I was expecting since Setp '21 more or less BTC to fall down to the 28-24K to buy again. I am really happing that it has dropped even lower, as ETH has done obviously at its own scale.
After a well defined sell program (inside the box), I personally was expecting market to deliver all these long positions near the top (I thought we would not have a second higher high) below level 2. It is easy to do if you sell short or just make or let prices go lower.
So if my first target was something between 28K and 24K, below the lows at #2, the next area were you can find extensive open interest would be the accumulation at #1, quite obvious and a next level to buy more Bitcoin.
The structure is still bearish, but the program is different from the one within the box, more straightforward and only time will tell if it will be quicker than it or not.
I would like to see now prices bouncing off the current area, but not breaking relevant highs yet and, ideally, creating a second drop to move closer to the 14-10K area, hopefully lower. A good chance to buy more Bitcoin.
At the end, you do not need fancy analytcis to decipher what is going on in the markets always and in any case. Markets are buying massively at this moment, markets are so full of Bitcoin that they are going to explode, buyers are in complete power of markets and you can see it because prices are falling deeply.
So, to summarize, the most probable scenario is still a new drop imho, but first we will see most likely a small recovery just to induce traders to buy thinking that #1 was an old resistance now becoming suport. I call this the "Poor retail trader's S/R levels".
Anyways, anything can happen, and the only way for one to beat any market is to use all the chart for trading. And Bitcoin allows you to.
I do not use stop losses, nor leverage, nor derivatives with Bitcoin. There is no need for it. All the chart is mine, no one can take me out from it or, at least, prices cannot. Neither time. What would I lose if Bitcoin would die an prices would reach zero? Probably the same that anyone using a stop loss after it is triggered. Think about that.
Bitcoin is the easiest asset I know for trading. I usually trade indices or FX intraday and Bitcoin is really a very easy one.