ICT Advanced Price Action Trading Concepts

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I'll know more Sunday after I sort through the week's data, especially the COT data. We're actually at the "start" of a 5 years COT "Sell" Program (Futures are flipped for Yen reading, which I hadn't realized was screwing me up for a few weeks). However, they unwound 1/2 of that position during January, which is why the pair slammed so hard. Which does contribute a whole lot to the "muddle" problem.

For the time being, it's still a Bull Market Structure, and we Retraced & Collected at an Order Block. And, God help me, was getting the right position hard this week. Of course it helps when I don't forget an important S&R on my Main Chart, which I had on a secondary one. :-[
 
sqa said:
Of course it helps when I don't forget an important S&R on my Main Chart, which I had on a secondary one. :-[
I have done that as well. Hopefully we learn from our mistakes. ;)
 
hi ICT i am studying your 8 part course and i have a question

in the fibonacci set up what levels have you inserted? there are two columns, "level" and description" wanted to know the what the levels are

thanks
 
I made a joke to myself that the only way I was being tapped out of my Yen trade was if Russia invaded Ukraine.

ARGH! :mad:
 
ICT once quoted "its in the charts" this is what i call a sell signal, in the charts...

small cogs, turn the big cogs, remember that...
 

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feroz said:
hi ICT i am studying your 8 part course and i have a question

in the fibonacci set up what levels have you inserted? there are two columns, "level" and description" wanted to know the what the levels are

thanks

you need to watch all hes vids, twice

these are the levels, i have added levels to them also

FIB LEVELS 0.0 TO 3.0
0.0 :: %$ :: ZERO
0.5 :: %$ :: FIFTY
0.62 :: %$ :: OTE
0.705 :: %$ :: SWEET SPOT
0.79 :: %$ :: OTE
1.0 :: %$ :: ONE HUNDRED
1.27 :: %$ :: EXT 1
1.62 :: %$ :: EXT 2
2.0 :: %$ :: TWO HUNDRED
2.27 :: %$ :: EXT 3
2.62 :: %$ :: EXT 4
3.0 :: %$ :: THREE HUNDRED

0.38 :: %$ :: OTE
0.295 :: %$ :: SWEET SPOT
0.21 :: %$ :: OTE
 
AUDJPY has not given up much of last months gains, like other yen pairs have already ???
 
Simple price pattern, that tells you where you can exit your trade, if you bought this pair,
making 30 pips for a day trade. i did not trade this, it is just an example of price movement.
The more you study price action with out S&R, fibs, trend lines, or news, the better you will be able to envisage it 8)
 

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RE - Video, i think US equities will get smashed, major investors in the these markets will be throwing profits into other currencies and equity markets, possibly putting currencies into a spin, throwing things out of wack, until things settle again with new trends being established.
it could take some time before things are back into the norm, if they ever do get back into the norm. We could be on the brink of a global shift in all types of things big and small. Judas swings in currencies could last some time, Pound could be one of them if ICT is right about pound heading for higher highs. Whats to say fiber wont drop at the same time the Dollar drops either. Investors could drive the dollar down before the Dollar becomes invested in again. Where does that leave Aussie? fundamentally Aussie should be heading lower again...
 
Ah, okay, that PM makes a bit more sense now. You're transitioning into the sight-recognition phase of your Trading Development.

Anyone found a Bond Chart other than Bloomberg? Open to suggestions. I found one that let's me overlay the US T-bill yields, but not other nations.
 
On US Equities, part of the long run up has simply been down to the devulation (reflected in the USDX) by the Fed via QE. With most of the Fed printing done, we're looking at a "new normal" forming. I don't know exactly what that will look like, but it could be a lot of things.

There's also the issue that the commercials are Net Short again on the USDX. Though it might just be that Equities and USDX are going to decouple for a while. Could definitely see a big, big sell-off/Crash in the Equities. Then we get to hear the complaints about crashing 401k's again. That'll be unfun.
 
I have a question for you, Michael. Hopefully you can share some insight due to your experience.

WHY IS THE MARKET SO UNBELIEVABLY SLOW THIS PAST YEAR!?

Maybe it hasn't been the full year - but I've noticed that the daily ranges have been contracting more and more every month - the current ADR on the cable, for instance, is something like 75 pips. I remember back when I started trading (before the 2008 stuff hit), the market was moving around 120 pips/day on the cable - and roughly the same on the fiber as well. Now we're lucky to see 50+pips on the fiber, and 80+ pips on the cable.

The real question, though, is do you have any rough estimation for when things will pick up again, and the daily ranges will expand to something reasonable? Have you ever seen the forex market with ranges this small? If so - how long did it last?

I remember learning that the 70-80 pip days were the ones that you really wanted to happen, because it meant you were going to have one of those fantastic 150+ pip days shortly (small ranges - big ranges, yadda yadda). Now it seems like 70-80 pip days ARE the big ranges. It's a bit depressing knowing that the standard 30 pips per trade is now nearing 50% or more of the average daily range, as opposed to the 25-30% it used to be.
 
I have noticed this too. It is annoying, and I'm sure volatility will pick up (likely just when you've gotten used to this low-range crap) eventually.

In the meantime you can simply reduce your stop loss to regain old R:R ratios. After all... lack of volatility works both ways, so tighten those stops! Albeit this makes the spread cost a bigger chunk of your profit but hey, Adaptability is the name of the game.

While the USD has lost its volatilty, I would say there's some markets that have actually picked up in volatility during the same time period. AUD and JPY are putting in better ranges these days, so you might be able to remember the good old times playing AUD/JPY or EUR/JPY (GBP/JPY if you really want a wild ride).

Just keep an eye on the news... the next volatility-inducing crisis is always just around the corner ; )
 
Not just this past year actually, its been trending down over the last several years. I've thought about this as well, but have no answer.



Aarnog said:
I have a question for you, Michael. Hopefully you can share some insight due to your experience.

WHY IS THE MARKET SO UNBELIEVABLY SLOW THIS PAST YEAR!?

Maybe it hasn't been the full year - but I've noticed that the daily ranges have been contracting more and more every month - the current ADR on the cable, for instance, is something like 75 pips. I remember back when I started trading (before the 2008 stuff hit), the market was moving around 120 pips/day on the cable - and roughly the same on the fiber as well. Now we're lucky to see 50+pips on the fiber, and 80+ pips on the cable.

The real question, though, is do you have any rough estimation for when things will pick up again, and the daily ranges will expand to something reasonable? Have you ever seen the forex market with ranges this small? If so - how long did it last?

I remember learning that the 70-80 pip days were the ones that you really wanted to happen, because it meant you were going to have one of those fantastic 150+ pip days shortly (small ranges - big ranges, yadda yadda). Now it seems like 70-80 pip days ARE the big ranges. It's a bit depressing knowing that the standard 30 pips per trade is now nearing 50% or more of the average daily range, as opposed to the 25-30% it used to be.
 

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Aarnog said:
I have a question for you, Michael. Hopefully you can share some insight due to your experience.

WHY IS THE MARKET SO UNBELIEVABLY SLOW THIS PAST YEAR!?

Maybe it hasn't been the full year - but I've noticed that the daily ranges have been contracting more and more every month - the current ADR on the cable, for instance, is something like 75 pips. I remember back when I started trading (before the 2008 stuff hit), the market was moving around 120 pips/day on the cable - and roughly the same on the fiber as well. Now we're lucky to see 50+pips on the fiber, and 80+ pips on the cable.

The real question, though, is do you have any rough estimation for when things will pick up again, and the daily ranges will expand to something reasonable? Have you ever seen the forex market with ranges this small? If so - how long did it last?

I remember learning that the 70-80 pip days were the ones that you really wanted to happen, because it meant you were going to have one of those fantastic 150+ pip days shortly (small ranges - big ranges, yadda yadda). Now it seems like 70-80 pip days ARE the big ranges. It's a bit depressing knowing that the standard 30 pips per trade is now nearing 50% or more of the average daily range, as opposed to the 25-30% it used to be.
The market is waiting for us to become consistently profitable.

Also, it gives us some room for errors due to bad risk management and stop loss placement. Imagine what would happen with all ICT followers if every day would be a 150 pips day and you're not up to speed yet with the tools and stop loss placement ...

Ok, just kidding ;) But like golden gun suggest, you can tighten your stop loss, find pairs out of your comfort zone with larger ranges, or just day trade to get your weekly amount of pips.
My aim is 75 (positive :p ) pips/week, so I'm still ok with it. Most pairs do 150/200 pips per week still.
 
Lower volatility does help you improve your accuracy, as one "good trade" won't just outright make up for several bad misses. Though ICT has even said this is the tightest market he's ever seen. (Which hasn't been bad to learn in, as I just started, but I've got 0 skill at Trending markets at the moment, haha)

When it comes back is when something blows up. The US Market is, at best, in the doldrums until we get a new President. We basically don't have any Law covering 16% of our GDP (the Health Care Market), but the whim of the Department of Health & Human Services. This is why the 5% drop in the Labor Rate won't be closed for years, if ever, and that mains the major currency driver in Forex is in the muddle.

The Euro-land currencies are doing okay right now, but there's a whole lot of whistling past the grave at the moment. Japan is almost in a complete bind due to the debt (even if it's a safe-haven currency right now), China has another Bank Debt Bubble it's currently trying to hide and North Korea is being a pain in the ass.

Most of the advanced economies are getting "old", looking at peak Tax Base in just a few years. The developing economies are mired the same problems they've been mired in since the end of the Cold War. But there's a whole lot more cell phones.

This is just the muddle, though. Something will "break", it always does. The world is rapidly changing due to Fracking. If someone announces a "cheap" desalinization technology, the geopolitical structure of a huge part of the world changes. Or one of the advanced economies truly goes belly up.

When will the volatility return? Hard to say. We're headed into a "new normal", of which we're just at the start. You don't know what tomorrow brings. As in a possible invasion of Ukraine, for instance.
 
Ok im calling it... long term from these levels April 2014
Fiber Down Parity 1.0000
Pound Down below 1.3500
Aussie Down
USDX Up
T note Yield way down, below 2012 low
US equities Crash, biggest in history

Not to fussed if i am wrong! 8)
 
First comes the Equities crash,
then comes the Fed with QE (full-retard edition),
then comes T-note yields way way down (negative perhaps?),
Then comes the exit of some Eurozone countries from the Euro (the weakest links),
then comes E/U above 1.5000 (after trimming the fat),
then comes G/U above 1.8000... (for England, James?)

But as a USD account holder, I hope I'm wrong! :)
 
Back onto the "Gold" story, if you look at equal legs down,
March High to April low, drop same distance from this weeks high,
Price could head for OTE, 2014 Yearly Open, institutional 1220 level, equal drop.
We ask not where price will go, but where does it want to get to, before heading back up to this current level again, then selling off even larger possibly
 
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