Simr said:I have another question for someone who is in the know. IN barchart.com when we see the COTS charts , for JPY futures , they are net long.
So does that mean USDJPY will head down ? or that USDJPY will head up. Because the price action 0ver the last year and a half of the JPY futures does not support USDJPY moving up.
Don't worry, this one screwed me up for a bit as well. The Futures Chart is Inverted from the Forex Chart. It's "USD-JPY", so the USD is the base currency, for Forex. The Future's Chart should be read as "JPY-USD", as it's actually a contract to Buy Yen for US Dollars.
The Commercials are "Net Long" from January 1, at a Decade Level, which corresponds to 105 on the USDJPY Forex Market. That's the point as which they went nutty amounts of "Long" on the Futures, which means "massive Short" in Forex.
I.e. it ain't getting back to that level any time soon. The pair really, really wants to run down, and it's poised to do it soon. However, we don't know when the BoJ will get really involved. If it hits 97, expect it to start getting nasty. Which is good for us, as it means a lot of volatility.