Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - InnerCircleTrader

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jinirav75 said:
Looking at Weekly and Daily, it seems like Euro is now going down towards the 1.2800 level. I am seeing a nice MMP sell model which began it's journey @ 1.2800 level (recall that was during the much anticipated Fed tapering news) and now completed more than half of it's journey and to be completed in the next 2-3 weeks. COT and MS supports my view. Any thoughts?
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I would agree with you about Fiber reaching 1.280level, anyways ill be looking just for sells. By the way don't forget and Cable , if you look at Weekly chart it might be that we are forming long term high + for the last couple of days it was easier to trade cable... just my 2cents.
 
Agree. Similar price action in GBP and Commercials are reducing their long position in GBP too. Possible reversals in working.
 
jinirav75 said:
Looking at Weekly and Daily, it seems like Euro is now going down towards the 1.2800 level. I am seeing a nice MMP sell model which began it's journey @ 1.2800 level (recall that was during the much anticipated Fed tapering news) and now completed more than half of it's journey and to be completed in the next 2-3 weeks. COT and MS supports my view. Any thoughts?
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Did you checked the USDX/seasonal's and current HTF range OTE's? Because on the way down theres a very strong support at htf ote with a very big figure.Caution advised.

jinirav75 said:
Agree. Similar price action in GBP and Commercials are reducing their long position in GBP too. Possible reversals in working.
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The Euro they shorted a bit.On the cable they added 3000 long contracts to an overall net long.And on the usdx they are a bit lessening their shorts. But who knows. :)

Edit: And there's also a premium on the euro.A bit muddy right now i would say.
 
could somebody pliz explain in the most detailed way,if possible with examples how you use the cot,because i see your using numbers, that 3000 longs were added etc,i basically use pricecharts com,looks like your sysyem is detailed,thanks
 
Sybrand Im familiar with looking for changes in COT and open interest from having seen past ICT videos. This is one of the reasons Im still holding a short from 13448 on the Euro.

EuroShort_zpsdc1691b4.jpg


From what I can tell the most useful data is the change in weekly used for significant changes in seasonal trend.

What I fail to see is how you spot profit taking as presumably this could be used to further anticipate a major turn?

Sybrand said:
Also note that they sometimes open new positions in the opposite direction before taking profits on their old ones.
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Could you possibly give me an example of profit taking? that would be most useful thanks.
 
piptech said:
could somebody pliz explain in the most detailed way,if possible with examples how you use the cot,because i see your using numbers, that 3000 longs were added etc,i basically use pricecharts com,looks like your sysyem is detailed,thanks
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Piptech I can see were your frustration comes from when newbies talk about things out of context, it raises more questions than it answers.

Heres what I know with regards to COT, there may be more to it but this is just my understanding.

Basically, if the red line goes up commercials are increasing long positions and decreasing shorts and visa versa, it doesnt really matter if they are net long or short, what we look for is a sharp increase or decrease in their position to confirm our technical bias.

Take the Euro for example, as price approached the recent high of 13450 the commercials were actually reducing their long position, also Volume and open interest fell which indicated (to me at least) that the uptrend was weakening.

Add to this the SMT divergence, Bond yield divergence, reflection level, institutional level, time and price etc. etc. and I have reason to take a short with a view to holding the position long term.

As we learn we become accustomed to stare at the chart we're trading but it pays to have a wider perspective. It does take some time to get used to, but as you watch the market play out keep one eye on the intermarket statistics and divergences, you will begin to get a feel for how it can (and cant) help.
 
foreigner said:
Piptech I can see were your frustration comes from when newbies talk about things out of context, it raises more questions than it answers.

Heres what I know with regards to COT, there may be more to it but this is just my understanding.

Basically, if the red line goes up commercials are increasing long positions and decreasing shorts and visa versa, it doesnt really matter if they are net long or short, what we look for is a sharp increase or decrease in their position to confirm our technical bias.

Take the Euro for example, as price approached the recent high of 13450 the commercials were actually reducing their long position, also Volume and open interest fell which (indicated to me at least) that the uptrend was weakening.

Add to this the SMT divergence, Bond yield divergence, reflection level, institutional level, time and price etc. etc. and I have reason to take a short with a view to holding the position long term.

As we learn we become accustomed to stare at the chart we're trading but it pays to have a wider perspective. It does take some time to get used to, but as you watch the market play out keep one eye on the intermarket statistics and divergences, you will begin to get a feel for how it can (and cant) help.
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Don't forget extreme net short or long positions as that is probably the most influential position the commercials can take on.
 
Guys is the 3rd video in ICT's latest series out yet? I can't find it on youtube? Did he upload it to his same youtube account?
 
foreigner said:
Sybrand Im familiar with looking for changes in COT and open interest from having seen past ICT videos. This is one of the reasons Im still holding a short from 13448 on the Euro.

EuroShort_zpsdc1691b4.jpg


From what I can tell the most useful data is the change in weekly used for significant changes in seasonal trend.

What I fail to see is how you spot profit taking as presumably this could be used to further anticipate a major turn?

Could you possibly give me an example of profit taking? that would be most useful thanks.
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Look back over the History. Look from a major market turn to the next major turn. You'll see that if price, for example, went up that shorts were sometimes added before longs were taken out. It is almost as if they are uncertain at certain areas. If the COT commercial data could have been seen as one person it is as if they sometimes start "hedging" their own position before closing the initial long trades.

The other thing about money moving around is simply the fact that all pairs' COT commercial data doesn't change at the same time. For example they start going long on the USDx the 1st week (Major increase in long positions or major close in shorts) and in the 2nd week they might add longs to the EUR or vica versa.

These things won't give you much more of an edge than understanding what you already do. It does in fact prove useful for psychological approval and that in itself can be an edge.
 
piptech said:
thanks very insightful ordering book by Larry Williams on cot
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The way I use it is I look at which is more weighted so right now the GBP has just enough more longs in it than the sells and inversely EUR has more sells than longs.

With that in mind you need to consider the magnitude of how much split they are because if you look at it the larger side is almost but not quite 2x what the small side is. It gets a little more complicated than this.

Then consider are they buying or selling? They can be heavily weighted to one side but shit doesn't happen they just keep acquiring more and more then they stop and start releasing and you'll see a directional move happen.

It sounds simple as that but you need to consider the multitude of factors I really don't have the energy or the resource (not at home computer) to compile something more in depth but the gist is comms buy and are heavy net long you go long and vice versa it's the simplest I can explain without getting more complicated and it's slightly more complicated than I explained so pull from multiple sources and compare the information with your own research
 
Piper said:
Did you checked the USDX/seasonal's and current HTF range OTE's? Because on the way down theres a very strong support at htf ote with a very big figure.Caution advised.

The Euro they shorted a bit.On the cable they added 3000 long contracts to an overall net long.And on the usdx they are a bit lessening their shorts. But who knows. :)

Edit: And there's also a premium on the euro.A bit muddy right now i would say.
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Thank you. I mainly day trade on a HTF perspective. Can someone explain the months and seasons ICT refers in his video? I am a bit confused as our summer and winter are different from what ICT refers to.
 
jinirav75 said:
Thank you. I mainly day trade on a HTF perspective. Can someone explain the months and seasons ICT refers in his video? I am a bit confused as our summer and winter are different from what ICT refers to.
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If you look at the seasonal chart of the Fibre you can see that we typically get a sharp sell off at the start of September and then a bull run until mid october;

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_eurusd.html
 
Sybrand,thanks for your explanation on cot,now regarding the excel file on cftc,how do you open eg, column D, to actually see the figures and not the codes,thanks again,i know it takes time to explain all this
 
piptech said:
Sybrand,thanks for your explanation on cot,now regarding the excel file on cftc,how do you open eg, column D, to actually see the figures and not the codes,thanks again,i know it takes time to explain all this
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2e3dgll.png


Click the select all cells block in the upper left corner.

Double click in-between any two columns.

Hope this helps :)
 
jinirav75 said:
Thanks. Does this imply the trends in those months were similar for the last 30 years?
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Yes mostly.But its just an average,not a pinpoint tool.If it agrees with your general analysis i would say that its a plus.
 
Sybrand,thanks again for all your assistance on cot data,plse allow me to ask how you digest the info and determine when commercials are long/short on a particular currency verses another and the amount,thanks again for using your valuable time to assist,
 
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