Sell into that turtle soup, small risk big reward.
I'm standing in front of an 8 day freight train with only a trend line to defend me.
The only other thing going for the trade is what Simple called BS (context).
I have to weigh whether over the weekend the probability lies in favour of the DPRK making a trade deal with Trump, or that there could be more dud fireworks and whether USD will find a new bunch of buyers.
Final post on trend lines, AJ still discounts any value - I decided to let price do the talking.
The discounting of context is imo a significant reason that pattern traders can lose. The sell turtle soup (stop run) pattern that I highlighted in real time was a loser, but there was the same pattern, same day, just a little later that gave a buy at the 1226.50 with marginal downside and huge upside.
The daily trend line in Gold was merely a reference point for the bot/traders to buy - look at USDX, it was falling along with Gold, even gapped down April 24 along with USDX, next day down for USD and big down day for Gold.
It was clear that there was an absence of USD buyers, the bots just needed a reference point for Gold buys.
So it wasn't the trend line that was protecting me from the freight train. it was the absence of USD buyers.
I have extended the trend line, so the question is would I now sell on the MS break - or buy at the trend line (1226.50)
I have never seen any ICT videos on order blocks, but I'm guessing that they are small areas of consolidation. Back then I extended the 15min trend line right to one of these areas, figured they were buying more right there, 3 times price reached down there and was bought.
All from a line on a chart.