foreigner said:
Seriously? youre suggesting that its a time of year thing?! Dude, come on, I wasnt born yesterday...
Im thinking I wasnt reading the swing correctly, I was projecting my preconception on the market rather than looking at the structure of the current price swing and the possibility of a retrace.
Price did go up, but not before some re balancing.
This was based on what he said before, he quoted Larry Williams in the statement that markets tend to rally going into Xmas.
However in a webinar he states that he doesn't trade very much into Dec, the first time I encountered him he said he was done after a week into Dec and that he had closed his last trade from Nov going into that first week of Dec. Then he urged people that if your going to trade use half your risk maybe less than your standard.
However, he said that's just him, you can still make money as long as you can see the setups to which browsing thru the forums at bp showed a lot of the traders were still trading. Success rate was that of pretty much 60-40? More than half won due to a reference to the seasonal tendency chart and levels etc.
I'm not saying you can't trade I'm just saying ICT stated in a webinar that he doesn't trade much into Dec. Just take caution like lower your risk and definitive setups.
Also ovidiux, it's a loose thing, yes you shouldn't be jumping into a hasty trade when you see those moves starting to happen during those major news events. But if you have something like a key level or you got an OTE before the release it can help catapult your trade faster.
I've personally sat in NFP trades, in USD/CAD for example the volatility is erratic some days its 20 pips max, 50 pips is considered a pretty large average day, 80-100+ pips to me would be considered a huge market event. My trades would usually occur moments before and sometimes thanks to Oanda's widened spread it would come and stop me out at my entry, to which on oanda is 20 pips away sometimes, go right to the number on my entry and then make a 180 and go. You can do it but I think he advised against it until you've watched enough of them to say ok, I can get in LO take my 30 pips, hold 1/3 for whatever the nfp brings.
In cases like GDP or Interest Rates sometimes they occur in the LO kill zone. You just gotta make sure that you look for the judas swing to get the OTE and not buy or sell on the opposing asia breaks unless you know for damn sure it isn't the judas swing. Your just looking for the tele-tale signs for like an expected sell on major news. Asian range trend up, asian range high is broken, killzone confirmed break, US t-notes says rise (or lower depending if you don't look at them inverted like I do), COT has been releasing sells/has major shorts/ is not quite diametrically opposed but definitely a good sum of shorts, Market Structure is down or broken, USDx is up or down coming on a level or making an OTE, Correlation shows this is the weakest. Etc Etc.
