safe keeping...

...and yeah, alfas are good :)
 

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